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Parti progressiste conservateur de l'Ontario

Mise à jour : 7 août 2026
ChefDoug Ford
Proportion du suffrage en 202543,0%
Projection de vote actuelle39,1% ± 4,7%
Nombre actuel de députés-es élus-es79
Projection de sièges actuelle60 [45-76]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Projection de sièges Projection du vote | 7 août 2026 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% Majorité : 63 sièges Efficacité du vote | PC Qc125 Ontario 4,1 siège/% [45-76] 39% ± 5% 2018 2025
Remarque : la fonction de sièges par vote, ou l'efficacité du vote, n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme telle sur des intervalles de vote étroits.

Projection du vote | 7 août 2026

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 34,3% ▼ 39,1% ± 4,7% ▼ 2025 43,0% Max. 43,8% ▼ Probabilités % PC

Projection de sièges | 7 août 2026

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 3% 2% 1% Min. 45 ▼ 60 ▼ Majority 63 seats Max. 76 ▼ 2025 80 seats Probabilities % PC

Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti progressiste conservateur de l'Ontario



Circonscriptions Parti actuel Projection
1.
Timmins
George Pirie
 PC PPCO solide
2.
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Michael Tibollo
 PC PPCO solide
3.
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Nolan Quinn
 PC PPCO solide
4.
Kenora—Rainy River
Greg Rickford
 PC PPCO solide
5.
Essex
Anthony Leardi
 PC PPCO solide
6.
Nipissing
Vic Fedeli
 PC PPCO solide
7.
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Trevor Jones
 PC PPCO solide
8.
Sarnia—Lambton
Bob Bailey
 PC PPCO solide
9.
King—Vaughan
Stephen Lecce
 PC PPCO solide
10.
York—Simcoe
Caroline Mulroney
 PC PPCO solide
11.
Oxford
Ernie Hardeman
 PC PPCO solide
12.
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Billy Denault
 PC PPCO solide
13.
Thornhill
Laura Smith
 PC PPCO solide
14.
Brantford—Brant
Will Bouma
 PC PPCO solide
15.
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Rob Flack
 PC PPCO solide
16.
Etobicoke North
Doug Ford
 PC PPCO solide
17.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Laurie Scott
 PC PPCO solide
18.
Dufferin—Caledon
Sylvia Jones
 PC PPCO probable
19.
Barrie—Innisfil
Andrea Khanjin
 PC PPCO probable
20.
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Stephen Pinsonneault
 PC PPCO probable
21.
Markham—Unionville
Billy Pang
 PC PPCO probable
22.
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
Steve Clark
 PC PPCO probable
23.
Niagara West
Sam Oosterhoff
 PC PPCO probable
24.
Brampton North
Graham Mcgregor
 PC PPCO probable
25.
Simcoe North
Jill Dunlop
 PC PPCO probable
26.
Windsor—Tecumseh
Andrew Dowie
 PC PPCO probable
27.
Huron—Bruce
Lisa Thompson
 PC PPCO probable
28.
York Centre
Michael Kerzner
 PC PPCO probable
29.
Brampton West
Amarjot Sandhu
 PC PPCO probable
30.
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Jess Dixon
 PC PPCO probable
31.
Durham
Todd Mccarthy
 PC PPCO probable
32.
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Kevin Holland
 PC PPCO probable
33.
Scarborough North
Raymond Cho
 PC PPCO probable
34.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Michael Parsa
 PC PPCO probable
35.
Brampton East
Hardeep Grewal
 PC PPCO probable
36.
Simcoe—Grey
Brian Saunderson
 PC PPCO probable
37.
Perth—Wellington
Matthew Rae
 PC PPCO probable
38.
Wellington—Halton Hills
Joseph Racinsky
 PC PPCO probable
39.
Algoma—Manitoulin
Bill Rosenberg
 PC PPCO probable
40.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Ric Bresee
 PC PPCO probable
41.
Northumberland—Peterborough South
David Piccini
 PC PPCO probable
42.
Brampton South
Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria
 PC PPCO probable
43.
Richmond Hill
Daisy Wai
 PC PPCO probable
44.
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Donna Skelly
 PC PPCO probable
45.
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
John Jordan
 PC PPCO enclin
46.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Paul Vickers
 PC PPCO enclin
47.
Brampton Centre
Charmaine Williams
 PC PPCO enclin
48.
Bay of Quinte
Tyler Allsopp
 PC PPCO enclin
49.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Mike Harris
 PC PPCO enclin
50.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Downey
 PC PPCO enclin
51.
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Vijay Thanigasalam
 PC PPCO enclin
52.
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Stéphane Sarrazin
 PC PPCO enclin
53.
Scarborough—Agincourt
Aris Babikian
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
54.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Neil Lumsden
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
55.
Markham—Thornhill
Logan Kanapathi
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
56.
Etobicoke Centre
Kinga Surma
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
57.
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Graydon Smith
 PC Pivot PC/PVO
58.
Carleton
George Darouze
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
59.
Mississauga—Malton
Deepak Anand
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
60.
Cambridge
Brian Riddell
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
61.
Hamilton Mountain
Monica Ciriello
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
62.
Markham—Stouffville
Paul Calandra
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
63.
Oakville North—Burlington
Effie Triantafilopoulos
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
64.
Scarborough Centre
David Smith
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
65.
Willowdale
Stan Cho
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
66.
Pickering—Uxbridge
Peter Bethlenfalvy
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
67.
Whitby
Lorne Coe
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
68.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Michelle Cooper
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
69.
Peterborough—Kawartha
Dave Smith
 PC PLO enclin
70.
York South—Weston
Mohamed Firin
 PC PLO enclin
71.
Sault Ste. Marie
Chris Scott [Élu avec le PC]
 I NPD enclin
72.
Milton
Zee Hamid
 PC PLO enclin
73.
Mississauga Centre
Natalia Kusendova
 PC PLO enclin
74.
Humber River—Black Creek
Tom Rakocevic
 N Pivot PC/NPD
75.
Newmarket—Aurora
Dawn Gallagher Murphy
 PC PLO enclin
76.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Nina Tangri
 PC PLO enclin
77.
Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Guy Bourgouin
 N NPD enclin
78.
Oakville
Stephen Crawford
 PC PLO enclin
79.
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Rudy Cuzzetto
 PC PLO enclin
80.
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Silvia Gualtieri
 PC PLO enclin
81.
Don Valley North
Jonathan Tsao
 L PLO probable
82.
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Sheref Sabawy
 PC PLO probable
83.
Burlington
Natalie Pierre
 PC PLO probable
84.
Ajax
Robert Cerjanec
 L PLO probable
85.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Lee Fairclough
 L PLO probable
86.
Niagara Centre
Jeff Burch
 N NPD probable
87.
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Sandy Shaw
 N NPD probable
88.
Kanata—Carleton
Karen Mccrimmon
 L PLO probable
89.
Timiskaming—Cochrane
John Vanthof
 N NPD probable
90.
Scarborough—Guildwood
Andrea Hazell
 L PLO probable
91.
St. Catharines
Jennie Stevens
 N NPD probable
92.
Oshawa
Jennifer French
 N NPD probable
93.
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Lise Vaugeois
 N NPD probable
94.
Sudbury
Jamie West
 N NPD probable
95.
Scarborough Southwest
Doly Begum
 N NPD probable
96.
Nepean
Tyler Watt
 L PLO probable
97.
Windsor West
Lisa Gretzky
 N NPD probable
98.
London—Fanshawe
Teresa Armstrong
 N NPD solide
99.
Nickel Belt
France Gélinas
 N NPD solide
100.
London West
Peggy Sattler
 N NPD solide
101.
Haldimand—Norfolk
Bobbi Ann Brady
 I IND solide
102.
London North Centre
Terence Kernaghan
 N NPD solide
103.
Kiiwetinoong
Sol Mamakwa
 N NPD solide
104.
Don Valley East
Adil Shamji
 L PLO solide
105.
Don Valley West
Stephanie Bowman
 L PLO solide
106.
Niagara Falls
Wayne J. Gates
 N NPD solide
107.
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Stephanie Smyth
 L PLO probable