Parti progressiste conservateur de l'Ontario
Dernière mise à jour: 4 avril 2024
Chef | Doug Ford |
Proportion du suffrage en 2022 | 40,8% |
Projection de vote actuelle | 38,6% ± 4,1% |
Nombre actuel de députés-es élus-es | 79 |
Projection de sièges actuelle | 73 [57-95] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Projection du vote | 4 avril 2024
Projection de sièges | 4 avril 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti progressiste conservateur de l'Ontario
Rang | Circonscriptions | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilités de victoire |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PPCO solide | >99% | |
2. | Timmins | PPCO solide | >99% | |
3. | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PPCO solide | >99% | |
4. | Kenora—Rainy River | PPCO solide | >99% | |
5. | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PPCO solide | >99% | |
6. | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes | PPCO solide | >99% | |
7. | York—Simcoe | PPCO solide | >99% | |
8. | Etobicoke North | PPCO solide | >99% | |
9. | Sarnia—Lambton | PPCO solide | >99% | |
10. | Essex | PPCO solide | >99% | |
11. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PPCO solide | >99% | |
12. | Huron—Bruce | PPCO solide | >99% | |
13. | Oxford | PPCO solide | >99% | |
14. | Elgin—Middlesex—London | PPCO solide | >99% | |
15. | Simcoe—Grey | PPCO solide | >99% | |
16. | Wellington—Halton Hills | PPCO solide | >99% | |
17. | Barrie—Innisfil | PPCO solide | >99% | |
18. | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | PPCO solide | >99% | |
19. | Dufferin—Caledon | PPCO solide | >99% | |
20. | Simcoe North | PPCO solide | >99% | |
21. | Bay of Quinte | PPCO solide | >99% | |
22. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington | PPCO solide | >99% | |
23. | Perth—Wellington | PPCO solide | >99% | |
24. | King—Vaughan | PPCO solide | >99% | |
25. | Whitby | PPCO solide | >99% | |
26. | Nipissing | PPCO solide | >99% | |
27. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PPCO solide | >99% | |
28. | Brantford—Brant | PPCO solide | >99% | |
29. | Niagara West | PPCO solide | >99% | |
30. | Flamborough—Glanbrook | PPCO solide | >99% | |
31. | Northumberland—Peterborough South | PPCO solide | >99% | |
32. | Windsor—Tecumseh | PPCO solide | >99% | |
33. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | PPCO solide | >99% | |
34. | Durham | PPCO solide | >99% | |
35. | Brampton West | PPCO solide | >99% | |
36. | Markham—Unionville | PPCO solide | >99% | |
37. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | PPCO solide | >99% | |
38. | Thornhill | PPCO probable | >99% | |
39. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | PPCO probable | >99% | |
40. | Carleton | PPCO probable | >99% | |
41. | Brampton South | PPCO probable | 99% | |
42. | Kitchener—Conestoga | PPCO probable | 99% | |
43. | Richmond Hill | PPCO probable | 99% | |
44. | Brampton Centre | PPCO probable | 99% | |
45. | Sault Ste. Marie | PPCO probable | 99% | |
46. | Brampton East | PPCO probable | 99% | |
47. | Brampton North | PPCO probable | 99% | |
48. | Pickering—Uxbridge | PPCO probable | 99% | |
49. | Cambridge | PPCO probable | 98% | |
50. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | PPCO probable | 98% | |
51. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | PPCO probable | 97% | |
52. | Scarborough North | PPCO probable | 97% | |
53. | Burlington | PPCO probable | 96% | |
54. | Newmarket—Aurora | PPCO probable | 95% | |
55. | Markham—Stouffville | PPCO probable | 92% | |
56. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | PPCO probable | 91% | |
57. | Mississauga—Malton | PPCO probable | 91% | |
58. | Oakville North—Burlington | PPCO probable | 90% | |
59. | Etobicoke Centre | PPCO enclin | 89% | |
60. | York Centre | PPCO enclin | 86% | |
61. | Markham—Thornhill | PPCO enclin | 84% | |
62. | Kanata—Carleton | PPCO enclin | 81% | |
63. | Scarborough—Agincourt | PPCO enclin | 75% | |
64. | Don Valley North | PPCO enclin | 72% | |
65. | Peterborough—Kawartha | PPCO enclin | 70% | |
66. | Mississauga—Streetsville | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 69% | |
67. | York South—Weston | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 68% | |
68. | Oakville | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 63% | |
69. | Niagara Centre | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 61% | |
70. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | Pivot PPCO/PVO | 58% | |
71. | Nepean | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 57% | |
72. | Milton | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 53% | |
73. | Willowdale | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 51% | |
74. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 50% | |
75. | Mississauga Centre | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 50% | |
76. | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 49% | |
77. | Scarborough Centre | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 48% | |
78. | Ajax | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 47% | |
79. | Timiskaming—Cochrane | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 46% | |
80. | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 44% | |
81. | Oshawa | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 41% | |
82. | St. Catharines | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 39% | |
83. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 38% | |
84. | Ottawa West—Nepean | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 36% | |
85. | Mushkegowuk—James Bay | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 33% | |
86. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 32% | |
87. | Windsor West | Pivot PPCO/NPD | 31% | |
88. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Pivot PLO/PPCO | 31% | |
89. | Algoma—Manitoulin | NPD enclin | 29% | |
90. | Eglinton—Lawrence | PLO enclin | 24% | |
91. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | NPD enclin | 23% | |
92. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PLO enclin | 21% | |
93. | London North Centre | NPD enclin | 13% | |
94. | Sudbury | Pivot PLO/PPCO/NPD | 13% | |
95. | Niagara Falls | NPD enclin | 12% | |
96. | London West | NPD enclin | 11% | |
97. | Haldimand—Norfolk | IND probable | 9% | |
98. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | PLO probable | 7% | |
99. | Humber River—Black Creek | PLO enclin | 5% | |
100. | Don Valley West | PLO probable | 5% | |
101. | London—Fanshawe | NPD probable | 4% | |
102. | Kiiwetinoong | NPD probable | 3% | |
103. | Hamilton Mountain | NPD probable | 3% | |
104. | Scarborough—Guildwood | PLO probable | 2% | |
105. | Nickel Belt | NPD probable | 2% | |
106. | Waterloo | NPD probable | 1% |