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Ontario

Thunder Bay—Superior North


Député(e) : Vaugeois, Lise (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 29 juillet 2024
PLO enclin
Thunder Bay—Superior North 36% ± 10% PLO 32% ± 9%▲ PPCO 25% ± 8%▼ NPD 4% ± 3% PVO NPD 2022 34,1% Projection du vote | 29 juillet 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Superior North 74%▼ PLO 26%▲ PPCO 1%▼ NPD Probabilités de victoire | 29 juillet 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Thunder Bay—Superior North

PLO 36% ± 10% PPCO 32% ± 9% NPD 25% ± 8% PVO 4% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Thunder Bay—Superior North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 58% NPD 19% PPCO 16% PVO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 55% NPD 24% PPCO 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 54% NPD 25% PPCO 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 54% NPD 25% PPCO 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 54% NPD 25% PPCO 14% PVO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 54% NPD 25% PPCO 14% PVO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 54% NPD 25% PPCO 14% PVO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 55% NPD 25% PPCO 14% PVO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 51% NPD 27% PPCO 16% PVO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 50% NPD 27% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 50% NPD 27% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 50% NPD 27% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 49% NPD 27% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 49% NPD 27% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 49% NPD 27% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 49% NPD 27% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 45% NPD 29% PPCO 17% PVO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 45% NPD 29% PPCO 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 44% NPD 30% PPCO 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 43% NPD 30% PPCO 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 43% NPD 30% PPCO 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 43% NPD 30% PPCO 18% PVO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 44% NPD 30% PPCO 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 43% NPD 29% PPCO 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 43% NPD 29% PPCO 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 39% NPD 33% PPCO 18% PVO 3% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 39% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 3% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 39% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 3% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 39% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 3% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 39% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 3% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 38% NPD 33% PPCO 20% PVO 3% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 34% PPCO 31% PLO 28% PVO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 28% PVO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 29% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 30% PVO 3% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 30% PVO 3% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 33% PPCO 31% PLO 29% PVO 3% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 35% PLO 29% PPCO 27% PVO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 35% PLO 29% PPCO 28% PVO 4% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 34% PLO 29% PPCO 28% PVO 4% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 34% PLO 29% PPCO 29% PVO 4% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 35% PLO 30% PPCO 27% PVO 4% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 35% PLO 29% PPCO 28% PVO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 34% PPCO 30% PLO 28% PVO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 34% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 33% PLO 31% PPCO 29% PVO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 41% NPD 26% PPCO 26% PVO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 39% PPCO 29% NPD 25% PVO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 38% PPCO 29% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 37% PPCO 30% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 36% PPCO 31% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 36% PPCO 32% NPD 25% PVO 4% 2024-07-29

Probabilités de victoire | Thunder Bay—Superior North

PLO 74% PPCO 26% NPD 1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 82% NPD 18% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 86% NPD 14% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 86% NPD 14% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 86% NPD 14% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 86% NPD 14% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 80% NPD 20% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 73% PPCO 22% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 68% PPCO 22% PLO 10% PVO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 47% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 44% PPCO 30% PLO 25% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 45% PPCO 30% PLO 25% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 55% PPCO 28% PLO 17% PVO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 80% PLO 14% PPCO 7% PVO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 78% PLO 15% PPCO 7% PVO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 74% PLO 15% PPCO 11% PVO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 71% PLO 16% PPCO 13% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 76% PLO 20% PPCO 4% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 77% PLO 13% PPCO 10% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 68% PPCO 22% PLO 9% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 62% PLO 22% PPCO 17% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 55% PLO 29% PPCO 16% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 99% NPD <1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 96% PPCO 3% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 92% PPCO 7% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 89% PPCO 9% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 80% PPCO 18% NPD 2% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 74% PPCO 26% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29

Historique récent | Thunder Bay—Superior North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 29,5% 37,1% 34,1% 25% ± 8% PPCO 7,2% 18,0% 30,9% 32% ± 9% PLO 56,0% 39,9% 28,3% 36% ± 10% PVO 3,6% 2,8% 3,0% 4% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,4% 1% ± 2% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,3% 1% ± 2%