Ontario

Historique récent | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 59% ± 10% 56,0% 53,3% 57,2% PLO 33% ± 9% 21,6% 30,7% 33,9% NPD 5% ± 3% 18,0% 7,7% 5,6% PVO 2% ± 2% 2,7% 3,9% 1,7% PNBO 2% ± 2% 0,0% 2,0% 1,6%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 49% 69% 59% ± 10% PC 23% 42% 33% ± 9% PLO 2% 9% 5% ± 3% NPD PC 2025 57,21% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill >99% PC <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

PLO 33% ± 9% PC 59% ± 10% NPD 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 52% PLO 33% NPD 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 53% PLO 33% NPD 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 55% PLO 32% NPD 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 55% PLO 31% NPD 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 55% PLO 32% NPD 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 55% PLO 33% NPD 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 55% PLO 33% NPD 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 56% PLO 32% NPD 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 55% PLO 32% NPD 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 53% PLO 34% NPD 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 53% PLO 33% NPD 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 53% PLO 34% NPD 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 53% PLO 34% NPD 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 53% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 53% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 53% PLO 36% NPD 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 53% PLO 36% NPD 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 54% PLO 35% NPD 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 57% PLO 34% NPD 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 57% PLO 34% NPD 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 57% PLO 34% NPD 5% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 58% PLO 33% NPD 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 61% PLO 31% NPD 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 61% PLO 32% NPD 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 61% PLO 31% NPD 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 59% PLO 32% NPD 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 59% PLO 32% NPD 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 59% PLO 33% NPD 5% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

PLO <1% PC >99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2026-02-18