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Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


Député(e) : Parsa, Michael (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 52% ± 9%▼ PPCO 31% ± 8% PLO 8% ± 4%▲ NPD 5% ± 3% PVO PPCO 2022 53,3% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

PLO 31% ± 8% PPCO 52% ± 9% NPD 8% ± 4% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 51% PLO 34% NPD 8% PVO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 49% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 49% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 48% PLO 34% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 48% PLO 35% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 49% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 49% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 49% PLO 33% NPD 11% PVO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 49% PLO 33% NPD 11% PVO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 49% PLO 32% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 48% PLO 34% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 48% PLO 31% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 49% PLO 31% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 49% PLO 31% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 49% PLO 31% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 50% PLO 30% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 54% PLO 28% NPD 11% PVO 2% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 53% PLO 31% NPD 8% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 53% PLO 31% NPD 8% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 52% PLO 31% NPD 7% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 52% PLO 32% NPD 7% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 52% PLO 32% NPD 7% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 52% PLO 31% NPD 7% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 48% PLO 33% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 49% PLO 33% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 49% PLO 32% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 46% PLO 34% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 49% PLO 32% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 52% PLO 31% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 50% PLO 33% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 50% PLO 34% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 48% PLO 36% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 49% PLO 35% NPD 7% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 50% PLO 33% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 51% PLO 33% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 52% PLO 31% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 54% PLO 31% NPD 7% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 52% PLO 31% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 38,1% 56,0% 53,3% 52% ± 9% PLO 45,7% 21,6% 30,7% 31% ± 8% NPD 10,5% 18,0% 7,7% 8% ± 4% PVO 3,5% 2,7% 3,9% 5% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 2,2% 2% ± 2% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,0% 2% ± 2%