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Ontario

Kitchener South—Hespeler


Député(e) : Dixon, Jess (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Kitchener South—Hespeler 39% ± 9%▼ PPCO 21% ± 7%▲ NPD 19% ± 6%▲ PLO 17% ± 7% PVO 3% ± 3% PNBO PPCO 2022 40,0% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Kitchener South—Hespeler >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Kitchener South—Hespeler

PLO 19% ± 6% PPCO 39% ± 9% NPD 21% ± 7% PVO 17% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Kitchener South—Hespeler 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 38% PLO 25% NPD 22% PVO 9% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 9% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 9% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 9% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 9% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 9% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 38% NPD 24% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 24% PVO 9% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 40% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 39% NPD 26% PLO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 39% PLO 25% NPD 24% PVO 9% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 39% PLO 25% NPD 24% PVO 9% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 38% PLO 24% NPD 24% PVO 11% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 12% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 12% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 36% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 12% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 12% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 37% NPD 24% PLO 23% PVO 12% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 37% NPD 24% PLO 23% PVO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 36% NPD 29% PLO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 37% NPD 28% PLO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 37% NPD 28% PLO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 35% NPD 30% PLO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 35% NPD 29% PLO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 38% NPD 29% PLO 18% PVO 11% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 40% NPD 27% PLO 17% PVO 11% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 40% NPD 27% PLO 17% PVO 11% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 17% PVO 13% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 17% PVO 13% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 17% PVO 12% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 17% PVO 12% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 35% NPD 27% PLO 17% PVO 15% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 36% NPD 27% PLO 17% PVO 14% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 37% NPD 27% PLO 17% PVO 13% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 37% NPD 27% PLO 17% PVO 13% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 35% NPD 28% PLO 18% PVO 14% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 37% NPD 27% PLO 17% PVO 13% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 38% NPD 26% PVO 16% PLO 16% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 17% PVO 16% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 37% NPD 25% PLO 18% PVO 16% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 35% NPD 22% PLO 22% PVO 16% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 37% NPD 21% PLO 21% PVO 17% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 37% NPD 22% PLO 20% PVO 16% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 38% NPD 22% PLO 19% PVO 16% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 39% NPD 22% PLO 18% PVO 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 40% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 17% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 39% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 17% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Kitchener South—Hespeler

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 98% NPD 1% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 93% NPD 7% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 86% NPD 14% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 87% NPD 13% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 95% NPD 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 92% NPD 8% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Kitchener South—Hespeler



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 32,1% 38,9% 40,0% 39% ± 9% NPD 23,3% 37,1% 26,5% 21% ± 7% PLO 36,5% 14,9% 16,5% 19% ± 6% PVO 6,3% 7,5% 11,2% 17% ± 7% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 4,2% 3% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,6% 1% ± 2%