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Ontario

Sudbury


Député(e) : West, Jamie (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
Pivot PLO/PPCO/NPD
Sudbury 30% ± 9% NPD 29% ± 9% PPCO 28% ± 8%▼ PLO 7% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 40,8% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Sudbury 44%▼ NPD 33%▲ PPCO 23%▼ PLO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Sudbury

PLO 28% ± 8% PPCO 29% ± 9% NPD 30% ± 9% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Sudbury 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 35% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 34% NPD 33% PPCO 22% PVO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 33% NPD 33% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 34% NPD 33% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 33% NPD 33% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 33% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 33% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 33% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 33% PLO 32% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 33% NPD 33% PPCO 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 32% PLO 32% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 35% PLO 29% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 35% PLO 28% PPCO 24% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 35% PLO 28% PPCO 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 35% PLO 27% PPCO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 35% PLO 27% PPCO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 35% PLO 27% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 35% PLO 27% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 34% PLO 27% PPCO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 34% PLO 27% PPCO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 34% PLO 27% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 33% PLO 27% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 33% PLO 27% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 33% PLO 27% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 33% PLO 27% PPCO 25% PVO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 37% PLO 27% PPCO 24% PVO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 41% PPCO 29% PLO 19% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 41% PPCO 29% PLO 19% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 39% PPCO 29% PLO 20% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 38% PPCO 29% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 38% PPCO 29% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 39% PPCO 29% PLO 20% PVO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 41% PPCO 25% PLO 20% PVO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 41% PPCO 26% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 41% PPCO 26% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 40% PPCO 27% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 42% PPCO 25% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 41% PPCO 26% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 41% PPCO 28% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 40% PPCO 28% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 40% PPCO 28% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 32% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 31% NPD 30% PPCO 27% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 31% PLO 30% PPCO 27% PVO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 31% PLO 29% PPCO 28% PVO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 31% PPCO 29% PLO 28% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 30% NPD 30% PLO 28% PVO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 30% PPCO 29% PLO 29% PVO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 30% PPCO 29% PLO 28% PVO 7% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Sudbury

PLO 23% PPCO 33% NPD 44% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 82% NPD 17% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 66% NPD 34% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 61% NPD 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 61% NPD 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 61% NPD 38% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 52% NPD 48% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 53% NPD 46% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 61% NPD 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 63% NPD 36% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 54% NPD 45% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 56% NPD 43% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 57% NPD 42% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 57% NPD 42% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 53% PLO 46% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 51% NPD 49% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 51% PLO 48% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 86% PLO 14% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 86% PLO 13% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 90% PLO 10% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 92% PLO 7% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 93% PLO 7% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 91% PLO 8% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 91% PLO 8% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 90% PLO 9% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 91% PLO 8% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 91% PLO 8% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 87% PLO 10% PPCO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 87% PLO 10% PPCO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 87% PLO 10% PPCO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 86% PLO 11% PPCO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 97% PLO 2% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 55% NPD 43% PPCO 2% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 52% NPD 37% PPCO 11% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 54% PLO 33% PPCO 13% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 52% PLO 31% PPCO 17% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 57% PPCO 23% PLO 20% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 42% NPD 37% PLO 21% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 47% PPCO 28% PLO 25% PVO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 44% PPCO 33% PLO 23% PVO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Sudbury



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 42,2% 48,1% 40,8% 30% ± 9% PPCO 13,8% 23,2% 29,0% 29% ± 9% PLO 39,3% 22,4% 19,5% 28% ± 8% PVO 3,6% 4,2% 5,0% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,5% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,2% 1% ± 1%