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Ontario

Parry Sound—Muskoka


Député(e) : Smith, Graydon (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 29 juillet 2024
PPCO enclin
Parry Sound—Muskoka 45% ± 11%▲ PPCO 39% ± 11%▼ PVO 9% ± 4% PLO 5% ± 3%▼ NPD PPCO 2022 45,4% Projection du vote | 29 juillet 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Parry Sound—Muskoka 78%▲ PPCO 22%▼ PVO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 29 juillet 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Parry Sound—Muskoka

PLO 9% ± 4% PPCO 45% ± 11% NPD 5% ± 3% PVO 39% ± 11% Projection du vote % | Parry Sound—Muskoka 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 46% PVO 20% PLO 15% NPD 12% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 45% PVO 20% PLO 15% NPD 15% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 45% PVO 20% NPD 15% PLO 15% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 45% PVO 20% NPD 15% PLO 15% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 45% PVO 20% NPD 15% PLO 15% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 45% PVO 20% NPD 15% PLO 15% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 44% PVO 20% PLO 15% NPD 15% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 44% PVO 20% PLO 15% NPD 15% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 44% PVO 20% PLO 16% NPD 15% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 45% PVO 20% PLO 15% NPD 15% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 45% PVO 20% PLO 15% NPD 15% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 45% PVO 20% PLO 15% NPD 15% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 46% PVO 24% NPD 24% PLO 0% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 47% NPD 24% PVO 23% PLO 0% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 46% NPD 24% PVO 23% PLO 0% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 45% PVO 29% NPD 20% PLO 0% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 44% PVO 29% NPD 20% PLO 0% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 41% PVO 33% NPD 19% PLO 0% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 40% PVO 34% NPD 19% PLO 0% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 38% PVO 37% NPD 18% PLO 0% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 39% PVO 37% NPD 18% PLO 0% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 40% PVO 36% NPD 18% PLO 0% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 40% PVO 36% NPD 18% PLO 0% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PVO 39% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PLO 0% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PVO 39% PPCO 38% NPD 14% PLO 0% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 38% PVO 38% NPD 15% PLO 0% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 39% PVO 38% NPD 14% PLO 0% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 39% PVO 38% NPD 14% PLO 0% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 40% PVO 38% NPD 14% PLO 0% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 40% PVO 38% NPD 14% PLO 0% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 43% PVO 39% NPD 12% PLO 0% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 45% PVO 41% NPD 8% PLO 0% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 45% PVO 41% NPD 8% PLO 0% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PVO 44% PPCO 43% NPD 7% PLO 0% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 43% PVO 40% NPD 7% PLO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 44% PVO 40% NPD 7% PLO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 44% PVO 40% NPD 7% PLO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PVO 43% PPCO 40% NPD 8% PLO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PVO 41% PPCO 41% NPD 8% PLO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 42% PVO 40% NPD 8% PLO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 43% PVO 40% NPD 8% PLO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PVO 41% PPCO 41% NPD 8% PLO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 43% PVO 39% NPD 8% PLO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 45% PVO 42% NPD 6% PLO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 45% PVO 41% PLO 6% NPD 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 45% PVO 40% PLO 6% NPD 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PVO 42% PPCO 40% PLO 12% NPD 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 41% PVO 41% PLO 10% NPD 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 42% PVO 40% PLO 10% NPD 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 43% PVO 40% PLO 9% NPD 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 43% PVO 40% PLO 9% NPD 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 45% PVO 39% PLO 9% NPD 5% 2024-07-29

Probabilités de victoire | Parry Sound—Muskoka

PLO <1% PPCO 78% NPD <1% PVO 22% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 99% PVO 1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 99% PVO 1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 89% PVO 11% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 81% PVO 19% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 53% PVO 47% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 62% PVO 38% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 72% PVO 28% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 72% PVO 28% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PVO 54% PPCO 46% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PVO 59% PPCO 41% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 51% PVO 49% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 58% PVO 42% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 58% PVO 42% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 58% PVO 42% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 60% PVO 40% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 71% PVO 29% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 86% PVO 14% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 69% PVO 31% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PVO 59% PPCO 41% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 65% PVO 35% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 70% PVO 30% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 69% PVO 31% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PVO 67% PPCO 33% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PVO 54% PPCO 46% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 64% PVO 36% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 66% PVO 34% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PVO 52% PPCO 48% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 68% PVO 32% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 65% PVO 35% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 65% PVO 35% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 70% PVO 30% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PVO 61% PPCO 39% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PVO 50% PPCO 50% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 58% PVO 42% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 62% PVO 38% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 62% PVO 38% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 78% PVO 22% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29

Historique récent | Parry Sound—Muskoka



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 40,7% 48,1% 45,4% 45% ± 11% PVO 19,3% 20,0% 40,7% 39% ± 11% NPD 12,9% 22,0% 7,6% 5% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 3,7% 1% ± 1% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,0% 1% ± 1% PLO 26,2% 8,6% 0,0% 9% ± 4%