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Ontario

Scarborough—Guildwood


Député(e) : Andrea Hazell (PLO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PLO enclin
Scarborough—Guildwood 40% ± 9% PLO 33% ± 8%▲ PPCO 22% ± 7% NPD PLO 2022 46,3% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Scarborough—Guildwood 89%▼ PLO 11%▲ PPCO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Scarborough—Guildwood

PLO 40% ± 9% PPCO 33% ± 8% NPD 22% ± 7% Projection du vote % | Scarborough—Guildwood 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 41% PPCO 31% NPD 20% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 20% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 20% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 20% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 20% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 43% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 43% PPCO 30% NPD 19% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 42% PPCO 32% NPD 19% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 41% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 41% PPCO 32% NPD 19% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 43% PPCO 31% NPD 18% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 43% PPCO 31% NPD 18% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 42% PPCO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 41% PPCO 30% NPD 19% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 41% PPCO 30% NPD 19% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 41% PPCO 30% NPD 19% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 41% PPCO 31% NPD 19% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 41% PPCO 30% NPD 19% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 41% PPCO 30% NPD 18% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 41% PPCO 30% NPD 18% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 40% PPCO 30% NPD 19% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 40% PPCO 31% NPD 18% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 40% PPCO 31% NPD 18% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 40% PPCO 31% NPD 18% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 40% PPCO 31% NPD 18% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 40% PPCO 32% NPD 18% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO 46% PPCO 31% NPD 17% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 46% PPCO 31% NPD 17% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 16% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 48% PPCO 31% NPD 15% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 48% PPCO 31% NPD 15% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 16% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 48% PPCO 28% NPD 17% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 42% PPCO 35% NPD 16% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 38% PPCO 30% NPD 25% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 38% PPCO 31% NPD 25% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 39% PPCO 28% NPD 26% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 38% PPCO 30% NPD 26% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 37% PPCO 33% NPD 25% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 39% PPCO 31% NPD 25% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 40% PPCO 31% NPD 24% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 45% PPCO 28% NPD 23% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 43% PPCO 30% NPD 22% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 42% PPCO 30% NPD 23% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 41% PPCO 31% NPD 23% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 40% PPCO 32% NPD 23% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 39% PPCO 33% NPD 22% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 40% PPCO 32% NPD 22% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 40% PPCO 33% NPD 22% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Scarborough—Guildwood

PLO 89% PPCO 11% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 97% PPCO 3% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 92% PPCO 7% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 91% PPCO 8% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 98% PPCO 2% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 91% PPCO 8% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 77% PPCO 22% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 92% PPCO 8% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 94% PPCO 6% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 99% PPCO 1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 98% PPCO 2% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 97% PPCO 3% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 92% PPCO 8% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 85% PPCO 15% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 89% PPCO 11% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Scarborough—Guildwood



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PLO 50,4% 33,4% 46,3% 40% ± 9% PPCO 27,9% 33,1% 31,5% 33% ± 8% NPD 17,0% 27,6% 16,7% 22% ± 7% PVO 2,8% 2,4% 2,8% 1% ± 2% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,3% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,9% 1% ± 1%