Ontario

Historique récent | Newmarket—Aurora


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 49% ± 10% 47,3% 44,9% 47,4% PLO 40% ± 10% 23,0% 31,4% 41,9% NPD 6% ± 3% 23,9% 12,7% 6,3% PVO 2% ± 2% 3,6% 5,6% 2,5% PNBO 1% ± 1% 0,0% 3,7% 1,2%

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…


Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Newmarket—Aurora

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Newmarket—Aurora 40% 59% 49% ± 10% PC 31% 50% 40% ± 10% PLO 3% 9% 6% ± 3% NPD PC 2025 47,43% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Newmarket—Aurora 90%▼ PC 10%▲ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Newmarket—Aurora

PLO 40% ± 10% PC 49% ± 10% NPD 6% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Newmarket—Aurora 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 45% PLO 33% NPD 12% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 45% PLO 33% NPD 12% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 48% PLO 32% NPD 12% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 48% PLO 32% NPD 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 48% PLO 32% NPD 12% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 48% PLO 33% NPD 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 48% PLO 33% NPD 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 49% PLO 32% NPD 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 49% PLO 32% NPD 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 46% PLO 35% NPD 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 46% PLO 34% NPD 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 46% PLO 34% NPD 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 46% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 46% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 47% PLO 36% NPD 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 46% PLO 36% NPD 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 46% PLO 36% NPD 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 47% PLO 36% NPD 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 47% PLO 36% NPD 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 48% PLO 35% NPD 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 48% PLO 35% NPD 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 47% PLO 42% NPD 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 48% PLO 42% NPD 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 48% PLO 42% NPD 6% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 48% PLO 41% NPD 6% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 52% PLO 39% NPD 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 51% PLO 40% NPD 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 51% PLO 39% NPD 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 50% PLO 40% NPD 6% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 50% PLO 40% NPD 6% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 49% PLO 40% NPD 6% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Newmarket—Aurora

PLO 10% PC 90% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 95% PLO 5% NPD <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 95% PLO 5% NPD <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 91% PLO 9% NPD <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 82% PLO 18% NPD <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 81% PLO 19% NPD <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 86% PLO 14% NPD <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 96% PLO 4% NPD <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 96% PLO 4% NPD <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 93% PLO 7% NPD <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 91% PLO 9% NPD <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 90% PLO 10% NPD <1% 2026-02-18