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Ontario

Mushkegowuk—James Bay


Député(e) : Bourgouin, Guy (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
Pivot PPCO/NPD
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 38% ± 13%▲ NPD 38% ± 13%▼ PPCO 18% ± 10% PLO 3% ± 4% PVO 3% ± 4% PNBO NPD 2022 47,2% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Mushkegowuk—James Bay 53%▲ NPD 47%▼ PPCO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

PLO 18% ± 10% PPCO 38% ± 13% NPD 38% ± 13% Projection du vote % | Mushkegowuk—James Bay 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 24% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 24% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 24% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 24% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 24% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 24% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 24% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 24% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 25% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 24% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 24% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 24% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 24% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 35% PPCO 33% PLO 23% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 24% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 35% PPCO 33% PLO 23% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 17% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 17% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 17% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 38% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 38% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 38% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 38% PPCO 33% PLO 16% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 41% PPCO 32% PLO 16% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 41% PPCO 33% PLO 15% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 40% PPCO 33% PLO 15% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 47% PPCO 36% PLO 12% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 48% PPCO 35% PLO 12% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 45% PPCO 36% PLO 12% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 45% PPCO 36% PLO 13% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 45% PPCO 36% PLO 13% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 46% PPCO 36% PLO 12% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 49% PPCO 32% PLO 12% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 49% PPCO 33% PLO 12% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 48% PPCO 33% PLO 12% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 48% PPCO 34% PLO 12% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 49% PPCO 32% PLO 13% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 48% PPCO 33% PLO 12% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 47% PPCO 36% PLO 12% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 47% PPCO 35% PLO 13% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 47% PPCO 35% PLO 13% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 26% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 36% PPCO 34% PLO 25% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 37% PPCO 34% PLO 24% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 39% PPCO 36% PLO 19% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 39% PPCO 37% PLO 18% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 39% NPD 37% PLO 18% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 38% PPCO 38% PLO 18% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

PLO <1% PPCO 47% NPD 53% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 60% PPCO 36% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 66% PPCO 30% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 67% PPCO 30% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 66% PPCO 31% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 67% PPCO 30% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 64% PPCO 34% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 65% PPCO 32% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 62% PPCO 34% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 63% PPCO 32% PLO 5% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 60% PPCO 37% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 58% PPCO 39% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 56% PPCO 41% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 56% PPCO 41% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 61% PPCO 37% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 66% PPCO 32% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 59% PPCO 39% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 75% PPCO 25% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 75% PPCO 25% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 78% PPCO 22% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 78% PPCO 22% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 79% PPCO 21% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 76% PPCO 24% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 75% PPCO 25% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 74% PPCO 26% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 74% PPCO 26% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 80% PPCO 20% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 73% PPCO 27% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 73% PPCO 27% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 84% PPCO 16% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 80% PPCO 20% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 76% PPCO 20% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 61% PPCO 37% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 66% PPCO 33% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 62% PPCO 38% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 59% PPCO 41% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 59% NPD 41% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 53% PPCO 47% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Mushkegowuk—James Bay



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 60,3% 51,8% 47,2% 38% ± 13% PPCO 7,7% 30,2% 35,8% 38% ± 13% PLO 30,3% 14,1% 11,7% 18% ± 10% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 3,1% 3% ± 4% PVO 1,4% 1,8% 1,9% 3% ± 4%