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Ontario

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


Député(e) : Shaw, Sandy (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 29 juillet 2024
Pivot PPCO/NPD
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 34% ± 8%▲ PPCO 33% ± 8%▼ NPD 23% ± 7% PLO 7% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 40,6% Projection du vote | 29 juillet 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 58%▲ PPCO 42%▼ NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 29 juillet 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

PLO 23% ± 7% PPCO 34% ± 8% NPD 33% ± 8% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 33% PPCO 31% NPD 26% PVO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 32% PPCO 29% NPD 28% PVO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 30% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 30% NPD 30% PPCO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 30% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 31% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 31% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 30% NPD 30% PPCO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 31% NPD 30% PPCO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 29% PVO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 30% PVO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 30% NPD 30% PLO 30% PVO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 31% NPD 31% PLO 30% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 31% NPD 31% PLO 30% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 31% PLO 31% PPCO 30% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 31% PPCO 31% NPD 30% PVO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 31% PLO 31% NPD 30% PVO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 30% PLO 30% NPD 29% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 30% NPD 30% PLO 30% PVO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 30% PVO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 30% PPCO 30% PLO 30% PVO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 30% NPD 30% PLO 29% PVO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 30% NPD 30% PLO 29% PVO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 33% PPCO 30% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 33% PPCO 30% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 32% PPCO 30% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 32% NPD 31% PLO 25% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 41% PPCO 33% PLO 18% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 41% PPCO 32% PLO 18% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 38% PPCO 33% PLO 19% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 38% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 38% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 19% PVO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 41% PPCO 29% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 41% PPCO 29% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 41% PPCO 30% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 40% PPCO 30% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 42% PPCO 28% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 41% PPCO 30% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 40% PPCO 31% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 39% PPCO 31% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 35% PPCO 29% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 34% PPCO 31% PLO 26% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 35% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 24% PVO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 35% PPCO 32% PLO 23% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 34% NPD 33% PLO 23% PVO 7% 2024-07-29

Probabilités de victoire | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

PLO <1% PPCO 58% NPD 42% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 63% PPCO 34% NPD 3% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 58% PPCO 24% NPD 18% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 38% NPD 37% PPCO 25% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 39% NPD 35% PPCO 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 42% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 43% PLO 30% PPCO 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 44% PLO 32% PPCO 24% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 39% NPD 37% PPCO 24% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 43% NPD 36% PPCO 21% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 39% PPCO 32% PLO 29% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 36% PPCO 33% PLO 31% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 36% NPD 34% PLO 30% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 36% NPD 34% PLO 30% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 41% NPD 34% PLO 25% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 37% PLO 32% PPCO 31% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 39% PPCO 36% NPD 25% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 37% PLO 37% NPD 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 38% PLO 34% NPD 27% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 34% PPCO 34% PLO 31% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 35% NPD 35% PLO 31% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 37% PPCO 32% PLO 31% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 39% NPD 36% PLO 25% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 38% NPD 36% PLO 26% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 68% PPCO 28% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 69% PPCO 27% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 64% PPCO 33% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 51% PPCO 46% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 51% PPCO 46% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 51% PPCO 46% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 49% PPCO 48% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 57% NPD 42% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 82% PPCO 18% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 84% PPCO 13% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 70% PPCO 28% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 77% PPCO 23% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 71% PPCO 29% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 67% PPCO 33% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 58% NPD 42% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29

Historique récent | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 24,9% 43,2% 40,6% 33% ± 8% PPCO 25,8% 31,0% 32,7% 34% ± 8% PLO 43,2% 19,8% 18,3% 23% ± 7% PVO 4,9% 4,2% 5,3% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,0% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,0% 1% ± 1%