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Ontario

Hamilton Mountain


Député(e) : Taylor, Monique (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
NPD probable
Hamilton Mountain 38% ± 9% NPD 31% ± 8%▲ PPCO 21% ± 7% PLO 8% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 45,0% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Hamilton Mountain 90%▼ NPD 10%▲ PPCO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Hamilton Mountain

PLO 21% ± 7% PPCO 31% ± 8% NPD 38% ± 9% PVO 8% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Hamilton Mountain 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 39% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 38% PPCO 32% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 39% PPCO 32% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 37% PPCO 32% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 37% PPCO 32% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 36% PPCO 31% PLO 19% PVO 11% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 18% PVO 11% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 18% PVO 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 18% PVO 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 12% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 11% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 11% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 36% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 11% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 36% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 11% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 41% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 41% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 45% PPCO 30% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 45% PPCO 30% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 43% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 43% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 43% PPCO 30% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 44% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 45% PPCO 26% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 45% PPCO 26% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 45% PPCO 27% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 45% PPCO 28% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 46% PPCO 26% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 45% PPCO 27% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 45% PPCO 29% PLO 15% PVO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 44% PPCO 29% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 44% PPCO 29% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 39% PPCO 27% PLO 23% PVO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 38% PPCO 28% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 39% PPCO 29% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 39% PPCO 29% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 39% PPCO 30% PLO 20% PVO 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Hamilton Mountain

PLO <1% PPCO 10% NPD 90% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 89% PPCO 11% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 85% PPCO 15% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 89% PPCO 11% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 84% PPCO 16% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 84% PPCO 16% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 89% PPCO 11% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 80% PPCO 20% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 80% PPCO 20% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 85% PPCO 15% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Hamilton Mountain



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 48,6% 54,6% 45,0% 38% ± 9% PPCO 17,6% 28,8% 29,9% 31% ± 8% PLO 28,1% 9,2% 15,5% 21% ± 7% PVO 4,3% 5,1% 5,6% 8% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,3% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,7% 1% ± 2%