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Ontario

Chatham-Kent—Leamington


Député(e) : Jones, Trevor (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 51% ± 9%▼ PPCO 28% ± 8%▲ NPD 11% ± 6% PON 5% ± 3% PVO 4% ± 3% PNBO PPCO 2022 47,6% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Chatham-Kent—Leamington >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PON Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

PPCO 51% ± 9% NPD 28% ± 8% PVO 5% ± 3% PON 11% ± 6% Projection du vote % | Chatham-Kent—Leamington 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PPCO NPD PVO PON 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 50% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 47% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 47% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 49% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 50% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 51% NPD 25% PVO 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 50% NPD 25% PVO 4% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 49% NPD 23% PVO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 49% NPD 23% PVO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 48% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 47% NPD 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 47% NPD 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 47% NPD 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 48% NPD 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 47% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 47% NPD 23% PVO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 47% NPD 23% PVO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 48% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 48% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 48% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 48% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 50% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 48% NPD 30% PVO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 48% NPD 32% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 49% NPD 29% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 49% NPD 29% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 49% NPD 29% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 49% NPD 30% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 44% NPD 33% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 44% NPD 33% PVO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 45% NPD 32% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 46% NPD 32% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 43% NPD 34% PVO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 45% NPD 32% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 49% NPD 33% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 49% NPD 33% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 49% NPD 33% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 49% NPD 30% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 50% NPD 29% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 50% NPD 29% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 50% NPD 29% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 51% NPD 29% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 53% NPD 27% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 51% NPD 28% PVO 5% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 95% NPD 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Chatham-Kent—Leamington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 37,0% 51,9% 47,6% 51% ± 9% NPD 32,7% 35,7% 30,2% 28% ± 8% PON 0,0% 0,0% 14,8% 11% ± 6% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 4,0% 4% ± 3% PVO 5,2% 3,5% 3,4% 5% ± 3% PLO 23,8% 8,1% 0,0% 1% ± 1%