Ontario

Historique récent | Scarborough Southwest


2018 2022 2025 Projection NPD 45% ± 10% 45,5% 47,1% 42,9% PC 30% ± 9% 31,3% 27,9% 30,6% PLO 21% ± 8% 18,9% 18,8% 22,9% PVO 3% ± 3% 2,6% 3,6% 3,5%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Scarborough Southwest

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Scarborough Southwest 35% 55% 45% ± 10% NPD 22% 39% 30% ± 9% PC 14% 29% 21% ± 8% PLO NPD 2025 42,89% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Scarborough Southwest 99% NPD 1% PC <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Scarborough Southwest

PLO 21% ± 8% PC 30% ± 9% NPD 45% ± 10% PVO 3% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Scarborough Southwest 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 NPD 42% PC 31% PLO 21% PVO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NPD 41% PC 31% PLO 21% PVO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NPD 41% PC 33% PLO 20% PVO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NPD 41% PC 33% PLO 20% PVO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NPD 41% PC 33% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NPD 40% PC 33% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NPD 40% PC 33% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NPD 39% PC 34% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NPD 40% PC 34% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NPD 40% PC 34% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NPD 40% PC 34% PLO 20% PVO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NPD 40% PC 34% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NPD 39% PC 34% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NPD 38% PC 34% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NPD 38% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NPD 38% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NPD 39% PC 34% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NPD 39% PC 34% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NPD 39% PC 34% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NPD 38% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NPD 38% PC 35% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NPD 43% PC 31% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NPD 42% PC 31% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NPD 42% PC 31% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NPD 42% PC 32% PLO 23% PVO 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NPD 38% PC 36% PLO 23% PVO 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NPD 39% PC 35% PLO 23% PVO 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NPD 42% PC 33% PLO 22% PVO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NPD 45% PC 31% PLO 21% PVO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NPD 45% PC 31% PLO 21% PVO 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NPD 45% PC 30% PLO 21% PVO 3% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Scarborough Southwest

PLO <1% PC 1% NPD 99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 NPD 97% PC 3% PLO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NPD 96% PC 4% PLO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NPD 91% PC 9% PLO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NPD 90% PC 10% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NPD 93% PC 7% PLO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NPD 87% PC 13% PLO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NPD 86% PC 14% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NPD 82% PC 18% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NPD 83% PC 17% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NPD 86% PC 14% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NPD 88% PC 12% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NPD 85% PC 15% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NPD 81% PC 19% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NPD 75% PC 25% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NPD 75% PC 25% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NPD 74% PC 26% PLO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NPD 73% PC 27% PLO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NPD 73% PC 27% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NPD 82% PC 18% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NPD 81% PC 19% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NPD 75% PC 25% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NPD 75% PC 25% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NPD 76% PC 24% PLO <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NPD 78% PC 22% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NPD 78% PC 22% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NPD 78% PC 22% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NPD 79% PC 21% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NPD 70% PC 30% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NPD 69% PC 31% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NPD >99% PC <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NPD 97% PC 3% PLO <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NPD 97% PC 3% PLO <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NPD 95% PC 5% PLO <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NPD 63% PC 37% PLO <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NPD 78% PC 22% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NPD 93% PC 7% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NPD 99% PC 1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NPD 99% PC 1% PLO <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NPD 99% PC 1% PLO <1% 2026-02-18