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Ontario

Carleton


Député(e) : Ghamari, Goldie (IND)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Carleton 47% ± 9%▼ PPCO 28% ± 8%▲ PLO 14% ± 6% NPD 7% ± 4% PVO PPCO 2022 48,1% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Carleton >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Carleton

PLO 28% ± 8% PPCO 47% ± 9% NPD 14% ± 6% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Carleton 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 48% PLO 32% NPD 12% PVO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 44% PLO 32% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 44% PLO 32% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 46% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 45% PLO 30% NPD 15% PVO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 44% PLO 30% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 43% PLO 30% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 43% PLO 30% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 43% PLO 30% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 44% PLO 30% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 44% PLO 30% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 43% PLO 30% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 43% PLO 30% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 44% PLO 29% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 45% PLO 29% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 45% PLO 29% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 45% PLO 29% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 46% PLO 28% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 50% PLO 26% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 48% PLO 27% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 48% PLO 27% NPD 16% PVO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 47% PLO 28% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 47% PLO 28% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 47% PLO 28% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 47% PLO 28% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 43% PLO 28% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 44% PLO 28% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 45% PLO 28% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 45% PLO 28% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 42% PLO 29% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 45% PLO 28% NPD 16% PVO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 47% PLO 27% NPD 16% PVO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 46% PLO 28% NPD 16% PVO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 46% PLO 29% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 43% PLO 32% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 14% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 45% PLO 30% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 46% PLO 29% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 47% PLO 28% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 49% PLO 27% NPD 14% PVO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 47% PLO 28% NPD 14% PVO 7% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Carleton

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Carleton



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 53,1% 51,3% 48,1% 47% ± 9% PLO 28,0% 19,4% 26,9% 28% ± 8% NPD 12,3% 22,5% 15,7% 14% ± 6% PVO 5,9% 4,0% 5,5% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,2% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,1% 1% ± 1%