Ontario

Historique récent | Carleton


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 51% ± 9% 51,3% 48,1% 49,7% PLO 37% ± 9% 19,4% 26,9% 38,6% NPD 7% ± 3% 22,5% 15,7% 7,0% PVO 2% ± 2% 4,0% 5,5% 1,8% PNBO 1% ± 1% 0,0% 2,2% 1,3% PON 1% ± 1% 0,0% 1,1% 0,7% IND 0% ± 1% 0,0% 0,0% 0,4%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Carleton

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Carleton 42% 61% 51% ± 9% PC 28% 46% 37% ± 9% PLO 3% 10% 7% ± 3% NPD PC 2025 49,66% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Carleton 99% PC 1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Carleton

PLO 37% ± 9% PC 51% ± 9% NPD 7% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Carleton 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 49% PLO 28% NPD 14% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 50% PLO 28% NPD 14% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 52% PLO 27% NPD 13% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 52% PLO 26% NPD 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 52% PLO 27% NPD 13% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 52% PLO 28% NPD 12% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 52% PLO 28% NPD 12% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 53% PLO 27% NPD 12% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 53% PLO 27% NPD 12% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 52% PLO 27% NPD 12% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 53% PLO 27% NPD 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 53% PLO 27% NPD 12% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 12% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 52% PLO 29% NPD 11% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 52% PLO 29% NPD 11% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 54% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 54% PLO 28% NPD 11% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 50% PLO 39% NPD 7% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 50% PLO 38% NPD 7% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 50% PLO 39% NPD 7% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 51% PLO 38% NPD 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 54% PLO 36% NPD 6% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 54% PLO 37% NPD 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 53% PLO 36% NPD 6% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 52% PLO 37% NPD 7% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 52% PLO 37% NPD 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 51% PLO 37% NPD 7% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Carleton

PLO 1% PC 99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 96% PLO 4% NPD <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 98% PLO 2% NPD <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% 2026-02-18