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Ontario

London North Centre


Député(e) : Kernaghan, Terence (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
Pivot PPCO/NPD
London North Centre 33% ± 8%▲ NPD 31% ± 8%▼ PPCO 24% ± 7% PLO 7% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 39,1% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% London North Centre 70%▲ NPD 29%▼ PPCO 1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | London North Centre

PLO 24% ± 7% PPCO 31% ± 8% NPD 33% ± 8% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | London North Centre 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 32% NPD 30% PLO 26% PVO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 26% PVO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 32% PPCO 30% PLO 26% PVO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 32% NPD 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 31% NPD 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 32% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 31% PPCO 31% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 32% PPCO 30% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 32% PPCO 30% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 32% PPCO 30% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 32% PPCO 30% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 32% PPCO 30% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 31% PPCO 31% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 31% PPCO 31% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 31% PPCO 31% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 31% PPCO 31% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 31% PPCO 31% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 39% PPCO 30% PLO 21% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 40% PPCO 30% PLO 21% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 22% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 22% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 22% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 38% PPCO 30% PLO 21% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 40% PPCO 26% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 40% PPCO 27% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 39% PPCO 27% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 39% PPCO 28% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 40% PPCO 26% PLO 22% PVO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 40% PPCO 27% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 39% PPCO 29% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 39% PPCO 29% PLO 22% PVO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 38% PPCO 29% PLO 23% PVO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 34% PLO 28% PPCO 27% PVO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 33% PPCO 29% PLO 27% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 34% PPCO 29% PLO 26% PVO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 34% PPCO 29% PLO 25% PVO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 34% PPCO 30% PLO 24% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 32% PPCO 32% PLO 24% PVO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 33% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 7% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | London North Centre

PLO 1% PPCO 29% NPD 70% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 57% NPD 35% PLO 8% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 55% PPCO 43% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 57% PPCO 42% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 55% PPCO 44% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 57% PPCO 41% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 60% PPCO 38% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 62% PPCO 36% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 57% PPCO 40% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 58% PPCO 37% PLO 5% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 53% PPCO 45% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 50% PPCO 47% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 51% NPD 47% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 51% NPD 46% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 56% PPCO 43% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 63% PPCO 35% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 53% PPCO 46% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 53% PPCO 46% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 53% PPCO 46% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 66% PPCO 34% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 66% PPCO 34% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 68% PPCO 31% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 61% PPCO 39% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 61% PPCO 39% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 58% PPCO 41% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 58% PPCO 41% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 58% PPCO 42% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 58% PPCO 42% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 57% PPCO 42% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 58% PPCO 42% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 55% PPCO 45% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 52% PPCO 47% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 89% PPCO 11% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 89% PPCO 10% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 100% PPCO 0% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 86% PLO 7% PPCO 6% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 77% PPCO 16% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 85% PPCO 13% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 80% PPCO 18% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 78% PPCO 21% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 55% PPCO 44% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 70% PPCO 29% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | London North Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 30,0% 47,6% 39,1% 33% ± 8% PPCO 26,6% 30,9% 30,0% 31% ± 8% PLO 36,4% 15,7% 20,6% 24% ± 7% PVO 5,3% 4,6% 4,8% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,8% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,6% 1% ± 1%