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Ontario

Burlington


Député(e) : Pierre, Natalie (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 29 juillet 2024
PPCO probable
Burlington 44% ± 9%▲ PPCO 29% ± 8% PLO 16% ± 6%▼ NPD 9% ± 4% PVO PPCO 2022 42,5% Projection du vote | 29 juillet 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Burlington >99%▲ PPCO <1%▼ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 29 juillet 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Burlington

PLO 29% ± 8% PPCO 44% ± 9% NPD 16% ± 6% PVO 9% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Burlington 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 38% PPCO 38% NPD 14% PVO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 36% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 36% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 37% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 37% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 36% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 36% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 36% PPCO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 37% PPCO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 37% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 37% PLO 35% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 37% PLO 35% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 38% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 38% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 37% PLO 36% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 38% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 38% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 37% PLO 35% NPD 18% PVO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 37% PLO 34% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 37% PLO 34% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 36% PLO 34% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 37% PLO 34% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 37% PLO 34% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 37% PLO 34% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 37% PLO 34% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 39% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 43% PLO 29% NPD 18% PVO 7% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 42% PLO 29% NPD 18% PVO 7% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 42% PLO 30% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 42% PLO 31% NPD 16% PVO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 42% PLO 30% NPD 17% PVO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 38% PLO 30% NPD 18% PVO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 38% PLO 30% NPD 18% PVO 10% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 39% PLO 30% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 39% PLO 30% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 37% PLO 32% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 39% PLO 30% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 42% PLO 29% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 17% PVO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 40% PLO 32% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 38% PLO 34% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 40% PLO 33% NPD 16% PVO 9% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 42% PLO 29% NPD 17% PVO 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 44% PLO 29% NPD 16% PVO 9% 2024-07-29

Probabilités de victoire | Burlington

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 50% PPCO 50% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 54% PLO 46% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 59% PLO 41% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 64% PLO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 60% PLO 40% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 54% PLO 46% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 50% PPCO 50% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 55% PPCO 45% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 63% PLO 37% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 63% PLO 37% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 64% PLO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 72% PLO 28% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 60% PLO 40% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 61% PLO 39% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 66% PLO 34% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 67% PLO 33% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 67% PLO 33% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 69% PLO 31% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 68% PLO 32% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 69% PLO 31% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 88% PLO 12% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 91% PLO 9% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 92% PLO 8% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 85% PLO 15% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 81% PLO 19% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29

Historique récent | Burlington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 36,9% 40,4% 42,5% 44% ± 9% PLO 43,4% 24,6% 29,4% 29% ± 8% NPD 14,4% 28,6% 17,6% 16% ± 6% PVO 4,1% 4,5% 6,7% 9% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,5% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,2% 1% ± 1%