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Ontario

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston


Député(e) : Jordan, John (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PPCO solide
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 49% ± 9% PPCO 19% ± 7% NPD 17% ± 6% PLO 9% ± 5% PVO 3% ± 2% PON PPCO 2022 50,2% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

PLO 17% ± 6% PPCO 49% ± 9% NPD 19% ± 7% PVO 9% ± 5% Projection du vote % | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 51% PLO 18% NPD 18% PVO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 47% PLO 22% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 47% PLO 21% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 46% PLO 21% NPD 19% PVO 8% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 44% NPD 21% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 44% NPD 21% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 44% NPD 21% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 20% PVO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 44% NPD 20% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 45% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 46% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 46% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 46% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 47% NPD 19% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 50% NPD 18% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 50% NPD 21% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 50% NPD 21% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 50% NPD 19% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 49% NPD 19% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 50% NPD 19% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 44% NPD 22% PLO 17% PVO 11% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 45% NPD 22% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 44% NPD 22% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 46% NPD 22% PLO 16% PVO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 16% PVO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 45% PLO 20% NPD 20% PVO 9% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 46% PLO 20% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 47% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 48% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 48% NPD 20% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 50% NPD 19% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 49% NPD 19% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 49% NPD 19% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 46,9% 52,0% 50,2% 49% ± 9% NPD 18,2% 30,5% 20,6% 19% ± 7% PLO 28,0% 10,6% 15,9% 17% ± 6% PVO 6,9% 4,8% 6,8% 9% ± 5% PON 0,0% 0,0% 3,6% 3% ± 2% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,7% 1% ± 2%