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Ontario

Flamborough—Glanbrook


Député(e) : Skelly, Donna (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 30 juin 2024
PPCO solide
Flamborough—Glanbrook 45% ± 9%▲ PPCO 24% ± 7%▼ PLO 19% ± 6% NPD 7% ± 4% PVO 3% ± 2% PNBO PPCO 2022 46,2% Projection du vote | 30 juin 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Flamborough—Glanbrook >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 30 juin 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Flamborough—Glanbrook

PLO 24% ± 7% PPCO 45% ± 9% NPD 19% ± 6% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Flamborough—Glanbrook 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 30 juin 2024 2022-04-23 PPCO 42% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 6% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PPCO 43% PLO 26% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PPCO 43% PLO 26% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 40% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 40% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 40% PLO 26% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 40% PLO 26% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 41% PLO 25% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 41% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 40% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 40% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 40% PLO 25% NPD 23% PVO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 40% PLO 24% NPD 22% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 39% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 39% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 39% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 39% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 39% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 39% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 39% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 40% PLO 23% NPD 22% PVO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 41% PLO 23% NPD 22% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 41% PLO 23% NPD 22% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 41% PLO 23% NPD 22% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 42% PLO 23% NPD 21% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 43% PLO 22% NPD 21% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 46% NPD 23% PLO 20% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 46% NPD 23% PLO 20% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 46% NPD 22% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 42% NPD 24% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 42% NPD 24% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 43% NPD 23% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 43% NPD 23% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 41% NPD 24% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 43% NPD 23% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 46% NPD 23% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 45% NPD 23% PLO 22% PVO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 44% PLO 22% NPD 22% PVO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 42% PLO 27% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 43% PLO 26% NPD 19% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 19% PVO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 45% PLO 24% NPD 19% PVO 7% 2024-06-30

Probabilités de victoire | Flamborough—Glanbrook

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 30 juin 2024 2022-04-23 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 99% PLO 1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30

Historique récent | Flamborough—Glanbrook



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 35,5% 43,5% 46,2% 45% ± 9% NPD 22,7% 34,2% 22,7% 19% ± 6% PLO 35,6% 15,4% 20,4% 24% ± 7% PVO 4,5% 4,5% 5,4% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 3,4% 3% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,6% 1% ± 2%