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Ontario

Perth—Wellington


Député(e) : Rae, Matthew (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Perth—Wellington 47% ± 9%▼ PPCO 19% ± 6% PLO 18% ± 6% NPD 9% ± 5% PVO 5% ± 3% PNBO PPCO 2022 46,8% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Perth—Wellington >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Perth—Wellington

PLO 19% ± 6% PPCO 47% ± 9% NPD 18% ± 6% PVO 9% ± 5% PNBO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Perth—Wellington 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO PNBO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 50% PLO 19% NPD 18% PVO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 47% PLO 20% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 47% PLO 20% NPD 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 46% PLO 19% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 45% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 45% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 44% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 45% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 45% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 10% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 47% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 47% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 47% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 48% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 50% NPD 18% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 47% NPD 22% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 46% NPD 22% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 42% NPD 23% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 42% NPD 23% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 43% NPD 22% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 44% NPD 22% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 41% NPD 23% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 43% NPD 23% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 46% NPD 22% PLO 16% PVO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 46% NPD 22% PLO 17% PVO 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 45% NPD 22% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 43% PLO 22% NPD 20% PVO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 44% PLO 21% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 45% PLO 20% NPD 19% PVO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 45% PLO 20% NPD 19% PVO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 46% NPD 19% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 48% PLO 19% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 47% PLO 19% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Perth—Wellington

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Perth—Wellington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 39,0% 50,7% 46,8% 47% ± 9% NPD 18,9% 30,7% 22,1% 18% ± 6% PLO 33,1% 10,8% 16,1% 19% ± 6% PVO 4,9% 5,9% 6,3% 9% ± 5% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 5,9% 5% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 2,4% 2% ± 2%