Ontario

Historique récent | Perth—Wellington


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 49% ± 9% 50,7% 46,8% 47,0% PLO 27% ± 8% 10,8% 16,1% 28,4% NPD 12% ± 5% 30,7% 22,1% 12,6% PVO 7% ± 4% 5,9% 6,3% 7,5% PNBO 3% ± 2% 0,0% 5,9% 2,9% PON 1% ± 1% 0,0% 2,4% 1,0%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Perth—Wellington

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Perth—Wellington 40% 58% 49% ± 9% PC 19% 35% 27% ± 8% PLO 7% 17% 12% ± 5% NPD 3% 11% 7% ± 4% PVO PC 2025 47,0% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Perth—Wellington >99% PC <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Perth—Wellington

PLO 27% ± 8% PC 49% ± 9% NPD 12% ± 5% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Perth—Wellington 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 48% PLO 19% NPD 19% PVO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 48% PLO 19% NPD 19% PVO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 52% PLO 19% NPD 18% PVO 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 52% PLO 19% NPD 18% PVO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 51% PLO 19% NPD 18% PVO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 52% PLO 20% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 52% PLO 20% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 53% PLO 19% NPD 17% PVO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 53% PLO 19% NPD 17% PVO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 52% PLO 20% NPD 17% PVO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 52% PLO 19% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 52% PLO 19% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 53% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 53% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 53% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 53% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 53% PLO 21% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 53% PLO 21% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 53% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 53% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 54% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 47% PLO 28% NPD 13% PVO 7% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 47% PLO 28% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 47% PLO 28% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 48% PLO 28% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 52% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 52% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 51% PLO 27% NPD 11% PVO 7% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 49% PLO 27% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 49% PLO 27% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 49% PLO 27% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Perth—Wellington

PLO <1% PC >99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2026-02-18