Ontario

Historique récent | Oxford


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 57% ± 9% 55,7% 50,0% 55,3% PLO 22% ± 7% 6,9% 12,3% 23,2% NPD 11% ± 5% 30,4% 21,4% 11,0% PVO 4% ± 3% 4,3% 4,7% 4,5% PON 3% ± 2% 0,0% 8,1% 2,9% PNBO 3% ± 2% 0,0% 3,4% 2,7%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Oxford

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Oxford 48% 66% 57% ± 9% PC 15% 29% 22% ± 7% PLO 6% 15% 11% ± 5% NPD 2% 7% 4% ± 3% PVO PC 2025 55,26% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Oxford >99% PC <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Oxford

PLO 22% ± 7% PC 57% ± 9% NPD 11% ± 5% PVO 4% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Oxford 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 52% NPD 19% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 53% NPD 19% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 56% NPD 18% PLO 14% PVO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 56% NPD 18% PLO 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 56% NPD 18% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 57% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 57% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 57% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 57% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 57% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 57% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 57% NPD 17% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 57% NPD 16% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 58% NPD 16% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 58% NPD 16% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 57% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 57% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 58% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 59% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 59% PLO 16% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 55% PLO 23% NPD 11% PVO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 56% PLO 23% NPD 11% PVO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 55% PLO 23% NPD 11% PVO 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 56% PLO 23% NPD 11% PVO 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 60% PLO 22% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 60% PLO 22% NPD 8% PVO 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 59% PLO 22% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 58% PLO 22% NPD 10% PVO 4% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 57% PLO 22% NPD 10% PVO 4% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 57% PLO 22% NPD 11% PVO 4% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Oxford

PLO <1% PC >99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-02-18