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Ontario

Wellington—Halton Hills


Député(e) : Arnott, Ted (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Wellington—Halton Hills 49% ± 9%▼ PPCO 17% ± 7%▲ PVO 17% ± 6%▲ PLO 13% ± 5% NPD 4% ± 3% PNBO PPCO 2022 50,6% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Wellington—Halton Hills >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Wellington—Halton Hills

PLO 17% ± 6% PPCO 49% ± 9% NPD 13% ± 5% PVO 17% ± 7% PNBO 4% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Wellington—Halton Hills 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO PNBO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 52% PLO 21% NPD 13% PVO 9% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 51% PLO 19% NPD 16% PVO 9% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 51% PLO 19% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 51% PLO 19% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 50% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 50% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 50% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 50% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 49% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 50% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 51% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 51% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 51% PLO 20% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 51% PLO 19% NPD 16% PVO 8% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 50% PLO 20% NPD 17% PVO 8% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 48% PLO 23% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 48% PLO 23% NPD 15% PVO 8% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 47% PLO 22% NPD 15% PVO 11% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 17% PVO 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 46% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 46% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 47% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 49% PLO 19% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 49% PLO 19% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 49% PLO 19% NPD 16% PVO 11% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 50% PLO 19% NPD 15% PVO 10% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 53% PLO 18% NPD 15% PVO 10% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 51% NPD 16% PVO 14% PLO 14% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 50% NPD 16% PVO 14% PLO 14% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 49% PVO 16% NPD 14% PLO 14% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 49% PVO 16% PLO 15% NPD 14% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 49% PVO 16% PLO 15% NPD 14% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 49% PVO 16% NPD 15% PLO 14% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 44% PVO 19% NPD 16% PLO 15% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 45% PVO 18% NPD 16% PLO 15% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 46% PVO 17% NPD 16% PLO 15% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 46% PVO 17% NPD 16% PLO 15% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 44% PVO 17% NPD 17% PLO 16% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 46% PVO 17% NPD 17% PLO 15% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 49% PVO 17% NPD 16% PLO 14% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 48% PVO 16% NPD 16% PLO 15% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 48% PVO 16% NPD 16% PLO 16% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 45% PLO 20% PVO 16% NPD 14% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 47% PLO 19% PVO 17% NPD 13% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 47% PLO 18% PVO 16% NPD 14% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 48% PLO 17% PVO 16% NPD 13% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 49% PVO 17% PLO 17% NPD 13% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 50% PVO 16% PLO 16% NPD 13% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 49% PVO 17% PLO 17% NPD 13% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Wellington—Halton Hills

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Wellington—Halton Hills



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 46,6% 54,0% 50,6% 49% ± 9% NPD 14,1% 24,0% 15,6% 13% ± 5% PVO 7,4% 8,6% 14,1% 17% ± 7% PLO 29,3% 12,8% 14,0% 17% ± 6% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 5,1% 4% ± 3%