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Ontario

Thunder Bay—Atikokan


Député(e) : Holland, Kevin (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PPCO enclin
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 37% ± 9%▲ PPCO 33% ± 9% PLO 24% ± 8% NPD 4% ± 3% PVO PPCO 2022 36,3% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Atikokan 75%▲ PPCO 25%▼ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Thunder Bay—Atikokan

PLO 33% ± 9% PPCO 37% ± 9% NPD 24% ± 8% Projection du vote % | Thunder Bay—Atikokan 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 41% NPD 29% PPCO 22% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 41% NPD 29% PPCO 22% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 42% NPD 29% PPCO 22% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 22% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 22% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 22% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 42% NPD 29% PPCO 22% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 43% NPD 28% PPCO 22% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 43% NPD 28% PPCO 22% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 22% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 23% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 23% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 41% NPD 28% PPCO 23% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 41% NPD 28% PPCO 23% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 22% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 41% NPD 27% PPCO 23% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 37% NPD 30% PPCO 23% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 37% NPD 30% PPCO 23% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 23% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 35% NPD 31% PPCO 23% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 23% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 35% NPD 31% PPCO 23% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 23% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 35% NPD 31% PPCO 23% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 35% NPD 31% PPCO 23% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 34% NPD 33% PPCO 22% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 23% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 23% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 34% PPCO 28% NPD 27% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 34% PPCO 28% NPD 27% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 33% NPD 30% PPCO 26% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 36% NPD 33% PLO 24% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 36% NPD 33% PLO 24% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 36% NPD 31% PLO 25% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 36% NPD 31% PLO 26% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 36% NPD 31% PLO 26% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 36% NPD 32% PLO 25% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 25% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 33% PPCO 33% PLO 26% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 34% NPD 33% PLO 25% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 34% NPD 32% PLO 25% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 34% PPCO 32% PLO 27% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 34% NPD 33% PLO 25% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 36% NPD 32% PLO 24% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 35% NPD 32% PLO 26% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 35% NPD 31% PLO 27% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 37% PPCO 31% NPD 25% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 36% PPCO 34% NPD 24% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 34% PPCO 34% NPD 25% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 35% PLO 34% NPD 25% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 36% PLO 32% NPD 25% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 37% PLO 32% NPD 23% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 36% PLO 33% NPD 24% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 37% PLO 33% NPD 24% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Thunder Bay—Atikokan

PLO 25% PPCO 75% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 98% NPD 2% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 89% NPD 11% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 87% NPD 13% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 83% NPD 17% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 78% NPD 22% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 78% NPD 22% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 80% NPD 20% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 81% NPD 19% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 75% NPD 25% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 75% NPD 25% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 61% NPD 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 66% NPD 34% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 66% NPD 33% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 82% PPCO 11% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 81% PPCO 12% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 67% NPD 28% PPCO 5% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 78% NPD 22% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 65% NPD 34% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 79% NPD 19% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 79% NPD 19% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 80% NPD 19% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 75% NPD 24% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 59% PPCO 39% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 50% PPCO 48% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 57% NPD 41% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 62% NPD 37% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 58% PPCO 38% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 55% NPD 44% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 74% NPD 26% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 71% NPD 27% PLO 2% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 72% NPD 25% PLO 3% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 86% PPCO 13% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 64% PPCO 36% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 50% PPCO 49% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 56% PLO 43% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 71% PLO 28% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 80% PLO 20% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 71% PLO 29% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 75% PLO 25% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Thunder Bay—Atikokan



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 13,2% 23,2% 36,3% 37% ± 9% NPD 28,1% 36,3% 32,9% 24% ± 8% PLO 53,0% 36,0% 24,4% 33% ± 9% PVO 3,4% 2,7% 2,9% 4% ± 3% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,0% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,9% 1% ± 1%