Ontario

Historique récent | Elgin—Middlesex—London


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 58% ± 9% 55,4% 51,1% 55,8% PLO 23% ± 7% 7,3% 17,4% 24,4% NPD 9% ± 4% 32,0% 18,2% 9,2% PVO 5% ± 3% 3,9% 4,7% 5,7% PNBO 3% ± 2% 0,0% 5,1% 2,8% PON 1% ± 1% 0,0% 2,5% 1,2%

Infolettre Qc125

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Projection Qc125 Elgin—Middlesex—London

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Elgin—Middlesex—London 49% 66% 58% ± 9% PC 16% 31% 23% ± 7% PLO 5% 13% 9% ± 4% NPD 2% 9% 5% ± 3% PVO PC 2025 55,8% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Elgin—Middlesex—London >99% PC <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Elgin—Middlesex—London

PLO 23% ± 7% PC 58% ± 9% NPD 9% ± 4% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Elgin—Middlesex—London 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 51% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 52% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 55% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 55% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 54% PLO 21% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 55% PLO 21% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 55% PLO 21% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 56% PLO 21% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 56% PLO 21% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 55% PLO 21% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 56% PLO 20% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 56% PLO 21% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 56% PLO 21% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 56% PLO 21% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 56% PLO 21% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 57% PLO 21% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 57% PLO 21% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 55% PLO 22% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 57% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 56% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 57% PLO 21% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 57% PLO 22% NPD 12% PVO 5% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 56% PLO 24% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 56% PLO 24% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 56% PLO 24% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 57% PLO 24% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 60% PLO 23% NPD 7% PVO 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 60% PLO 23% NPD 7% PVO 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 59% PLO 23% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 58% PLO 23% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 58% PLO 23% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 58% PLO 23% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Elgin—Middlesex—London

PLO <1% PC >99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-02-18