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Ontario

Elgin—Middlesex—London


Député(e) : Flack, Rob (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Elgin—Middlesex—London 50% ± 9%▼ PPCO 21% ± 7%▲ PLO 15% ± 6% NPD 7% ± 4%▲ PVO 4% ± 3% PNBO PPCO 2022 51,1% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Elgin—Middlesex—London >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Elgin—Middlesex—London

PLO 21% ± 7% PPCO 50% ± 9% NPD 15% ± 6% PVO 7% ± 4% PNBO 4% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Elgin—Middlesex—London 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO PNBO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 55% NPD 20% PLO 13% PVO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 55% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 55% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 55% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 13% PVO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 13% PVO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 55% NPD 21% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 55% NPD 21% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 55% NPD 21% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 55% NPD 21% PLO 12% PVO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 12% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 53% NPD 21% PLO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 53% NPD 21% PLO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 52% NPD 20% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 50% NPD 22% PLO 14% PVO 8% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 51% NPD 22% PLO 14% PVO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 50% NPD 22% PLO 14% PVO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 51% NPD 22% PLO 13% PVO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 51% NPD 21% PLO 14% PVO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 51% NPD 21% PLO 13% PVO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 50% NPD 21% PLO 13% PVO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 51% NPD 21% PLO 13% PVO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 52% NPD 20% PLO 13% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 52% NPD 20% PLO 13% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 52% NPD 20% PLO 13% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 53% NPD 20% PLO 13% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 55% NPD 19% PLO 12% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 51% NPD 18% PLO 17% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 51% NPD 19% PLO 17% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 51% PLO 18% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 50% PLO 18% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 50% PLO 18% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 50% PLO 18% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 46% NPD 19% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 47% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 47% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 45% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 47% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 50% NPD 19% PLO 18% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 49% PLO 19% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 49% PLO 20% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 46% PLO 24% NPD 16% PVO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 47% PLO 23% NPD 16% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 48% PLO 22% NPD 16% PVO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 49% PLO 22% NPD 16% PVO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 49% PLO 21% NPD 16% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 51% PLO 20% NPD 15% PVO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 50% PLO 21% NPD 15% PVO 7% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Elgin—Middlesex—London

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Elgin—Middlesex—London



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 47,1% 55,4% 51,1% 50% ± 9% NPD 26,2% 32,0% 18,2% 15% ± 6% PLO 20,0% 7,3% 17,4% 21% ± 7% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 5,1% 4% ± 3% PVO 4,9% 3,9% 4,7% 7% ± 4% PON 0,0% 0,0% 2,5% 2% ± 2%