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Peterborough—Kawartha


Député(e) : Smith, Dave (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PPCO probable
Peterborough—Kawartha 39% ± 9% PPCO 32% ± 8% PLO 19% ± 6%▼ NPD 5% ± 3% PVO 3% ± 2% PON PPCO 2022 38,5% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Peterborough—Kawartha 90%▲ PPCO 10%▼ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Peterborough—Kawartha

PLO 32% ± 8% PPCO 39% ± 9% NPD 19% ± 6% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Peterborough—Kawartha 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 37% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 26% PVO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 34% PLO 33% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 34% PLO 33% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 34% PLO 34% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 35% PLO 33% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 35% PLO 33% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 35% PLO 33% NPD 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 36% PLO 33% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 37% PLO 33% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 36% PLO 33% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 37% PLO 32% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 37% PLO 32% NPD 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 36% PLO 32% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 36% PLO 31% NPD 25% PVO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 36% PLO 31% NPD 25% PVO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 36% PLO 31% NPD 25% PVO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 36% PLO 31% NPD 25% PVO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 36% PLO 31% NPD 25% PVO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 32% PLO 32% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 32% PLO 32% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 33% PLO 31% NPD 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 34% PLO 31% NPD 23% PVO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 34% PLO 31% NPD 23% PVO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 34% PLO 31% NPD 23% PVO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 34% PLO 31% NPD 23% PVO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 38% PLO 32% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 38% PLO 32% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 38% PLO 32% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 34% PLO 32% NPD 22% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 35% PLO 32% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 36% PLO 32% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 33% PLO 33% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 35% PLO 31% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 22% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 37% PLO 33% NPD 21% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 37% PLO 33% NPD 21% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 36% PPCO 34% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 36% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 37% PLO 34% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 37% PLO 33% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 38% PLO 32% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 40% PLO 32% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 39% PLO 32% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 39% PLO 32% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Peterborough—Kawartha

PLO 10% PPCO 90% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 53% PLO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 69% PLO 30% NPD 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 70% PLO 30% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 70% PLO 30% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 68% PLO 32% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 66% PLO 34% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 62% PLO 37% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 58% PLO 42% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 51% PLO 49% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 68% PLO 32% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 68% PLO 32% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 70% PLO 30% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 70% PLO 30% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 76% PLO 24% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 66% PLO 34% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 78% PLO 22% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 81% PLO 19% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 82% PLO 18% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 81% PLO 18% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 82% PLO 18% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 80% PLO 19% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 84% PLO 16% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 83% PLO 17% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 51% PLO 48% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 51% PLO 48% NPD 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 63% PLO 37% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 69% PLO 31% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 69% PLO 31% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 69% PLO 31% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 70% PLO 30% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 73% PLO 27% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 91% PLO 9% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 87% PLO 13% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 84% PLO 16% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 85% PLO 15% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 89% PLO 11% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 71% PLO 29% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 71% PLO 29% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 78% PLO 22% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 79% PLO 21% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 54% PLO 46% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 79% PLO 21% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 93% PLO 7% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 79% PLO 21% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 73% PLO 27% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 67% PPCO 33% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 55% PLO 45% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 77% PLO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 90% PLO 10% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Peterborough—Kawartha



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 30,7% 37,5% 38,5% 39% ± 9% PLO 45,7% 24,6% 30,6% 32% ± 8% NPD 18,1% 33,9% 21,4% 19% ± 6% PON 0,0% 0,0% 3,8% 3% ± 2% PVO 4,3% 3,4% 3,7% 5% ± 3% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,1% 2% ± 2%