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Ontario

London—Fanshawe


Député(e) : Armstrong, Teresa (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
NPD enclin
London—Fanshawe 41% ± 9%▲ NPD 35% ± 8%▼ PPCO 13% ± 5% PLO 5% ± 3% PVO 3% ± 2% PNBO NPD 2022 47,1% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% London—Fanshawe 88%▲ NPD 12%▼ PPCO <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | London—Fanshawe

PLO 13% ± 5% PPCO 35% ± 8% NPD 41% ± 9% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | London—Fanshawe 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 40% PPCO 31% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 41% PPCO 31% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 40% PPCO 31% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 40% PPCO 31% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 40% PPCO 31% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 40% PPCO 31% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 39% PPCO 32% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 39% PPCO 32% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 39% PPCO 32% PLO 14% PVO 7% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 39% PPCO 32% PLO 15% PVO 7% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 36% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 37% PPCO 29% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 36% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 36% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 37% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 36% PPCO 31% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 36% PPCO 31% PLO 16% PVO 10% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 39% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 38% PPCO 31% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 47% PPCO 33% PLO 10% PVO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 48% PPCO 32% PLO 10% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 45% PPCO 33% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 45% PPCO 33% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 45% PPCO 33% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 46% PPCO 33% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 48% PPCO 29% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 48% PPCO 29% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 48% PPCO 30% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 47% PPCO 31% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 49% PPCO 29% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 48% PPCO 30% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 47% PPCO 32% PLO 10% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 47% PPCO 32% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 47% PPCO 32% PLO 12% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 43% PPCO 31% PLO 15% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 41% PPCO 33% PLO 15% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 43% PPCO 33% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 42% PPCO 33% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 42% PPCO 34% PLO 13% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 40% PPCO 36% PLO 13% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 41% PPCO 35% PLO 13% PVO 5% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | London—Fanshawe

PLO <1% PPCO 12% NPD 88% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 87% PPCO 13% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 87% PPCO 13% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 77% PPCO 23% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 88% PPCO 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | London—Fanshawe



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 50,1% 55,7% 47,1% 41% ± 9% PPCO 22,8% 29,8% 32,8% 35% ± 8% PLO 20,2% 8,4% 10,4% 13% ± 5% PVO 4,2% 4,5% 3,5% 5% ± 3% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 3,1% 3% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,6% 1% ± 2%