Ontario

Historique récent | Northumberland—Peterborough South


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 54% ± 9% 45,3% 51,0% 52,1% PLO 31% ± 8% 24,2% 25,0% 32,4% NPD 9% ± 4% 24,5% 13,1% 9,3% PVO 3% ± 2% 4,5% 5,7% 3,7% PNBO 1% ± 1% 0,0% 2,2% 1,3% PON 1% ± 1% 0,0% 3,1% 1,2%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Northumberland—Peterborough South

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Northumberland—Peterborough South 45% 63% 54% ± 9% PC 23% 39% 31% ± 8% PLO 5% 13% 9% ± 4% NPD PC 2025 52,1% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Northumberland—Peterborough South >99% PC <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Northumberland—Peterborough South

PLO 31% ± 8% PC 54% ± 9% NPD 9% ± 4% PVO 3% ± 2% Projection du vote % | Northumberland—Peterborough South 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 50% PLO 27% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 51% PLO 27% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 53% PLO 26% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 54% PLO 26% NPD 12% PVO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 53% PLO 27% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 53% PLO 27% NPD 11% PVO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 53% PLO 27% NPD 11% PVO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 54% PLO 26% NPD 11% PVO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 54% PLO 26% NPD 11% PVO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 11% PVO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 54% PLO 26% NPD 11% PVO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 54% PLO 26% NPD 11% PVO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 54% PLO 28% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 55% PLO 27% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 55% PLO 27% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 53% PLO 28% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 54% PLO 28% NPD 10% PVO 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 54% PLO 28% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 55% PLO 27% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 55% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 54% PLO 27% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 55% PLO 27% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 55% PLO 27% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 52% PLO 32% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 52% PLO 32% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 52% PLO 32% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 53% PLO 32% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 57% PLO 30% NPD 7% PVO 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 56% PLO 31% NPD 7% PVO 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 56% PLO 30% NPD 8% PVO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 54% PLO 31% NPD 9% PVO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 54% PLO 31% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 54% PLO 31% NPD 9% PVO 3% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Northumberland—Peterborough South

PLO <1% PC >99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-02-18