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Ontario

Essex


Député(e) : Leardi, Anthony (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 29 juillet 2024
PPCO solide
Essex 53% ± 9%▲ PPCO 24% ± 7%▼ NPD 11% ± 4% PLO 6% ± 4% PON 3% ± 2% PVO PPCO 2022 51,1% Projection du vote | 29 juillet 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Essex >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 29 juillet 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Essex

PLO 11% ± 4% PPCO 53% ± 9% NPD 24% ± 7% PON 6% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Essex 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PON 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 44% NPD 33% PLO 11% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 44% NPD 35% PLO 10% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 45% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 45% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 45% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 44% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 44% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 44% NPD 34% PLO 11% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 44% NPD 34% PLO 11% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 45% NPD 33% PLO 10% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 45% NPD 33% PLO 10% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 45% NPD 33% PLO 10% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 45% NPD 33% PLO 10% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 42% NPD 36% PLO 9% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 42% NPD 37% PLO 9% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 41% NPD 35% PLO 11% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 41% NPD 35% PLO 11% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 41% NPD 34% PLO 11% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 40% NPD 35% PLO 11% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 40% NPD 35% PLO 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 40% NPD 35% PLO 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 40% NPD 35% PLO 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 40% NPD 35% PLO 11% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 39% NPD 35% PLO 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 39% NPD 35% PLO 10% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 40% NPD 35% PLO 10% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 41% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 41% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 39% NPD 35% PLO 10% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 40% NPD 35% PLO 10% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 41% NPD 34% PLO 10% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 51% NPD 28% PLO 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 51% NPD 29% PLO 9% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 51% NPD 27% PLO 9% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 51% NPD 27% PLO 9% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 51% NPD 27% PLO 9% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 51% NPD 27% PLO 9% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 46% NPD 30% PLO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 46% NPD 30% PLO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 47% NPD 30% PLO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 48% NPD 29% PLO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 45% NPD 31% PLO 10% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 47% NPD 30% PLO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 51% NPD 30% PLO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 50% NPD 30% PLO 10% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 50% NPD 29% PLO 10% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 49% NPD 27% PLO 13% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 50% NPD 25% PLO 13% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 50% NPD 26% PLO 12% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 51% NPD 26% PLO 12% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 51% NPD 26% PLO 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 53% NPD 24% PLO 11% 2024-07-29

Probabilités de victoire | Essex

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 29 juillet 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 93% NPD 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 95% NPD 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 83% NPD 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 78% NPD 22% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 86% NPD 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 87% NPD 13% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 87% NPD 13% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 83% NPD 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 83% NPD 17% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 81% NPD 19% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 84% NPD 16% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 84% NPD 16% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 78% NPD 22% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 78% NPD 22% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 79% NPD 21% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 88% NPD 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 88% NPD 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 78% NPD 22% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 78% NPD 22% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 89% NPD 11% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29

Historique récent | Essex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 21,8% 42,3% 51,1% 53% ± 9% NPD 60,3% 48,5% 28,3% 24% ± 7% PLO 14,3% 5,7% 8,5% 11% ± 4% PON 0,0% 0,0% 6,8% 6% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,7% 2% ± 2% PVO 3,6% 3,5% 2,0% 3% ± 2%