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Ontario

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex


Député(e) : Pinsonneault, Steve (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 59% ± 9%▼ PPCO 20% ± 7% PLO 11% ± 5%▲ NPD 5% ± 4% PNBO PPCO 2022 59,0% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Lambton—Kent—Middlesex >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

PLO 20% ± 7% PPCO 59% ± 9% NPD 11% ± 5% PNBO 5% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PNBO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 12% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 55% NPD 24% PLO 11% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 56% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 12% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 56% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 56% NPD 22% PLO 11% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 56% NPD 22% PLO 11% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 55% NPD 22% PLO 11% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 55% NPD 23% PLO 11% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 13% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 54% NPD 22% PLO 13% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 53% NPD 21% PLO 12% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 52% NPD 23% PLO 12% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 52% NPD 23% PLO 12% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 52% NPD 23% PLO 12% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 52% NPD 22% PLO 12% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 52% NPD 22% PLO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 52% NPD 22% PLO 12% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 52% NPD 22% PLO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 53% NPD 22% PLO 12% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 54% NPD 21% PLO 12% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 54% NPD 21% PLO 12% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 54% NPD 21% PLO 12% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 55% NPD 20% PLO 12% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 56% NPD 20% PLO 11% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 59% NPD 19% PLO 10% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 58% NPD 19% PLO 10% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 59% NPD 18% PLO 10% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 59% NPD 18% PLO 10% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 59% NPD 18% PLO 10% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 58% NPD 18% PLO 10% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 53% NPD 20% PLO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 54% NPD 20% PLO 11% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 55% NPD 20% PLO 10% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 55% NPD 20% PLO 10% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 53% NPD 21% PLO 11% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 55% NPD 20% PLO 10% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 58% NPD 20% PLO 10% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 57% NPD 20% PLO 11% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 57% NPD 19% PLO 11% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 55% NPD 17% PLO 15% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 56% NPD 17% PLO 14% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 57% NPD 17% PLO 13% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 58% PLO 21% NPD 11% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 59% PLO 20% NPD 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 60% PLO 20% NPD 10% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 59% PLO 20% NPD 11% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 45,3% 55,3% 59,0% 59% ± 9% NPD 26,4% 33,3% 18,8% 11% ± 5% PLO 20,2% 6,2% 9,7% 20% ± 7% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 6,2% 5% ± 4% PVO 4,6% 3,3% 4,0% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,7% 1% ± 2%