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Ontario

Algoma—Manitoulin


Député(e) : Vacant ()

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
Pivot PPCO/NPD
Algoma—Manitoulin 38% ± 10%▲ PPCO 38% ± 10% NPD 14% ± 6% PLO 5% ± 4% PNBO 5% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 46,0% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Algoma—Manitoulin 52%▲ PPCO 48%▼ NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Algoma—Manitoulin

PLO 14% ± 6% PPCO 38% ± 10% NPD 38% ± 10% PVO 5% ± 4% PNBO 5% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Algoma—Manitoulin 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO PNBO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 43% PPCO 27% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 43% PPCO 27% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 42% PPCO 27% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 42% PPCO 27% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 42% PPCO 27% PLO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 43% PPCO 27% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 43% PPCO 27% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 42% PPCO 27% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 42% PPCO 27% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 42% PPCO 27% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 42% PPCO 28% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 42% PPCO 28% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 44% PPCO 29% PLO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 44% PPCO 30% PLO 16% PVO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 44% PPCO 29% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 42% PPCO 29% PLO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 44% PPCO 29% PLO 16% PVO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 44% PPCO 28% PLO 16% PVO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 44% PPCO 28% PLO 15% PVO 9% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 43% PPCO 27% PVO 14% PLO 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 43% PPCO 27% PVO 14% PLO 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 43% PPCO 28% PVO 14% PLO 11% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 43% PPCO 28% PVO 14% PLO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 42% PPCO 28% PVO 14% PLO 11% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 42% PPCO 28% PVO 14% PLO 11% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 46% PPCO 28% PLO 12% PVO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 45% PPCO 29% PLO 12% PVO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 45% PPCO 29% PLO 12% PVO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 47% PPCO 28% PLO 11% PVO 9% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 47% PPCO 29% PLO 11% PVO 9% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 46% PPCO 29% PLO 11% PVO 9% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 46% PPCO 35% PLO 9% PVO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 46% PPCO 35% PLO 9% PVO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 44% PPCO 36% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 44% PPCO 36% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 44% PPCO 36% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 45% PPCO 35% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 47% PPCO 32% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 47% PPCO 32% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 47% PPCO 33% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 46% PPCO 33% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 48% PPCO 31% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 47% PPCO 33% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 47% PPCO 35% PLO 9% PVO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 46% PPCO 35% PLO 10% PVO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 46% PPCO 35% PLO 10% PVO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 37% PPCO 31% PLO 22% PVO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 35% PPCO 33% PLO 21% PVO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 37% PPCO 33% PLO 20% PVO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 39% PPCO 36% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 39% PPCO 37% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 39% NPD 37% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 38% PPCO 37% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 38% NPD 38% PLO 14% PVO 5% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Algoma—Manitoulin

PLO <1% PPCO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 87% PPCO 13% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 87% PPCO 13% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 87% PPCO 13% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 90% PPCO 10% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 97% PPCO 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 83% PPCO 17% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 65% PPCO 35% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 71% PPCO 29% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 65% PPCO 35% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 62% PPCO 38% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 62% NPD 38% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 52% PPCO 48% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Algoma—Manitoulin



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 53,4% 58,3% 46,0% 38% ± 10% PPCO 17,3% 24,6% 35,4% 38% ± 10% PLO 24,5% 8,3% 8,7% 14% ± 6% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 5,3% 5% ± 4% PVO 3,1% 3,6% 3,1% 5% ± 4% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,5% 1% ± 2%