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Ontario

Scarborough North


Député(e) : Cho, Raymond (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PPCO probable
Scarborough North 48% ± 9% PPCO 31% ± 9%▼ PLO 17% ± 6% NPD PPCO 2022 48,5% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Scarborough North >99% PPCO <1% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Scarborough North

PLO 31% ± 9% PPCO 48% ± 9% NPD 17% ± 6% Projection du vote % | Scarborough North 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 44% PLO 33% NPD 17% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 46% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 16% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 46% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 16% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 16% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 16% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 44% PLO 30% NPD 17% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 46% PLO 30% NPD 16% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 46% PLO 30% NPD 16% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 46% PLO 30% NPD 16% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 47% PLO 29% NPD 16% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 50% PLO 28% NPD 15% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 49% PLO 30% NPD 18% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 48% PLO 30% NPD 19% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 48% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 48% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 48% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 48% PLO 31% NPD 18% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 44% PLO 32% NPD 20% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 44% PLO 32% NPD 20% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 20% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 45% PLO 31% NPD 20% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 42% PLO 33% NPD 21% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 44% PLO 31% NPD 21% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 47% PLO 30% NPD 20% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 19% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 45% PLO 32% NPD 19% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 41% PLO 37% NPD 18% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 44% PLO 35% NPD 17% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 45% PLO 34% NPD 18% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 46% PLO 33% NPD 17% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 47% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 49% PLO 31% NPD 16% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 48% PLO 32% NPD 17% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 48% PLO 31% NPD 17% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Scarborough North

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 72% PLO 28% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Scarborough North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 31,2% 50,2% 48,5% 48% ± 9% PLO 40,1% 22,4% 29,7% 31% ± 9% NPD 26,1% 24,8% 18,2% 17% ± 6% PVO 1,6% 1,6% 1,8% 2% ± 2% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,1% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,4% 0% ± 1%