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Parti libéral de l'Ontario

Mise à jour : 7 août 2026
ChefJohn Fraser (interim)
Proportion du suffrage en 202529,9%
Projection de vote actuelle33,8% ± 4,2%
Nombre actuel de députés-es élus-es14
Projection de sièges actuelle33 [18-48]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Projection de sièges Projection du vote | 7 août 2026 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% Majorité : 63 sièges Efficacité du vote | PLO Qc125 Ontario 4,5 siège/% [18-48] 34% ± 4% 2018 2025
Remarque : la fonction de sièges par vote, ou l'efficacité du vote, n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme telle sur des intervalles de vote étroits.

Projection du vote | 7 août 2026

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 29,6% ▼ 2025 30,0% 33,8% ± 4,2% ▼ Max. 38,0% ▼ Probabilités % PLO

Projection de sièges | 7 août 2026

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 3% 2% 1% 2025 14 seats Min. 18 ▼ 33 ▼ Max. 48 ▼ Majority 63 seats Probabilities % OLP

Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral de l'Ontario



Circonscriptions Parti actuel Projection
1.
Kingston and the Islands
Ted Hsu
 L PLO solide
2.
Orléans
Stephen Blais
 L PLO solide
3.
Ottawa South
John Fraser
 L PLO solide
4.
Beaches—East York
Mary-Margaret Mcmahon
 L PLO solide
5.
Ottawa—Vanier
Lucille Collard
 L PLO solide
6.
Don Valley West
Stephanie Bowman
 L PLO solide
7.
Don Valley East
Adil Shamji
 L PLO solide
8.
Nepean
Tyler Watt
 L PLO probable
9.
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Stephanie Smyth
 L PLO probable
10.
Scarborough—Guildwood
Andrea Hazell
 L PLO probable
11.
Kanata—Carleton
Karen Mccrimmon
 L PLO probable
12.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Lee Fairclough
 L PLO probable
13.
Ajax
Robert Cerjanec
 L PLO probable
14.
Burlington
Natalie Pierre
 PC PLO probable
15.
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Sheref Sabawy
 PC PLO probable
16.
Don Valley North
Jonathan Tsao
 L PLO probable
17.
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Silvia Gualtieri
 PC PLO enclin
18.
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Rudy Cuzzetto
 PC PLO enclin
19.
Oakville
Stephen Crawford
 PC PLO enclin
20.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Nina Tangri
 PC PLO enclin
21.
Newmarket—Aurora
Dawn Gallagher Murphy
 PC PLO enclin
22.
Mississauga Centre
Natalia Kusendova
 PC PLO enclin
23.
Milton
Zee Hamid
 PC PLO enclin
24.
Peterborough—Kawartha
Dave Smith
 PC PLO enclin
25.
York South—Weston
Mohamed Firin
 PC PLO enclin
26.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Michelle Cooper
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
27.
Whitby
Lorne Coe
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
28.
Pickering—Uxbridge
Peter Bethlenfalvy
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
29.
Willowdale
Stan Cho
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
30.
Scarborough Centre
David Smith
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
31.
Oakville North—Burlington
Effie Triantafilopoulos
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
32.
Markham—Stouffville
Paul Calandra
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
33.
Hamilton Mountain
Monica Ciriello
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
34.
Cambridge
Brian Riddell
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
35.
Mississauga—Malton
Deepak Anand
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
36.
Carleton
George Darouze
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
37.
Etobicoke Centre
Kinga Surma
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
38.
Markham—Thornhill
Logan Kanapathi
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
39.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Neil Lumsden
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
40.
Scarborough—Agincourt
Aris Babikian
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
41.
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Stéphane Sarrazin
 PC PPCO enclin
42.
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Vijay Thanigasalam
 PC PPCO enclin
43.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Downey
 PC PPCO enclin
44.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Mike Harris
 PC PPCO enclin
45.
Bay of Quinte
Tyler Allsopp
 PC PPCO enclin
46.
Brampton Centre
Charmaine Williams
 PC PPCO enclin
47.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Paul Vickers
 PC PPCO enclin
48.
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
John Jordan
 PC PPCO enclin
49.
Toronto Centre
Kristyn Wong-Tam
 N NPD enclin
50.
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Donna Skelly
 PC PPCO probable
51.
Humber River—Black Creek
Tom Rakocevic
 N Pivot PC/NPD
52.
Richmond Hill
Daisy Wai
 PC PPCO probable
53.
Brampton South
Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria
 PC PPCO probable
54.
Northumberland—Peterborough South
David Piccini
 PC PPCO probable
55.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Ric Bresee
 PC PPCO probable
56.
Wellington—Halton Hills
Joseph Racinsky
 PC PPCO probable
57.
Perth—Wellington
Matthew Rae
 PC PPCO probable
58.
Simcoe—Grey
Brian Saunderson
 PC PPCO probable
59.
Brampton East
Hardeep Grewal
 PC PPCO probable
60.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Michael Parsa
 PC PPCO probable
61.
Scarborough North
Raymond Cho
 PC PPCO probable
62.
Durham
Todd Mccarthy
 PC PPCO probable
63.
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Jess Dixon
 PC PPCO probable
64.
Brampton West
Amarjot Sandhu
 PC PPCO probable
65.
York Centre
Michael Kerzner
 PC PPCO probable
66.
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Kevin Holland
 PC PPCO probable
67.
Spadina—Fort York
Chris Glover
 N NPD probable
68.
Huron—Bruce
Lisa Thompson
 PC PPCO probable
69.
Parkdale—High Park
Alexa Gilmour
 N NPD probable
70.
Simcoe North
Jill Dunlop
 PC PPCO probable
71.
Brampton North
Graham Mcgregor
 PC PPCO probable
72.
University—Rosedale
Jessica Bell
 N NPD probable
73.
Niagara West
Sam Oosterhoff
 PC PPCO probable
74.
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
Steve Clark
 PC PPCO probable
75.
Markham—Unionville
Billy Pang
 PC PPCO probable
76.
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Stephen Pinsonneault
 PC PPCO probable
77.
Barrie—Innisfil
Andrea Khanjin
 PC PPCO probable
78.
Dufferin—Caledon
Sylvia Jones
 PC PPCO probable
79.
Scarborough Southwest
Doly Begum
 N NPD probable
80.
Etobicoke North
Doug Ford
 PC PPCO solide
81.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Laurie Scott
 PC PPCO solide
82.
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Rob Flack
 PC PPCO solide
83.
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Sandy Shaw
 N NPD probable
84.
Thornhill
Laura Smith
 PC PPCO solide
85.
Hamilton Centre
Robin Lennox
 N NPD solide
86.
King—Vaughan
Stephen Lecce
 PC PPCO solide
87.
Oxford
Ernie Hardeman
 PC PPCO solide
88.
York—Simcoe
Caroline Mulroney
 PC PPCO solide
89.
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Billy Denault
 PC PPCO solide
90.
Brantford—Brant
Will Bouma
 PC PPCO solide
91.
Algoma—Manitoulin
Bill Rosenberg
 PC PPCO probable
92.
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Lise Vaugeois
 N NPD probable