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Parti libéral de l'Ontario

Mise à jour : 24 mai 2026
ChefJohn Fraser (interim)
Proportion du suffrage en 202529,9%
Projection de vote actuelle35,1% ± 4,0%
Nombre actuel de députés-es élus-es14
Projection de sièges actuelle39 [25-53]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Projection de sièges Projection du vote | 24 mai 2026 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% Majorité : 63 sièges Efficacité du vote | PLO Qc125 Ontario 4,5 siège/% [25-53] 35% ± 4% 2018 2025
Remarque : la fonction de sièges par vote, ou l'efficacité du vote, n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme telle sur des intervalles de vote étroits.

Projection du vote | 24 mai 2026

26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2025 30,0% Min. 31,1% ▼ 35,1% ± 4,0% ▼ Max. 39,1% ▼ Probabilités % PLO

Projection de sièges | 24 mai 2026

7 12 17 22 27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 4% 3% 2% 1% 2025 14 seats Min. 25 ▼ 39 ▼ Max. 53 ▼ Majority 63 seats Probabilities % OLP

Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral de l'Ontario



Circonscriptions Parti actuel Projection
1.
Kingston and the Islands
Ted Hsu
 L PLO solide
2.
Don Valley West
Stephanie Bowman
 L PLO solide
3.
Don Valley East
Adil Shamji
 L PLO solide
4.
Orléans
Stephen Blais
 L PLO solide
5.
Ottawa South
John Fraser
 L PLO solide
6.
Beaches—East York
Mary-Margaret Mcmahon
 L PLO solide
7.
Ottawa—Vanier
Lucille Collard
 L PLO solide
8.
Nepean
Tyler Watt
 L PLO solide
9.
Kanata—Carleton
Karen Mccrimmon
 L PLO probable
10.
Scarborough—Guildwood
Andrea Hazell
 L PLO probable
11.
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Stephanie Smyth
 L PLO probable
12.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Lee Fairclough
 L PLO probable
13.
Burlington
Natalie Pierre
 PC PLO probable
14.
Ajax
Robert Cerjanec
 L PLO probable
15.
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Sheref Sabawy
 PC PLO probable
16.
Don Valley North
Jonathan Tsao
 L PLO probable
17.
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Rudy Cuzzetto
 PC PLO probable
18.
Oakville
Stephen Crawford
 PC PLO probable
19.
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Silvia Gualtieri
 PC PLO probable
20.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Nina Tangri
 PC PLO probable
21.
Newmarket—Aurora
Dawn Gallagher Murphy
 PC PLO probable
22.
Milton
Zee Hamid
 PC PLO enclin
23.
Mississauga Centre
Natalia Kusendova
 PC PLO enclin
24.
Peterborough—Kawartha
Dave Smith
 PC PLO enclin
25.
York South—Weston
Mohamed Firin
 PC PLO enclin
26.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Michelle Cooper
 PC PLO enclin
27.
Whitby
Lorne Coe
 PC PLO enclin
28.
Pickering—Uxbridge
Peter Bethlenfalvy
 PC PLO enclin
29.
Oakville North—Burlington
Effie Triantafilopoulos
 PC PLO enclin
30.
Willowdale
Stan Cho
 PC PLO enclin
31.
Scarborough Centre
David Smith
 PC PLO enclin
32.
Markham—Stouffville
Paul Calandra
 PC PLO enclin
33.
Hamilton Mountain
Monica Ciriello
 PC PLO enclin
34.
Cambridge
Brian Riddell
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
35.
Carleton
George Darouze
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
36.
Mississauga—Malton
Deepak Anand
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
37.
Etobicoke Centre
Kinga Surma
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
38.
Markham—Thornhill
Logan Kanapathi
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
39.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Neil Lumsden
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
40.
Scarborough—Agincourt
Aris Babikian
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
41.
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Stéphane Sarrazin
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
42.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Downey
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
43.
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Vijay Thanigasalam
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
44.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Mike Harris
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
45.
Bay of Quinte
Tyler Allsopp
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
46.
Brampton Centre
Charmaine Williams
 PC PPCO enclin
47.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Paul Vickers
 PC PPCO enclin
48.
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
John Jordan
 PC PPCO enclin
49.
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Donna Skelly
 PC PPCO enclin
50.
Toronto Centre
Kristyn Wong-Tam
 N NPD enclin
51.
Richmond Hill
Daisy Wai
 PC PPCO enclin
52.
Northumberland—Peterborough South
David Piccini
 PC PPCO enclin
53.
Brampton South
Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria
 PC PPCO enclin
54.
Humber River—Black Creek
Tom Rakocevic
 N Pivot PLO/PC/NPD
55.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Ric Bresee
 PC PPCO enclin
56.
Wellington—Halton Hills
Joseph Racinsky
 PC PPCO enclin
57.
Perth—Wellington
Matthew Rae
 PC PPCO enclin
58.
Simcoe—Grey
Brian Saunderson
 PC PPCO enclin
59.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Michael Parsa
 PC PPCO probable
60.
Brampton East
Hardeep Grewal
 PC PPCO probable
61.
Durham
Todd Mccarthy
 PC PPCO probable
62.
Scarborough North
Raymond Cho
 PC PPCO probable
63.
Brampton West
Amarjot Sandhu
 PC PPCO probable
64.
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Jess Dixon
 PC PPCO probable
65.
York Centre
Michael Kerzner
 PC PPCO probable
66.
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Kevin Holland
 PC PPCO probable
67.
Huron—Bruce
Lisa Thompson
 PC PPCO probable
68.
Spadina—Fort York
Chris Glover
 N NPD probable
69.
Parkdale—High Park
Alexa Gilmour
 N NPD probable
70.
Simcoe North
Jill Dunlop
 PC PPCO probable
71.
Brampton North
Graham Mcgregor
 PC PPCO probable
72.
University—Rosedale
Jessica Bell
 N NPD probable
73.
Niagara West
Sam Oosterhoff
 PC PPCO probable
74.
Markham—Unionville
Billy Pang
 PC PPCO probable
75.
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
Steve Clark
 PC PPCO probable
76.
Barrie—Innisfil
Andrea Khanjin
 PC PPCO probable
77.
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Stephen Pinsonneault
 PC PPCO probable
78.
Dufferin—Caledon
Sylvia Jones
 PC PPCO probable
79.
Scarborough Southwest
Doly Begum
 N NPD probable
80.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Laurie Scott
 PC PPCO solide
81.
Brantford—Brant
Will Bouma
 PC PPCO solide
82.
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Rob Flack
 PC PPCO solide
83.
Etobicoke North
Doug Ford
 PC PPCO solide
84.
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Sandy Shaw
 N NPD probable
85.
Oxford
Ernie Hardeman
 PC PPCO solide
86.
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Billy Denault
 PC PPCO solide
87.
Thornhill
Laura Smith
 PC PPCO solide
88.
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Lise Vaugeois
 N NPD probable
89.
King—Vaughan
Stephen Lecce
 PC PPCO solide
90.
Hamilton Centre
Robin Lennox
 N NPD solide
91.
Algoma—Manitoulin
Bill Rosenberg
 PC PPCO probable
92.
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Michael Tibollo
 PC PPCO solide
93.
Sarnia—Lambton
Bob Bailey
 PC PPCO solide
94.
York—Simcoe
Caroline Mulroney
 PC PPCO solide