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Parti libéral de l'Ontario

Mise à jour : 3 septembre 2026
ChefJohn Fraser (interim)
Proportion du suffrage en 202529,9%
Projection de vote actuelle33,5% ± 3,9%
Nombre actuel de députés-es élus-es14
Projection de sièges actuelle32 [19-45]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Projection de sièges Projection du vote | 3 septembre 2026 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% Majorité : 63 sièges Efficacité du vote | PLO Qc125 Ontario 4,3 siège/% [19-45] 33% ± 4% 2018 2025
Remarque : la fonction de sièges par vote, ou l'efficacité du vote, n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme telle sur des intervalles de vote étroits.

Projection du vote | 3 septembre 2026

25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 29,6% ▼ 2025 30,0% 33,5% ± 3,9% ▼ Max. 37,3% ▼ Probabilités % PLO

Projection de sièges | 3 septembre 2026

2 7 12 17 22 27 32 37 42 47 52 57 4% 3% 2% 1% 2025 14 seats Min. 19 ▼ 32 ▼ Max. 45 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral de l'Ontario



Circonscriptions Parti actuel Projection
1.
Kingston and the Islands
Ted Hsu
 L PLO solide
2.
Don Valley West
Stephanie Bowman
 L PLO solide
3.
Don Valley East
Adil Shamji
 L PLO solide
4.
Ottawa South
John Fraser
 L PLO solide
5.
Beaches—East York
Mary-Margaret Mcmahon
 L PLO solide
6.
Ottawa—Vanier
Lucille Collard
 L PLO solide
7.
Orléans
Stephen Blais
 L PLO solide
8.
Nepean
Tyler Watt
 L PLO probable
9.
Scarborough—Guildwood
Andrea Hazell
 L PLO probable
10.
Kanata—Carleton
Karen Mccrimmon
 L PLO probable
11.
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Stephanie Smyth
 L PLO probable
12.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Lee Fairclough
 L PLO probable
13.
Ajax
Robert Cerjanec
 L PLO probable
14.
Burlington
Natalie Pierre
 PC PLO probable
15.
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Sheref Sabawy
 PC PLO probable
16.
Don Valley North
Jonathan Tsao
 L PLO probable
17.
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Silvia Gualtieri
 PC PLO enclin
18.
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Rudy Cuzzetto
 PC PLO enclin
19.
Oakville
Stephen Crawford
 PC PLO enclin
20.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Nina Tangri
 PC PLO enclin
21.
Newmarket—Aurora
Dawn Gallagher Murphy
 PC PLO enclin
22.
Milton
Zee Hamid
 PC PLO enclin
23.
Mississauga Centre
Natalia Kusendova
 PC PLO enclin
24.
Peterborough—Kawartha
Dave Smith
 PC PLO enclin
25.
York South—Weston
Mohamed Firin
 PC PLO enclin
26.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Michelle Cooper
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
27.
Whitby
Lorne Coe
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
28.
Pickering—Uxbridge
Peter Bethlenfalvy
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
29.
Willowdale
Stan Cho
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
30.
Scarborough Centre
David Smith
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
31.
Oakville North—Burlington
Effie Triantafilopoulos
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
32.
Markham—Stouffville
Paul Calandra
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
33.
Cambridge
Brian Riddell
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
34.
Mississauga—Malton
Deepak Anand
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
35.
Carleton
George Darouze
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
36.
Etobicoke Centre
Kinga Surma
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
37.
Markham—Thornhill
Logan Kanapathi
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
38.
Scarborough—Agincourt
Aris Babikian
 PC Pivot PLO/PC
39.
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Stéphane Sarrazin
 PC PPCO enclin
40.
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Vijay Thanigasalam
 PC PPCO enclin
41.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Downey
 PC PPCO enclin
42.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Mike Harris
 PC PPCO enclin
43.
Bay of Quinte
Tyler Allsopp
 PC PPCO enclin
44.
Hamilton Mountain
Monica Ciriello
 PC Pivot PLO/PC/NPD
45.
Brampton Centre
Charmaine Williams
 PC PPCO enclin
46.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Paul Vickers
 PC PPCO enclin
47.
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
John Jordan
 PC PPCO enclin
48.
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Donna Skelly
 PC PPCO probable
49.
Richmond Hill
Daisy Wai
 PC PPCO probable
50.
Brampton South
Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria
 PC PPCO probable
51.
Northumberland—Peterborough South
David Piccini
 PC PPCO probable
52.
Toronto Centre
Kristyn Wong-Tam
 N NPD probable
53.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Ric Bresee
 PC PPCO probable
54.
Perth—Wellington
Matthew Rae
 PC PPCO probable
55.
Humber River—Black Creek
Tom Rakocevic
 N NPD enclin
56.
Wellington—Halton Hills
Joseph Racinsky
 PC PPCO probable
57.
Simcoe—Grey
Brian Saunderson
 PC PPCO probable
58.
Brampton East
Hardeep Grewal
 PC PPCO probable
59.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Michael Parsa
 PC PPCO probable
60.
Scarborough Southwest
Fatima Shaban
 N NPD probable
61.
Scarborough North
Raymond Cho
 PC PPCO probable
62.
Brampton West
Amarjot Sandhu
 PC PPCO probable
63.
Durham
Todd Mccarthy
 PC PPCO probable
64.
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Jess Dixon
 PC PPCO probable
65.
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Kevin Holland
 PC PPCO probable
66.
York Centre
Michael Kerzner
 PC PPCO probable
67.
Huron—Bruce
Lisa Thompson
 PC PPCO probable
68.
York—Simcoe
Susan Lahey
 PC PPCO probable
69.
Brampton North
Graham Mcgregor
 PC PPCO probable
70.
Spadina—Fort York
Chris Glover
 N NPD probable
71.
Simcoe North
Jill Dunlop
 PC PPCO probable
72.
Parkdale—High Park
Alexa Gilmour
 N NPD probable
73.
Niagara West
Sam Oosterhoff
 PC PPCO probable
74.
Markham—Unionville
Billy Pang
 PC PPCO probable
75.
Barrie—Innisfil
Andrea Khanjin
 PC PPCO probable
76.
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
Steve Clark
 PC PPCO probable
77.
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Stephen Pinsonneault
 PC PPCO probable
78.
University—Rosedale
Jessica Bell
 N NPD probable
79.
Dufferin—Caledon
Sylvia Jones
 PC PPCO solide
80.
Brantford—Brant
Will Bouma
 PC PPCO solide
81.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Laurie Scott
 PC PPCO solide
82.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Jeff Beattie
 PC PPCO enclin
83.
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Rob Flack
 PC PPCO solide
84.
Thornhill
Laura Smith
 PC PPCO solide
85.
Etobicoke North
Doug Ford
 PC PPCO solide
86.
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Billy Denault
 PC PPCO solide