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Ontario

Etobicoke Centre


Député(e) : Surma, Kinga (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO probable
Etobicoke Centre 48% ± 9%▼ PPCO 36% ± 9%▲ PLO 8% ± 4%▲ NPD 6% ± 4% PVO PPCO 2022 48,6% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Etobicoke Centre 98%▼ PPCO 2%▲ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Etobicoke Centre

PLO 36% ± 9% PPCO 48% ± 9% NPD 8% ± 4% PVO 6% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Etobicoke Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 40% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 40% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 40% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 40% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 40% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 40% PPCO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 41% PPCO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 41% PPCO 39% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 41% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 41% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 40% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 41% PPCO 40% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 40% PPCO 40% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 40% PPCO 40% NPD 12% PVO 2% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 39% PPCO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 39% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 40% PPCO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 40% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 39% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 39% PLO 38% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 39% PLO 38% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 39% PLO 38% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 40% PLO 38% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 40% PLO 38% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 39% PLO 38% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 39% PLO 38% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 42% PLO 36% NPD 12% PVO 3% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 49% PLO 34% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 48% PLO 34% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 48% PLO 35% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 47% PLO 35% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 47% PLO 35% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 48% PLO 35% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 44% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 44% PLO 36% NPD 9% PVO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 45% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 45% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 43% PLO 37% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 45% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 48% PLO 34% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 46% PLO 36% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 46% PLO 37% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 42% PPCO 41% NPD 8% PVO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 44% PLO 39% NPD 8% PVO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 45% PLO 38% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 46% PLO 37% NPD 8% PVO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 47% PLO 36% NPD 8% PVO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 49% PLO 35% NPD 7% PVO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 48% PLO 36% NPD 8% PVO 6% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Etobicoke Centre

PLO 2% PPCO 98% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 56% PLO 44% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 51% PLO 49% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 52% PLO 48% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 51% PLO 49% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 54% PLO 46% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 51% PLO 49% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 52% PPCO 48% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 57% PPCO 43% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 62% PPCO 38% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 56% PLO 44% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 56% PLO 44% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 59% PLO 41% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 58% PLO 42% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 66% PLO 34% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 54% PLO 46% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 53% PPCO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 50% PPCO 50% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 50% PPCO 50% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 50% PLO 50% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 52% PPCO 48% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 52% PLO 48% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 51% PLO 49% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 53% PLO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 53% PLO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 56% PLO 44% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 57% PLO 43% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 60% PLO 40% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 83% PLO 17% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 84% PLO 16% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 52% PPCO 48% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 79% PLO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 89% PLO 11% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Etobicoke Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 32,4% 42,7% 48,6% 48% ± 9% PLO 48,7% 34,4% 34,0% 36% ± 9% NPD 11,5% 18,0% 8,6% 8% ± 4% PVO 2,6% 2,3% 4,5% 6% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,5% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,2% 1% ± 1%