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Ontario

Oakville North—Burlington


Député(e) : Triantafilopoulos, Effie (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PPCO probable
Oakville North—Burlington 48% ± 9%▲ PPCO 35% ± 8% PLO 9% ± 4% NPD 5% ± 3%▼ PVO PPCO 2022 47,2% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Oakville North—Burlington 98% PPCO 2% PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Oakville North—Burlington

PLO 35% ± 8% PPCO 48% ± 9% NPD 9% ± 4% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Oakville North—Burlington 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 41% PLO 39% NPD 12% PVO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 39% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 39% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 39% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 39% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 39% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 39% PLO 38% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 39% PLO 38% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 39% PPCO 38% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 39% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 39% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 40% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 40% PLO 38% NPD 16% PVO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 41% PLO 37% NPD 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 40% PLO 38% NPD 17% PVO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 40% PLO 38% NPD 16% PVO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 40% PLO 38% NPD 16% PVO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 40% PLO 37% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 39% PLO 36% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 39% PLO 36% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 39% PLO 36% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 39% PLO 36% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 39% PLO 36% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 39% PLO 36% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 39% PLO 36% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 39% PLO 35% NPD 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 40% PLO 35% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 40% PLO 35% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 40% PLO 35% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 40% PLO 35% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 43% PLO 33% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 46% PLO 36% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 46% PLO 37% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 46% PLO 37% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 46% PLO 36% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 43% PLO 37% NPD 11% PVO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 43% PLO 37% NPD 11% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 44% PLO 36% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 44% PLO 36% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 41% PLO 38% NPD 11% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 44% PLO 36% NPD 11% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 45% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 44% PLO 38% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 42% PLO 40% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 44% PLO 39% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 45% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 46% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 47% PLO 35% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 48% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 47% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 48% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Oakville North—Burlington

PLO 2% PPCO 98% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 57% PLO 43% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 63% PLO 37% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 67% PLO 33% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 57% PLO 43% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 53% PLO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 53% PPCO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 67% PLO 33% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 67% PLO 33% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 74% PLO 26% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 63% PLO 37% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 64% PLO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 68% PLO 32% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 69% PLO 31% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 68% PLO 32% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 72% PLO 28% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 71% PLO 29% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 73% PLO 27% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 73% PLO 27% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 75% PLO 25% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 80% PLO 20% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 80% PLO 20% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 79% PLO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 81% PLO 19% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 92% PLO 8% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 85% PLO 15% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 85% PLO 15% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 90% PLO 10% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 71% PLO 29% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 90% PLO 10% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 86% PLO 14% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 82% PLO 18% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 90% PLO 10% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Oakville North—Burlington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 36,8% 46,4% 47,2% 48% ± 9% PLO 46,1% 24,4% 35,3% 35% ± 8% NPD 11,7% 24,4% 9,9% 9% ± 4% PVO 3,4% 3,7% 4,3% 5% ± 3% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,3% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,9% 1% ± 1%