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Ontario

Nepean


Député(e) : Macleod, Lisa (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PPCO enclin
Nepean 40% ± 9%▲ PPCO 34% ± 8%▼ PLO 18% ± 6% NPD 5% ± 3%▼ PVO PPCO 2022 39,2% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Nepean 83%▲ PPCO 17%▼ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Nepean

PLO 34% ± 8% PPCO 40% ± 9% NPD 18% ± 6% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Nepean 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 43% PLO 32% NPD 16% PVO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 40% PLO 32% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 40% PLO 32% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 39% PLO 33% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 42% PLO 32% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 42% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 41% PLO 32% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 41% PLO 33% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 41% PLO 32% NPD 19% PVO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 41% PLO 32% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 41% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 40% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 41% PLO 30% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 42% PLO 30% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 42% PLO 30% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 42% PLO 30% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 43% PLO 29% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 45% PLO 28% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 39% PLO 33% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 39% PLO 33% NPD 20% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 39% PLO 34% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 38% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 38% PLO 35% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 39% PLO 34% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 35% PLO 34% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 35% PLO 35% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 36% PLO 34% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 36% PLO 34% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 36% PPCO 34% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 36% PLO 34% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 39% PLO 33% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 37% PLO 35% NPD 20% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 37% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 39% PPCO 34% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 38% PPCO 36% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 37% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 38% PLO 36% NPD 19% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 39% PLO 34% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 40% PLO 34% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 39% PLO 35% NPD 18% PVO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 40% PLO 34% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Nepean

PLO 17% PPCO 83% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 91% PLO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 82% PLO 18% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 77% PLO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 71% PLO 29% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 72% PLO 28% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 79% PLO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 55% PLO 45% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 54% PLO 46% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 63% PLO 37% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 64% PPCO 36% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 64% PLO 36% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 85% PLO 15% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 64% PLO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 57% PLO 43% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 81% PPCO 19% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 59% PPCO 41% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 57% PLO 43% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 64% PLO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 79% PLO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 80% PLO 20% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 83% PLO 17% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Nepean



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 43,2% 45,2% 39,2% 40% ± 9% PLO 36,3% 19,6% 33,4% 34% ± 8% NPD 13,5% 28,6% 20,1% 18% ± 6% PVO 5,5% 5,1% 4,1% 5% ± 3% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,3% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,9% 1% ± 1%