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Ontario

Kitchener—Conestoga


Député(e) : Harris, Mike (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Kitchener—Conestoga 40% ± 9%▼ PPCO 24% ± 7%▲ NPD 20% ± 7% PLO 10% ± 5% PVO 5% ± 3% PNBO PPCO 2022 40,0% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Kitchener—Conestoga >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Kitchener—Conestoga

PLO 20% ± 7% PPCO 40% ± 9% NPD 24% ± 7% PVO 10% ± 5% PNBO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Kitchener—Conestoga 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO PNBO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 40% PLO 24% NPD 23% PVO 8% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 39% NPD 26% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 39% NPD 26% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 39% NPD 26% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 38% NPD 26% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 38% NPD 26% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 39% NPD 25% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 39% NPD 26% PLO 21% PVO 7% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 38% NPD 26% PLO 22% PVO 7% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 8% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 22% PVO 8% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 37% NPD 24% PLO 22% PVO 10% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 36% NPD 26% PLO 21% PVO 11% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 36% NPD 26% PLO 21% PVO 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 36% NPD 26% PLO 21% PVO 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 36% NPD 25% PLO 21% PVO 11% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 36% NPD 25% PLO 21% PVO 11% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 36% NPD 25% PLO 21% PVO 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 36% NPD 25% PLO 21% PVO 11% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 34% NPD 29% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 35% NPD 28% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 35% NPD 28% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 33% NPD 30% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 34% NPD 30% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 37% NPD 29% PLO 17% PVO 9% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 40% NPD 29% PLO 18% PVO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 40% NPD 29% PLO 18% PVO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 40% NPD 27% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 40% NPD 27% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 40% NPD 27% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 39% NPD 28% PLO 18% PVO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 35% NPD 30% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 36% NPD 30% PLO 18% PVO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 37% NPD 29% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 37% NPD 29% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 35% NPD 30% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 37% NPD 29% PLO 18% PVO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 39% NPD 29% PLO 17% PVO 10% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 38% NPD 28% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 38% NPD 28% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 36% NPD 25% PLO 23% PVO 10% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 37% NPD 24% PLO 23% PVO 10% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 38% NPD 25% PLO 21% PVO 10% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 38% NPD 24% PLO 21% PVO 10% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 39% NPD 24% PLO 20% PVO 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 41% NPD 23% PLO 20% PVO 10% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 40% NPD 24% PLO 20% PVO 10% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Kitchener—Conestoga

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 85% NPD 15% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 92% NPD 8% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 92% NPD 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 75% NPD 25% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 76% NPD 24% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 98% NPD 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 86% NPD 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 88% NPD 12% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 92% NPD 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 94% NPD 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 82% NPD 18% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 91% NPD 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 97% NPD 3% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 98% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 99% NPD 1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Kitchener—Conestoga



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 36,7% 39,6% 40,0% 40% ± 9% NPD 20,7% 38,0% 28,9% 24% ± 7% PLO 34,3% 14,1% 17,5% 20% ± 7% PVO 6,5% 6,5% 6,2% 10% ± 5% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 5,9% 5% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,3% 1% ± 1%