Scarborough—Rouge Park
Député(e) : Thanigasalam, Vijay (PPCO)
Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO probable
Scarborough—Rouge Park
45% ± 9%▼
PPCO
30% ± 8%▲
PLO
20% ± 7%▲
NPD
3% ± 3%
PVO
PPCO 2022
45,5%
Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des
sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit
pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125,
cliquez ici .
50%
100%
Scarborough—Rouge Park
>99%
PPCO
<1%
PLO
<1%
NPD
Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles
si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui . Elles sont calculées par un programme de type
Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).
Projection du vote | Scarborough—Rouge Park
PLO 30% ± 8%
PPCO 45% ± 9%
NPD 20% ± 7%
Projection du vote % | Scarborough—Rouge Park
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022-05-01
2022-09-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-05-01
2023-09-01
2024►
2024-01-01
2024-05-01
2024-09-01
2025►
2025-01-01
2025-05-01
Élection 2022
PLO
PPCO
NPD
9 octobre 2024
2022-04-30
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 26%
2022-04-30
2022-05-03
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 27%
2022-05-03
2022-05-04
PPCO 34%
PLO 32%
NPD 26%
2022-05-04
2022-05-05
PPCO 34%
PLO 32%
NPD 26%
2022-05-05
2022-05-06
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 26%
2022-05-06
2022-05-07
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 26%
2022-05-07
2022-05-08
PPCO 34%
PLO 32%
NPD 26%
2022-05-08
2022-05-09
PPCO 34%
PLO 32%
NPD 26%
2022-05-09
2022-05-10
PPCO 33%
PLO 33%
NPD 26%
2022-05-10
2022-05-11
PPCO 34%
PLO 32%
NPD 26%
2022-05-11
2022-05-12
PPCO 35%
PLO 32%
NPD 25%
2022-05-12
2022-05-13
PPCO 35%
PLO 32%
NPD 25%
2022-05-13
2022-05-14
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 25%
2022-05-14
2022-05-15
PPCO 35%
PLO 31%
NPD 25%
2022-05-15
2022-05-16
PPCO 34%
PLO 32%
NPD 25%
2022-05-16
2022-05-17
PPCO 34%
PLO 33%
NPD 24%
2022-05-17
2022-05-18
PPCO 34%
PLO 33%
NPD 23%
2022-05-18
2022-05-19
PPCO 34%
PLO 32%
NPD 23%
2022-05-19
2022-05-20
PPCO 33%
PLO 31%
NPD 25%
2022-05-20
2022-05-21
PPCO 33%
PLO 31%
NPD 25%
2022-05-21
2022-05-22
PPCO 33%
PLO 31%
NPD 25%
2022-05-22
2022-05-23
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 24%
2022-05-23
2022-05-24
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 24%
2022-05-24
2022-05-25
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 24%
2022-05-25
2022-05-26
PPCO 33%
PLO 31%
NPD 24%
2022-05-26
2022-05-27
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 24%
2022-05-27
2022-05-28
PPCO 35%
PLO 31%
NPD 23%
2022-05-28
2022-05-29
PPCO 35%
PLO 31%
NPD 23%
2022-05-29
2022-05-30
PPCO 34%
PLO 31%
NPD 23%
2022-05-30
2022-05-31
PPCO 35%
PLO 31%
NPD 23%
2022-05-31
2022-06-01
PPCO 37%
PLO 29%
NPD 23%
2022-06-01
2022-06-03
PPCO 46%
PLO 28%
NPD 22%
2022-06-03
2022-12-30
PPCO 45%
PLO 28%
NPD 22%
2022-12-30
2023-02-15
PPCO 45%
PLO 28%
NPD 21%
2023-02-15
2023-03-09
PPCO 45%
PLO 29%
NPD 20%
2023-03-09
2023-03-17
PPCO 45%
PLO 29%
NPD 20%
2023-03-17
2023-04-16
PPCO 45%
PLO 28%
NPD 21%
2023-04-16
2023-07-07
PPCO 41%
PLO 29%
NPD 23%
2023-07-07
2023-07-22
PPCO 42%
PLO 29%
NPD 23%
2023-07-22
2023-07-28
PPCO 42%
PLO 28%
NPD 23%
2023-07-28
2023-08-26
PPCO 42%
PLO 28%
NPD 23%
2023-08-26
2023-10-07
PPCO 40%
PLO 30%
NPD 24%
2023-10-07
2023-10-23
PPCO 42%
PLO 28%
NPD 24%
2023-10-23
2023-12-01
PPCO 45%
PLO 27%
NPD 23%
2023-12-01
2023-12-20
PPCO 43%
PLO 29%
NPD 22%
2023-12-20
2024-02-02
PPCO 43%
PLO 30%
NPD 22%
2024-02-02
2024-02-20
PPCO 39%
PLO 35%
NPD 21%
2024-02-20
2024-03-05
PPCO 42%
PLO 33%
NPD 20%
2024-03-05
2024-04-04
PPCO 43%
PLO 31%
NPD 21%
2024-04-04
2024-05-03
PPCO 43%
PLO 31%
NPD 20%
2024-05-03
2024-06-30
PPCO 44%
PLO 30%
NPD 21%
2024-06-30
2024-07-29
PPCO 46%
PLO 29%
NPD 19%
2024-07-29
2024-10-09
PPCO 45%
PLO 30%
NPD 20%
2024-10-09
Probabilités de victoire | Scarborough—Rouge Park
PLO <1%
PPCO >99%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
Probabilité de victoire
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022-05-01
2022-09-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-05-01
2023-09-01
2024►
2024-01-01
2024-05-01
2024-09-01
2025►
2025-01-01
2025-05-01
Élection 2022
PLO
PPCO
NPD
PVO
9 octobre 2024
2022-04-30
PPCO 69%
PLO 28%
NPD 3%
PVO <1%
2022-04-30
2022-05-03
PPCO 65%
PLO 31%
NPD 4%
PVO <1%
2022-05-03
2022-05-04
PPCO 67%
PLO 31%
NPD 2%
PVO <1%
2022-05-04
2022-05-05
PPCO 67%
PLO 32%
NPD 2%
PVO <1%
2022-05-05
2022-05-06
PPCO 69%
PLO 29%
NPD 2%
PVO <1%
2022-05-06
2022-05-07
PPCO 66%
PLO 32%
NPD 2%
PVO <1%
2022-05-07
2022-05-08
PPCO 63%
PLO 34%
NPD 3%
PVO <1%
2022-05-08
2022-05-09
PPCO 60%
PLO 38%
NPD 2%
PVO <1%
2022-05-09
2022-05-10
PPCO 53%
PLO 45%
NPD 2%
PVO <1%
2022-05-10
2022-05-11
PPCO 69%
PLO 30%
NPD 2%
PVO <1%
2022-05-11
2022-05-12
PPCO 69%
PLO 30%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-12
2022-05-13
PPCO 71%
PLO 28%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-13
2022-05-14
PPCO 71%
PLO 28%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-14
2022-05-15
PPCO 77%
PLO 22%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-15
2022-05-16
PPCO 67%
PLO 31%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-16
2022-05-17
PPCO 60%
PLO 40%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-17
2022-05-18
PPCO 63%
PLO 37%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-18
2022-05-19
PPCO 65%
PLO 35%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-19
2022-05-20
PPCO 64%
PLO 35%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-20
2022-05-21
PPCO 65%
PLO 34%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-21
2022-05-22
PPCO 63%
PLO 36%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-22
2022-05-23
PPCO 67%
PLO 32%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-23
2022-05-24
PPCO 66%
PLO 33%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-24
2022-05-25
PPCO 67%
PLO 32%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-25
2022-05-26
PPCO 68%
PLO 32%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-26
2022-05-27
PPCO 70%
PLO 30%
NPD 1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-27
2022-05-28
PPCO 75%
PLO 24%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-28
2022-05-29
PPCO 75%
PLO 24%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-29
2022-05-30
PPCO 75%
PLO 25%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-30
2022-05-31
PPCO 77%
PLO 23%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-05-31
2022-06-01
PPCO 94%
PLO 6%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-06-01
2022-06-03
PPCO >99%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
PLO <1%
2022-06-03
2022-12-30
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2022-12-30
2023-02-15
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2023-02-15
2023-03-09
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2023-03-09
2023-03-17
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2023-03-17
2023-04-16
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2023-04-16
2023-07-07
PPCO 99%
PLO 1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-07-07
2023-07-22
PPCO 99%
PLO 1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-07-22
2023-07-28
PPCO 99%
PLO 1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-07-28
2023-08-26
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-08-26
2023-10-07
PPCO 97%
PLO 3%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-10-07
2023-10-23
PPCO 99%
PLO <1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-10-23
2023-12-01
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-12-01
2023-12-20
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2023-12-20
2024-02-02
PPCO 99%
PLO 1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2024-02-02
2024-02-20
PPCO 80%
PLO 20%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2024-02-20
2024-03-05
PPCO 94%
PLO 6%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2024-03-05
2024-04-04
PPCO 97%
PLO 3%
NPD <1%
PVO <1%
2024-04-04
2024-05-03
PPCO 98%
PLO 2%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2024-05-03
2024-06-30
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2024-06-30
2024-07-29
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2024-07-29
2024-10-09
PPCO >99%
PLO <1%
PVO <1%
NPD <1%
2024-10-09
Historique récent | Scarborough—Rouge Park
2014
2018
2022
Proj.
PPCO
24,6%
38,6%
45,5%
45% ± 9%
PLO
48,0%
20,9%
27,5%
30% ± 8%
NPD
23,9%
36,3%
21,9%
20% ± 7%
PVO
2,3%
2,4%
2,4%
3% ± 3%
PON
0,0%
0,0%
1,5%
1% ± 1%
PNBO
0,0%
0,0%
0,8%
1% ± 1%