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Ontario

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell


Député(e) : Sarrazin, Stéphane (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 30 juin 2024
PPCO enclin
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 42% ± 9%▲ PPCO 39% ± 9%▼ PLO 9% ± 4% NPD 5% ± 3% PVO 4% ± 3%▲ PNBO PPCO 2022 42,5% Projection du vote | 30 juin 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 70%▲ PPCO 30%▼ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 30 juin 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

PLO 39% ± 9% PPCO 42% ± 9% NPD 9% ± 4% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 30 juin 2024 2022-04-23 PLO 47% PPCO 34% NPD 13% PVO 1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PLO 49% PPCO 34% NPD 11% PVO 1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PLO 49% PPCO 34% NPD 11% PVO 1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 45% PPCO 33% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 46% PPCO 33% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 44% PPCO 35% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 43% PPCO 36% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 43% PPCO 36% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 44% PPCO 36% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 44% PPCO 35% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 43% PPCO 36% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 43% PPCO 37% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 43% PPCO 37% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 43% PPCO 37% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 43% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 43% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 44% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 43% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 43% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 42% PPCO 37% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 42% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 42% PPCO 37% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 42% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 42% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 42% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 42% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 41% PPCO 37% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 41% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 41% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 41% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 41% PPCO 38% NPD 15% PVO 2% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 40% PPCO 40% NPD 14% PVO 2% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 42% PLO 39% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 42% PLO 39% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 42% PLO 40% NPD 8% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 8% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 8% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 8% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 41% PPCO 37% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 41% PPCO 37% NPD 9% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 41% PPCO 38% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 41% PPCO 39% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 42% PPCO 36% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 40% PPCO 38% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 41% PLO 40% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 42% PPCO 40% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 43% PPCO 39% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 46% PPCO 36% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 43% PPCO 39% NPD 8% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 41% PPCO 40% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 41% PLO 41% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 42% PLO 39% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-06-30

Probabilités de victoire | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

PLO 30% PPCO 70% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 30 juin 2024 2022-04-23 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 87% PPCO 13% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 89% PPCO 11% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 84% PPCO 16% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 84% PPCO 16% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 82% PPCO 18% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 82% PPCO 18% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 77% PPCO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 80% PPCO 20% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 83% PPCO 17% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 82% PPCO 18% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 79% PPCO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 79% PPCO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 79% PPCO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 81% PPCO 19% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 77% PPCO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 78% PPCO 22% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 76% PPCO 24% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 77% PPCO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 75% PPCO 25% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 70% PPCO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 70% PPCO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 70% PPCO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 67% PPCO 33% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 54% PPCO 46% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 81% PLO 19% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 68% PLO 32% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 61% PLO 39% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 54% PLO 46% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 55% PLO 45% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 52% PLO 48% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 73% PPCO 27% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 73% PPCO 27% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 65% PPCO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 64% PPCO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 64% PPCO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 64% PPCO 36% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 72% PPCO 28% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 95% PPCO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 77% PPCO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 56% PPCO 44% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 53% PLO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30

Historique récent | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 32,6% 41,0% 42,5% 42% ± 9% PLO 49,7% 31,7% 39,0% 39% ± 9% NPD 12,5% 21,8% 8,6% 9% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 4,4% 4% ± 3% PVO 3,2% 2,9% 3,8% 5% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,9% 2% ± 2%