logo
logo
Ontario

St. Catharines


Député(e) : Stevens, Jennie (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
Pivot PPCO/NPD
St. Catharines 35% ± 8% PPCO 33% ± 8% NPD 21% ± 7%▼ PLO 6% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 39,7% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% St. Catharines 66%▲ PPCO 34%▼ NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | St. Catharines

PLO 21% ± 7% PPCO 35% ± 8% NPD 33% ± 8% PVO 6% ± 4% Projection du vote % | St. Catharines 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 33% PPCO 31% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 33% PPCO 31% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 33% PPCO 31% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 33% PPCO 31% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 34% PPCO 31% NPD 26% PVO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 34% PPCO 31% NPD 27% PVO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 34% PPCO 31% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 35% PPCO 31% NPD 26% PVO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 34% PPCO 31% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 32% PPCO 32% NPD 27% PVO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 32% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 32% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 32% PLO 30% PPCO 29% PVO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 32% PPCO 29% PLO 29% PVO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 32% PLO 30% PPCO 28% PVO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 29% PVO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 29% PVO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 28% PVO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 31% PPCO 29% PLO 28% PVO 5% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 31% PPCO 29% PLO 28% PVO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 32% PPCO 29% PLO 28% PVO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 28% PVO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 31% PPCO 30% PLO 28% PVO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 32% PPCO 29% PLO 27% PVO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 32% PPCO 29% PLO 27% PVO 5% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 31% NPD 31% PLO 26% PVO 5% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 32% NPD 30% PLO 26% PVO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 32% NPD 30% PLO 26% PVO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 32% NPD 30% PLO 26% PVO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 31% NPD 31% PLO 26% PVO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 33% NPD 31% PLO 25% PVO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 40% PPCO 34% PLO 17% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 40% PPCO 34% PLO 17% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 38% PPCO 35% PLO 17% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 37% PPCO 34% PLO 18% PVO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 38% PPCO 34% PLO 18% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 38% PPCO 34% PLO 17% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 41% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 41% PPCO 31% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 41% PPCO 30% PLO 18% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 40% PPCO 32% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 40% PPCO 34% PLO 17% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 18% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 39% PPCO 33% PLO 18% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 34% PPCO 31% PLO 24% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 33% PPCO 33% PLO 24% PVO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 23% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 34% PPCO 33% PLO 22% PVO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 34% NPD 34% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 36% NPD 32% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 35% NPD 33% PLO 22% PVO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 35% NPD 33% PLO 21% PVO 6% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | St. Catharines

PLO <1% PPCO 66% NPD 34% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 57% PPCO 37% NPD 6% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 61% PPCO 31% NPD 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 63% PPCO 33% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 64% PPCO 33% NPD 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 65% PPCO 31% NPD 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 67% PPCO 29% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 70% PPCO 26% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 75% PPCO 23% NPD 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 67% PPCO 30% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 50% PPCO 45% NPD 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 59% PLO 24% PPCO 16% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 57% PLO 25% PPCO 18% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 57% PLO 24% PPCO 19% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 58% PPCO 22% PLO 20% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 60% PLO 25% PPCO 15% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NPD 47% PPCO 32% PLO 21% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NPD 48% PPCO 33% PLO 18% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NPD 49% PPCO 34% PLO 17% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 57% PPCO 29% PLO 14% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 57% PPCO 29% PLO 14% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 59% PPCO 26% PLO 15% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 53% PPCO 33% PLO 14% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 52% PPCO 33% PLO 15% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 62% PPCO 29% PLO 9% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 62% PPCO 29% PLO 9% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 49% NPD 45% PLO 7% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 62% NPD 32% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 62% NPD 32% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 61% NPD 32% PLO 6% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 48% NPD 48% PLO 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 65% NPD 34% PLO 1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 92% PPCO 8% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 85% PPCO 15% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 69% PPCO 31% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 70% PPCO 30% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 70% PPCO 30% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 76% PPCO 24% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 96% PPCO 4% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 93% PPCO 7% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 91% PPCO 9% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 94% PPCO 6% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 84% PPCO 16% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 86% PPCO 14% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 84% PPCO 16% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 73% PPCO 27% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 54% PPCO 45% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 61% PPCO 39% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 54% PPCO 46% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 51% NPD 49% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 75% NPD 25% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 61% NPD 39% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PPCO 66% NPD 34% PLO <1% PVO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | St. Catharines



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 24,6% 36,6% 39,7% 33% ± 8% PPCO 29,3% 33,6% 34,4% 35% ± 8% PLO 41,2% 24,5% 16,6% 21% ± 7% PVO 3,8% 3,7% 4,1% 6% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,6% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,4% 1% ± 1%