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Ontario

Sarnia—Lambton


Député(e) : Bailey, Bob (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO solide
Sarnia—Lambton 52% ± 9%▼ PPCO 20% ± 7% NPD 13% ± 5% PLO 6% ± 4% PNBO 5% ± 3%▲ PVO PPCO 2022 52,7% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton >99% PPCO <1% NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Sarnia—Lambton

PLO 13% ± 5% PPCO 52% ± 9% NPD 20% ± 7% PVO 5% ± 3% PNBO 6% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Sarnia—Lambton 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO PNBO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 53% NPD 26% PLO 9% PVO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 53% NPD 27% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 54% NPD 27% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 54% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 54% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 53% NPD 27% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 53% NPD 27% PLO 8% PVO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 53% NPD 26% PLO 9% PVO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 53% NPD 27% PLO 9% PVO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 54% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 54% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 54% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 54% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 54% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 53% NPD 26% PLO 8% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 53% NPD 25% PLO 10% PVO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 53% NPD 25% PLO 10% PVO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 52% NPD 24% PLO 10% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 51% NPD 25% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 51% NPD 25% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 51% NPD 26% PLO 9% PVO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 51% NPD 25% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 51% NPD 25% PLO 9% PVO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 51% NPD 25% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 51% NPD 25% PLO 9% PVO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 52% NPD 24% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 53% NPD 23% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 53% NPD 23% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 53% NPD 23% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 54% NPD 23% PLO 9% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 55% NPD 22% PLO 8% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 53% NPD 24% PLO 10% PVO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 52% NPD 24% PLO 11% PVO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 53% NPD 22% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 52% NPD 22% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 52% NPD 22% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 52% NPD 23% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 47% NPD 25% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 48% NPD 25% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 49% NPD 25% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 49% NPD 25% PLO 11% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 47% NPD 26% PLO 12% PVO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 48% NPD 25% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 52% NPD 25% PLO 11% PVO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 51% NPD 24% PLO 12% PVO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 51% NPD 24% PLO 12% PVO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 49% NPD 22% PLO 16% PVO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 50% NPD 21% PLO 15% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 51% NPD 21% PLO 14% PVO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 51% NPD 21% PLO 14% PVO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 52% NPD 21% PLO 13% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 54% NPD 20% PLO 13% PVO 4% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 52% NPD 20% PLO 13% PVO 5% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Sarnia—Lambton

PLO <1% PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Sarnia—Lambton



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 41,0% 52,8% 52,7% 52% ± 9% NPD 35,8% 37,4% 23,6% 20% ± 7% PLO 17,9% 4,4% 10,5% 13% ± 5% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 6,8% 6% ± 4% PVO 4,6% 3,7% 3,2% 5% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,9% 1% ± 1%