Ontario

Historique récent | Sarnia—Lambton


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 53% ± 9% 52,8% 52,7% 51,3% NPD 19% ± 7% 37,4% 23,6% 19,7% PLO 18% ± 6% 4,4% 10,5% 18,4% PNBO 4% ± 3% 0,0% 6,8% 4,3% IND 2% ± 2% 0,0% 0,0% 2,0% PVO 2% ± 2% 3,7% 3,2% 1,9% PON 1% ± 1% 0,0% 0,9% 0,8%

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…


Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Sarnia—Lambton

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Sarnia—Lambton 44% 62% 53% ± 9% PC 12% 26% 19% ± 7% NPD 11% 24% 18% ± 6% PLO 1% 7% 4% ± 3% PNBO PC 2025 51,27% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton >99% PC <1% NPD <1% PLO Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Sarnia—Lambton

PLO 18% ± 6% PC 53% ± 9% NPD 19% ± 7% PNBO 4% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Sarnia—Lambton 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PNBO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC 54% NPD 21% PLO 13% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 55% NPD 21% PLO 13% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 59% NPD 20% PLO 12% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 59% NPD 20% PLO 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 58% NPD 20% PLO 13% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 59% NPD 19% PLO 13% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 59% NPD 19% PLO 13% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 60% NPD 18% PLO 13% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 60% NPD 19% PLO 13% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 59% NPD 19% PLO 13% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 59% NPD 19% PLO 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 59% NPD 19% PLO 13% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 60% NPD 18% PLO 13% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 60% NPD 17% PLO 13% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 60% NPD 17% PLO 13% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 60% NPD 17% PLO 14% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 61% NPD 16% PLO 13% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 61% NPD 16% PLO 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 60% NPD 17% PLO 14% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 60% NPD 17% PLO 14% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 61% NPD 17% PLO 14% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 61% NPD 16% PLO 14% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 61% NPD 17% PLO 14% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 61% NPD 17% PLO 13% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 61% NPD 17% PLO 13% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 61% NPD 17% PLO 13% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 61% NPD 17% PLO 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 61% NPD 16% PLO 13% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 62% NPD 16% PLO 13% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 51% NPD 20% PLO 18% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 52% NPD 19% PLO 18% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 52% NPD 19% PLO 18% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 52% NPD 19% PLO 18% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 57% PLO 17% NPD 16% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 57% PLO 18% NPD 16% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 55% PLO 17% NPD 17% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 54% NPD 19% PLO 17% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 53% NPD 19% PLO 18% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 53% NPD 19% PLO 18% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Sarnia—Lambton

PLO <1% PC >99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2026-02-18