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Ontario

Markham—Stouffville


Député(e) : Calandra, Paul (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO probable
Markham—Stouffville 48% ± 9%▼ PPCO 36% ± 9%▲ PLO 9% ± 4% NPD 5% ± 3% PVO PPCO 2022 48,4% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 98%▼ PPCO 2%▲ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Markham—Stouffville

PLO 36% ± 9% PPCO 48% ± 9% NPD 9% ± 4% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Markham—Stouffville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 43% PLO 40% NPD 9% PVO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 41% PLO 38% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 41% PLO 38% NPD 14% PVO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 42% PLO 38% NPD 14% PVO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 41% PLO 38% NPD 14% PVO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 41% PLO 38% NPD 14% PVO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 41% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 41% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 40% PLO 40% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 42% PLO 38% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 42% PLO 38% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 42% PLO 38% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 42% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 43% PLO 38% NPD 14% PVO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 42% PLO 39% NPD 14% PVO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 42% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 42% PLO 39% NPD 13% PVO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 42% PLO 38% NPD 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 41% PLO 37% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 41% PLO 37% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 41% PLO 38% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 42% PLO 37% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 42% PLO 37% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 41% PLO 37% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 41% PLO 37% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 43% PLO 35% NPD 15% PVO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 44% PLO 35% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 44% PLO 35% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 44% PLO 35% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 45% PLO 34% NPD 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 47% PLO 33% NPD 13% PVO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 48% PLO 36% NPD 10% PVO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 48% PLO 36% NPD 10% PVO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 48% PLO 36% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 47% PLO 37% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 47% PLO 37% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 47% PLO 36% NPD 9% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 44% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 44% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 45% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 45% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 43% PLO 39% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 45% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 48% PLO 35% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 46% PLO 37% NPD 10% PVO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 46% PLO 38% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 44% PLO 40% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 45% PLO 39% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 46% PLO 38% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 47% PLO 37% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 48% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 50% PLO 35% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 48% PLO 36% NPD 9% PVO 5% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Markham—Stouffville

PLO 2% PPCO 98% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 74% PLO 26% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 72% PLO 28% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 61% PLO 39% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 53% PLO 47% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 73% PLO 27% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 72% PLO 28% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 79% PLO 21% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 68% PLO 32% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 73% PLO 27% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 75% PLO 25% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 75% PLO 25% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 75% PLO 25% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 73% PLO 27% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 77% PLO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 76% PLO 24% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 77% PLO 23% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 78% PLO 22% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 92% PLO 8% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 92% PLO 8% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 75% PLO 25% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 93% PLO 7% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 90% PLO 10% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 70% PLO 30% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 85% PLO 15% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 92% PLO 8% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 95% PLO 5% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 99% PLO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Markham—Stouffville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 34,1% 48,1% 48,4% 48% ± 9% PLO 48,5% 26,0% 35,5% 36% ± 9% NPD 12,1% 20,4% 9,5% 9% ± 4% PVO 3,7% 4,0% 3,9% 5% ± 3% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,5% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,2% 1% ± 1%