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Ontario

Bay of Quinte


Député(e) : Smith, Todd (PPCO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PPCO enclin
Bay of Quinte 38% ± 9%▼ PPCO 31% ± 8%▲ PLO 19% ± 6% NPD 7% ± 4%▼ PVO PPCO 2022 49,3% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Bay of Quinte 90%▼ PPCO 10%▲ PLO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Bay of Quinte

PLO 31% ± 8% PPCO 38% ± 9% NPD 19% ± 6% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Bay of Quinte 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO 47% PLO 25% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO 45% PLO 24% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO 44% PLO 24% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO 44% PLO 24% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO 44% PLO 24% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO 44% PLO 24% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO 43% PLO 25% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO 44% PLO 24% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO 45% PLO 24% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO 45% PLO 24% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO 46% PLO 25% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO 46% PLO 24% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO 46% PLO 25% NPD 22% PVO 4% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO 45% PLO 27% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO 45% PLO 27% NPD 21% PVO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO 45% PLO 26% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 22% PVO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 22% PVO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO 43% PLO 26% NPD 22% PVO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO 44% PLO 25% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO 45% PLO 25% NPD 21% PVO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO 45% PLO 25% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO 46% PLO 25% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO 45% PLO 25% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO 46% PLO 24% NPD 20% PVO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO 48% PLO 23% NPD 19% PVO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 18% PVO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO 49% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO 49% PLO 20% NPD 19% PVO 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO 49% PLO 20% NPD 19% PVO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO 49% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO 43% NPD 22% PLO 19% PVO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO 44% NPD 22% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO 45% NPD 22% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO 45% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO 43% NPD 22% PLO 20% PVO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO 45% NPD 22% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO 48% NPD 21% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO 47% NPD 21% PLO 20% PVO 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO 47% NPD 21% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO 44% PLO 23% NPD 20% PVO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO 46% PLO 22% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO 46% NPD 21% PLO 21% PVO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO 47% NPD 20% PLO 20% PVO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO 48% NPD 20% PLO 19% PVO 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO 49% NPD 19% PLO 19% PVO 8% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 38% PLO 31% NPD 19% PVO 7% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Bay of Quinte

PLO 10% PPCO 90% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PPCO >99% PLO <1% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PPCO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PPCO >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PPCO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PLO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PPCO 90% PLO 10% NPD <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Bay of Quinte



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PPCO 39,0% 48,1% 49,3% 38% ± 9% NPD 17,1% 31,8% 20,9% 19% ± 6% PLO 38,2% 14,9% 18,5% 31% ± 8% PVO 4,9% 3,4% 6,3% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 2,6% 2% ± 2% PON 0,0% 0,0% 2,5% 2% ± 2%