Ontario

Historique récent | Ottawa—Vanier


2018 2022 2025 Projection PLO 51% ± 10% 42,9% 41,0% 51,6% PC 24% ± 7% 21,4% 20,2% 22,6% NPD 18% ± 7% 29,7% 25,5% 18,2% PVO 5% ± 3% 4,1% 7,9% 5,2% PNBO 1% ± 1% 0,0% 1,0% 1,2%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Ottawa—Vanier

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Ottawa—Vanier 41% 60% 51% ± 10% PLO 16% 31% 24% ± 7% PC 11% 25% 18% ± 7% NPD 2% 8% 5% ± 3% PVO PLO 2025 51,56% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Ottawa—Vanier >99% PLO <1% PC <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Ottawa—Vanier

PLO 51% ± 10% PC 24% ± 7% NPD 18% ± 7% PVO 5% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Ottawa—Vanier 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD PVO 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PLO 41% NPD 23% PC 22% PVO 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PLO 41% NPD 22% PC 22% PVO 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PLO 40% PC 25% NPD 22% PVO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PLO 40% PC 25% NPD 22% PVO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PLO 41% PC 25% NPD 22% PVO 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PLO 42% PC 26% NPD 20% PVO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PLO 42% PC 25% NPD 20% PVO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PLO 41% PC 26% NPD 20% PVO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PLO 41% PC 26% NPD 20% PVO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PLO 41% PC 26% NPD 21% PVO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PLO 40% PC 26% NPD 21% PVO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PLO 41% PC 26% NPD 21% PVO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PLO 42% PC 26% NPD 20% PVO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PLO 42% PC 26% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PLO 44% PC 25% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PLO 44% PC 26% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PLO 44% PC 26% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PLO 44% PC 26% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PLO 44% PC 26% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 19% PVO 9% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PLO 43% PC 26% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PLO 44% PC 27% NPD 18% PVO 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PLO 52% PC 23% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PLO 51% PC 23% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PLO 52% PC 23% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PLO 51% PC 23% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PLO 51% PC 26% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PLO 52% PC 26% NPD 15% PVO 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PLO 51% PC 25% NPD 16% PVO 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PLO 50% PC 24% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PLO 50% PC 24% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PLO 51% PC 24% NPD 18% PVO 5% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Ottawa—Vanier

PLO >99% NPD <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PLO >99% NPD <1% 2026-02-18