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Ontario

Toronto Centre


Député(e) : Wong-Tam, Kristyn (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
Pivot PLO/NPD
Toronto Centre 39% ± 9%▼ PLO 39% ± 9% NPD 13% ± 5% PPCO 7% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 43,8% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Toronto Centre 55%▲ PLO 45%▼ NPD <1% PPCO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Toronto Centre

PLO 39% ± 9% PPCO 13% ± 5% NPD 39% ± 9% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Toronto Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 39% NPD 39% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 39% PLO 39% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 39% NPD 38% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 40% NPD 38% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 39% NPD 38% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 39% NPD 38% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 39% NPD 38% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 40% NPD 38% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 39% NPD 39% PPCO 13% PVO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 39% PLO 38% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 39% PLO 38% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 39% PLO 38% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 39% PLO 38% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 39% PLO 38% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 39% PLO 38% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 40% NPD 37% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 40% NPD 36% PPCO 14% PVO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 39% NPD 36% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 39% NPD 36% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 38% NPD 36% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 38% NPD 37% PPCO 13% PVO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 38% NPD 36% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 39% NPD 36% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 38% NPD 36% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 38% NPD 36% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 38% PLO 36% PPCO 14% PVO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 37% PLO 36% PPCO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 37% PLO 36% PPCO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 37% PLO 37% PPCO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 37% PLO 36% PPCO 15% PVO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 37% PLO 36% PPCO 15% PVO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 44% PLO 37% PPCO 12% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 44% PLO 36% PPCO 12% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 41% PLO 38% PPCO 12% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 41% PLO 39% PPCO 12% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 41% PLO 39% PPCO 12% PVO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 42% PLO 38% PPCO 12% PVO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 44% PLO 37% PPCO 10% PVO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 43% PLO 37% PPCO 10% PVO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 43% PLO 37% PPCO 10% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 43% PLO 37% PPCO 11% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 43% PLO 38% PPCO 10% PVO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 44% PLO 37% PPCO 10% PVO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 44% PLO 36% PPCO 11% PVO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 42% PLO 38% PPCO 11% PVO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 42% PLO 39% PPCO 11% PVO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 44% NPD 39% PPCO 10% PVO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 43% NPD 37% PPCO 12% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 41% NPD 39% PPCO 12% PVO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 40% NPD 39% PPCO 12% PVO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 40% PLO 39% PPCO 12% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 39% NPD 38% PPCO 13% PVO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 40% NPD 39% PPCO 13% PVO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 39% NPD 39% PPCO 13% PVO 7% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Toronto Centre

PLO 55% PPCO <1% NPD 45% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 51% NPD 49% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 51% PLO 49% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 58% NPD 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 61% NPD 39% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 56% NPD 44% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 56% NPD 44% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 57% NPD 43% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 65% NPD 35% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 58% PLO 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 56% PLO 44% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 54% PLO 46% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 54% PLO 46% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 59% PLO 41% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 55% PLO 45% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 70% NPD 30% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 73% NPD 27% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 70% NPD 30% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 64% NPD 36% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 63% NPD 37% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 63% NPD 37% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 65% NPD 35% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 67% NPD 33% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 68% NPD 32% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 68% NPD 32% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 58% PLO 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 52% PLO 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 52% PLO 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 52% PLO 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 52% PLO 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 59% PLO 41% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 68% PLO 32% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 61% PLO 39% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 74% PLO 26% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 86% PLO 14% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 85% PLO 15% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 84% PLO 16% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 82% PLO 18% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 80% PLO 20% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 86% PLO 14% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 73% PLO 27% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 63% PLO 37% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 78% NPD 22% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 80% NPD 20% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 59% NPD 41% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 59% NPD 41% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 53% PLO 47% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 58% NPD 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 54% NPD 46% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 55% NPD 45% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Toronto Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 19,5% 53,7% 43,8% 39% ± 9% PLO 60,5% 27,2% 36,7% 39% ± 9% PPCO 12,2% 14,1% 12,2% 13% ± 5% PVO 4,7% 3,1% 5,1% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,1% 1% ± 1%