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Ontario

Toronto—St. Paul’s


Député(e) : Andrew, Jill (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PLO enclin
Toronto—St. Paul’s 36% ± 9% PLO 32% ± 8% NPD 23% ± 7% PPCO 7% ± 4% PVO NPD 2022 36,3% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s 79%▲ PLO 21%▼ NPD <1% PPCO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Toronto—St. Paul’s

PLO 36% ± 9% PPCO 23% ± 7% NPD 32% ± 8% PVO 7% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 38% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 38% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 38% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 38% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 37% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 37% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 37% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 25% PVO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 38% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 38% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 37% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 37% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 37% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 37% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 36% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 36% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 36% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 36% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 36% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 36% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 36% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 36% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 36% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 36% NPD 28% PPCO 26% PVO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 36% PLO 34% PPCO 22% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 37% PLO 34% PPCO 22% PVO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 35% NPD 34% PPCO 22% PVO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 36% NPD 34% PPCO 22% PVO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 36% NPD 34% PPCO 22% PVO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 35% PLO 35% PPCO 22% PVO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 36% PLO 34% PPCO 19% PVO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 36% PLO 34% PPCO 19% PVO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 36% PLO 34% PPCO 20% PVO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 36% PLO 34% PPCO 20% PVO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 36% PLO 35% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 37% PLO 34% PPCO 20% PVO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 36% PLO 33% PPCO 22% PVO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 35% NPD 35% PPCO 21% PVO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 36% NPD 35% PPCO 21% PVO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 41% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 39% NPD 31% PPCO 21% PVO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 38% NPD 33% PPCO 21% PVO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 37% NPD 32% PPCO 22% PVO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 22% PVO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 23% PVO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 23% PVO 7% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Toronto—St. Paul’s

PLO 79% PPCO <1% NPD 21% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 88% NPD 12% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 87% NPD 13% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 90% NPD 10% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 91% NPD 9% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 78% NPD 22% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 78% NPD 22% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 79% NPD 21% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 85% NPD 15% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 86% NPD 14% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 80% NPD 20% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 81% NPD 18% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 82% NPD 18% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 82% NPD 18% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 78% NPD 21% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 83% NPD 17% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 94% NPD 6% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 95% NPD 5% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 94% NPD 6% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 92% NPD 8% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 91% NPD 9% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 91% NPD 9% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 89% NPD 11% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 90% NPD 10% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 90% NPD 10% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 90% NPD 9% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 90% NPD 10% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 92% NPD 7% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 92% NPD 7% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 92% NPD 7% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 92% NPD 7% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 93% NPD 6% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 75% PLO 25% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 70% PLO 30% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 55% NPD 45% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 63% NPD 37% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 63% NPD 37% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 51% PLO 49% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 67% PLO 33% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 62% PLO 38% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 60% PLO 40% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 58% PLO 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 67% PLO 33% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 70% PLO 30% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 62% NPD 38% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 93% NPD 7% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 93% NPD 7% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 81% NPD 19% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 82% NPD 18% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 73% NPD 27% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 81% NPD 19% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 78% NPD 22% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 79% NPD 21% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 10,5% 36,0% 36,3% 32% ± 8% PLO 59,2% 33,4% 33,7% 36% ± 9% PPCO 24,0% 26,3% 22,4% 23% ± 7% PVO 5,2% 3,2% 5,5% 7% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,1% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,3% 0% ± 1%