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Ontario

Beaches—East York


Député(e) : Mcmahon, Mary-Margaret (PLO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PLO probable
Beaches—East York 38% ± 9%▲ PLO 29% ± 8% NPD 19% ± 6%▼ PPCO 12% ± 6% PVO PLO 2022 35,4% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Beaches—East York 95%▼ PLO 5%▲ NPD <1% PPCO Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Beaches—East York

PLO 38% ± 9% PPCO 19% ± 6% NPD 29% ± 8% PVO 12% ± 6% Projection du vote % | Beaches—East York 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 39% NPD 34% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 37% NPD 36% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 36% NPD 36% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 37% NPD 36% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 36% NPD 36% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 36% NPD 36% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 36% NPD 36% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 37% NPD 35% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 37% NPD 35% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 36% NPD 36% PPCO 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 36% NPD 36% PPCO 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 36% NPD 35% PPCO 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 36% NPD 35% PPCO 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 36% NPD 35% PPCO 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 36% NPD 35% PPCO 17% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 38% NPD 33% PPCO 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 38% NPD 33% PPCO 18% PVO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 37% NPD 32% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 17% PVO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 35% NPD 32% PPCO 18% PVO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 35% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 35% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 35% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 35% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 35% NPD 32% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO 35% NPD 33% PPCO 18% PVO 10% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 35% NPD 34% PPCO 18% PVO 10% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 36% NPD 31% PPCO 18% PVO 12% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 37% NPD 31% PPCO 18% PVO 12% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 37% NPD 31% PPCO 18% PVO 11% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO 36% NPD 32% PPCO 18% PVO 11% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 35% NPD 33% PPCO 16% PVO 13% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 16% PVO 13% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 16% PVO 12% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 16% PVO 12% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 37% NPD 33% PPCO 15% PVO 12% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 36% NPD 33% PPCO 16% PVO 12% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 35% NPD 33% PPCO 18% PVO 12% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 37% NPD 32% PPCO 17% PVO 11% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 38% NPD 32% PPCO 17% PVO 11% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 42% NPD 30% PPCO 15% PVO 11% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 41% NPD 28% PPCO 17% PVO 11% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 39% NPD 30% PPCO 18% PVO 11% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 39% NPD 29% PPCO 18% PVO 11% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 38% NPD 30% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 37% NPD 29% PPCO 20% PVO 12% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 38% NPD 29% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Beaches—East York

PLO 95% PPCO <1% NPD 5% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 77% NPD 23% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 60% NPD 40% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 54% NPD 46% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 57% NPD 43% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 51% NPD 49% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 52% NPD 48% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 61% NPD 39% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 64% NPD 36% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 54% NPD 46% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 56% NPD 44% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 57% NPD 43% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 58% NPD 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 53% NPD 47% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 58% NPD 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 80% NPD 20% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 82% NPD 18% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 80% NPD 20% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 74% NPD 26% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 73% NPD 27% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 74% NPD 26% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 71% NPD 29% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 72% NPD 28% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 73% NPD 27% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 73% NPD 27% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 72% NPD 28% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 70% NPD 30% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 71% NPD 29% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 71% NPD 29% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 70% NPD 30% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 72% NPD 28% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO 72% NPD 28% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 61% NPD 39% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 83% NPD 17% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 88% NPD 12% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 88% NPD 12% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO 79% NPD 21% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 66% NPD 34% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 68% NPD 32% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 71% NPD 29% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 72% NPD 28% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 74% NPD 26% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 66% NPD 34% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 63% NPD 37% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 82% NPD 18% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 88% NPD 12% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 93% NPD 7% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 96% NPD 4% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 95% NPD 5% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Beaches—East York



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PLO 40,1% 27,0% 35,4% 38% ± 9% NPD 39,0% 48,2% 33,2% 29% ± 8% PPCO 13,9% 18,4% 18,5% 19% ± 6% PVO 5,4% 4,3% 10,2% 12% ± 6% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,1% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,8% 1% ± 1%