Ontario

Historique récent | Spadina—Fort York


2018 2022 2025 Projection NPD 47% ± 10% 49,7% 46,1% 44,7% PLO 29% ± 9% 23,7% 28,0% 31,7% PC 20% ± 7% 21,7% 18,3% 20,3% PVO 2% ± 2% 3,7% 5,6% 2,7%

Infolettre Qc125

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Drapeau de l’Ontario

Projection Qc125 Spadina—Fort York

Mise à jour : 18 février 2026

Spadina—Fort York 37% 57% 47% ± 10% NPD 21% 38% 29% ± 9% PLO 14% 27% 20% ± 7% PC NPD 2025 44,68% Projection du vote | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle principalement proportionnel, ajusté à l'aide de sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des sondeurs professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Spadina—Fort York >99% NPD <1% PLO <1% PC Probabilités de victoire | 18 février 2026
Note méthodologique. Ces chances de victoire sont celles si une élection générale avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par le modèle avec des simulations de type Monte Carlo..


Projection du vote | Spadina—Fort York

PLO 29% ± 9% PC 20% ± 7% NPD 47% ± 10% Projection du vote % | Spadina—Fort York 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO PC NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 NPD 40% PLO 30% PC 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NPD 40% PLO 30% PC 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NPD 40% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NPD 40% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NPD 40% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NPD 39% PLO 31% PC 23% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NPD 39% PLO 31% PC 23% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NPD 39% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NPD 39% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NPD 39% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NPD 40% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NPD 39% PLO 30% PC 23% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NPD 38% PLO 31% PC 23% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NPD 37% PLO 31% PC 24% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NPD 38% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NPD 38% PLO 32% PC 23% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NPD 38% PLO 32% PC 23% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 23% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NPD 38% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NPD 38% PLO 32% PC 23% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NPD 38% PLO 32% PC 23% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NPD 38% PLO 32% PC 23% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NPD 37% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NPD 45% PLO 32% PC 20% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NPD 44% PLO 32% PC 21% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NPD 44% PLO 32% PC 21% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NPD 44% PLO 32% PC 21% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NPD 40% PLO 32% PC 24% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NPD 42% PLO 32% PC 23% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NPD 45% PLO 30% PC 22% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NPD 47% PLO 29% PC 21% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NPD 47% PLO 29% PC 21% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NPD 47% PLO 29% PC 20% 2026-02-18

Probabilités de victoire | Spadina—Fort York

PLO <1% NPD >99% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Élection 2025 PLO NPD 18 février 2026 2025-01-27 NPD 96% PLO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NPD 96% PLO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NPD 97% PLO 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NPD 97% PLO 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NPD 97% PLO 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NPD 93% PLO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NPD 93% PLO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NPD 93% PLO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NPD 94% PLO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NPD 94% PLO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NPD 97% PLO 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NPD 95% PLO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NPD 90% PLO 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NPD 85% PLO 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NPD 86% PLO 14% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NPD 85% PLO 15% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NPD 84% PLO 16% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NPD 85% PLO 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NPD 84% PLO 16% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NPD 83% PLO 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NPD 83% PLO 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NPD 84% PLO 16% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NPD 83% PLO 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NPD 86% PLO 14% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NPD 86% PLO 14% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NPD 86% PLO 14% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NPD 87% PLO 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NPD 83% PLO 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NPD 81% PLO 19% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NPD >99% PLO <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NPD 98% PLO 2% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NPD 98% PLO 2% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NPD 98% PLO 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NPD 92% PLO 8% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NPD 96% PLO 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NPD 99% PLO 1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NPD >99% PLO <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NPD >99% PLO <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NPD >99% PLO <1% 2026-02-18