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Ontario

University—Rosedale


Député(e) : Bell, Jessica (NPD)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
NPD enclin
University—Rosedale 33% ± 8% NPD 29% ± 8% PLO 18% ± 6% PPCO 18% ± 7% PVO NPD 2022 37,8% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% University—Rosedale 79% NPD 21% PLO <1% PVO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | University—Rosedale

PLO 29% ± 8% PPCO 18% ± 6% NPD 33% ± 8% PVO 18% ± 7% Projection du vote % | University—Rosedale 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 35% PLO 34% PPCO 20% PVO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 35% PLO 34% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 34% PLO 34% PPCO 19% PVO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 34% NPD 34% PPCO 20% PVO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 19% PVO 9% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 19% PVO 9% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 34% PLO 33% PPCO 19% PVO 9% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 34% PLO 33% PPCO 19% PVO 9% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 34% PLO 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 34% NPD 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 33% NPD 32% PPCO 20% PVO 9% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 32% NPD 31% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 33% PLO 31% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 33% PLO 31% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 33% PLO 31% PPCO 18% PVO 12% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 33% PLO 31% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 33% PLO 31% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 32% PLO 31% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 32% PLO 31% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 34% PLO 29% PPCO 19% PVO 12% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 33% PLO 29% PPCO 20% PVO 12% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 33% PLO 29% PPCO 20% PVO 12% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 33% PLO 29% PPCO 20% PVO 12% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 33% PLO 29% PPCO 20% PVO 12% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 33% PLO 29% PPCO 21% PVO 12% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD 38% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 16% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 38% PLO 27% PPCO 17% PVO 16% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 35% PLO 28% PVO 18% PPCO 17% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 35% PLO 29% PVO 18% PPCO 17% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 35% PLO 29% PVO 18% PPCO 17% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 36% PLO 28% PVO 18% PPCO 17% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 37% PLO 27% PVO 20% PPCO 14% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 37% PLO 27% PVO 19% PPCO 15% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 37% PLO 27% PVO 18% PPCO 15% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 37% PLO 28% PVO 18% PPCO 15% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 38% PLO 28% PVO 18% PPCO 14% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 38% PLO 27% PVO 18% PPCO 15% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 37% PLO 27% PVO 18% PPCO 16% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 37% PLO 29% PVO 18% PPCO 16% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 36% PLO 29% PVO 17% PPCO 16% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 34% PLO 33% PVO 17% PPCO 14% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 33% PLO 32% PVO 18% PPCO 16% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 34% PLO 31% PVO 17% PPCO 17% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 34% PLO 30% PVO 18% PPCO 17% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 34% PLO 29% PVO 18% PPCO 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 33% PLO 29% PPCO 18% PVO 18% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 33% PLO 29% PVO 18% PPCO 18% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 33% PLO 29% PPCO 18% PVO 18% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | University—Rosedale

PLO 21% PPCO <1% NPD 79% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 NPD 56% PLO 44% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NPD 58% PLO 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NPD 51% PLO 49% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 52% NPD 48% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NPD 69% PLO 31% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NPD 68% PLO 32% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NPD 68% PLO 32% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NPD 60% PLO 40% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NPD 55% PLO 45% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NPD 64% PLO 36% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NPD 62% PLO 38% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NPD 61% PLO 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NPD 61% PLO 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NPD 68% PLO 32% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NPD 64% PLO 36% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 61% NPD 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 63% NPD 37% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 60% NPD 40% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NPD 64% PLO 36% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NPD 65% PLO 35% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NPD 65% PLO 35% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NPD 63% PLO 37% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NPD 61% PLO 39% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NPD 60% PLO 40% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NPD 60% PLO 40% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NPD 85% PLO 15% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NPD 81% PLO 19% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NPD 80% PLO 20% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NPD 80% PLO 20% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NPD 80% PLO 20% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NPD 80% PLO 19% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NPD >99% PLO <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NPD 90% PLO 9% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NPD 88% PLO 12% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NPD 89% PLO 11% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NPD 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NPD 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NPD 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NPD 97% PLO 3% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NPD 96% PLO 4% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NPD 98% PLO 2% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NPD 94% PLO 6% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NPD 90% PLO 10% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NPD 58% PLO 42% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NPD 55% PLO 45% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NPD 75% PLO 25% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NPD 74% PLO 26% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NPD 84% PLO 16% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NPD 77% PLO 23% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NPD 79% PLO 21% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NPD 79% PLO 21% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | University—Rosedale



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NPD 24,3% 49,7% 37,8% 33% ± 8% PLO 48,1% 22,1% 27,2% 29% ± 8% PPCO 18,4% 21,1% 17,4% 18% ± 6% PVO 7,1% 5,4% 15,9% 18% ± 7% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,3% 1% ± 1%