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Ontario

Orléans


Député(e) : Blais, Stephen (PLO)

Dernière mise à jour : 9 octobre 2024
PLO probable
Orléans 46% ± 9% PLO 33% ± 8%▼ PPCO 12% ± 5% NPD 6% ± 4% PVO PLO 2022 46,4% Projection du vote | 9 octobre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Orléans 99%▲ PLO 1%▼ PPCO <1% NPD Probabilités de victoire | 9 octobre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Orléans

PLO 46% ± 9% PPCO 33% ± 8% NPD 12% ± 5% PVO 6% ± 4% Projection du vote % | Orléans 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 54% PPCO 31% NPD 10% PVO 1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 52% PPCO 29% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 51% PPCO 29% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 51% PPCO 29% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 49% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 49% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 50% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 47% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 48% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 48% PPCO 31% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 47% PPCO 31% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 46% PPCO 31% NPD 16% PVO 1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 46% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 46% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 46% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 46% PPCO 32% NPD 15% PVO 1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 45% PPCO 34% NPD 14% PVO 1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO 46% PPCO 33% NPD 14% PVO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 46% PPCO 32% NPD 14% PVO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 47% PPCO 32% NPD 13% PVO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 12% PVO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 12% PVO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO 47% PPCO 32% NPD 13% PVO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 47% PPCO 29% NPD 14% PVO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 48% PPCO 29% NPD 14% PVO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 47% PPCO 30% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 47% PPCO 30% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 49% PPCO 28% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 47% PPCO 30% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 46% PPCO 32% NPD 14% PVO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 48% PPCO 30% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 49% PPCO 30% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 52% PPCO 28% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 50% PPCO 30% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 48% PPCO 31% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 48% PPCO 32% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 46% PPCO 33% NPD 13% PVO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 46% PPCO 34% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 46% PPCO 33% NPD 12% PVO 6% 2024-10-09

Probabilités de victoire | Orléans

PLO 99% PPCO 1% NPD <1% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 9 octobre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO >99% PVO <1% NPD <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO >99% PPCO <1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 98% PPCO 2% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 99% PPCO 1% PVO <1% NPD <1% 2024-10-09

Historique récent | Orléans



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PLO 53,3% 39,1% 46,4% 46% ± 9% PPCO 33,4% 35,2% 32,7% 33% ± 8% NPD 9,0% 21,9% 13,6% 12% ± 5% PVO 3,5% 2,5% 4,6% 6% ± 4% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 1,5% 1% ± 1% PON 0,0% 0,0% 0,9% 1% ± 1%