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Ontario

Kingston and the Islands


Député(e) : Hsu, Ted (PLO)

Dernière mise à jour : 12 novembre 2024
PLO probable
Kingston and the Islands 38% ± 8% PLO 29% ± 7% NPD 26% ± 7%▲ PPCO 4% ± 3%▼ PVO PLO 2022 37,7% Projection du vote | 12 novembre 2024
Cette projection est calculée à l'aide d'un modèle essentiellement proportionnel, ajusté en fonction des sondages provinciaux et régionaux réalisés par des instituts de sondage professionnels. Il ne s'agit pas d'un sondage, mais d'une projection basée sur des sondages. Le modèle Qc125 tient également compte de l'historique électoral et d'autres données. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie de Qc125, cliquez ici.
50% 100% Kingston and the Islands 97% PLO 3% NPD <1% PPCO Probabilités de victoire | 12 novembre 2024
Les probabilités de victoire ci-dessus sont celles si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. Elles sont calculées par un programme de type Monte-Carlo qui effectue des milliers de simulations d'élections générales. Les circonscriptions sont ensuite étiquettées comme étant solide (probabilités de victoire supérieures à 99,5%), probable (entre 90% et 99,5%), enclin (entre 70% et 90%) ou pivot (probabilités inférieures à 70%).


Projection du vote | Kingston and the Islands

PLO 38% ± 8% PPCO 26% ± 7% NPD 29% ± 7% PVO 4% ± 3% Projection du vote % | Kingston and the Islands 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 36% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 35% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 34% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 34% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 34% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 35% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 35% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 35% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 36% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 34% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 35% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 35% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 34% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 34% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 34% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 34% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 34% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 33% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 33% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 8% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 33% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 33% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 32% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 32% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 32% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 32% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 32% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 32% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 8% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 32% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 8% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 32% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 32% NPD 28% PPCO 25% PVO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 32% NPD 28% PPCO 26% PVO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO 38% NPD 31% PPCO 25% PVO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 38% NPD 32% PPCO 24% PVO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 39% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 40% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 40% NPD 29% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO 39% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 38% NPD 32% PPCO 21% PVO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 39% NPD 32% PPCO 22% PVO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 39% NPD 31% PPCO 22% PVO 4% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 39% NPD 31% PPCO 22% PVO 4% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 40% NPD 32% PPCO 21% PVO 4% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 38% NPD 32% PPCO 22% PVO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 38% NPD 31% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 40% NPD 30% PPCO 23% PVO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 41% NPD 30% PPCO 23% PVO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO 43% NPD 29% PPCO 21% PVO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO 42% NPD 28% PPCO 23% PVO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 39% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 39% NPD 30% PPCO 24% PVO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 38% NPD 30% PPCO 25% PVO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 38% NPD 29% PPCO 26% PVO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 38% NPD 29% PPCO 25% PVO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 38% NPD 29% PPCO 26% PVO 4% 2024-11-11

Probabilités de victoire | Kingston and the Islands

PLO 97% PPCO <1% NPD 3% PVO <1% Probabilité de victoire 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Élection 2022 PLO PPCO NPD PVO 12 novembre 2024 2022-04-30 PLO 92% NPD 8% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PLO 83% NPD 17% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PLO 79% NPD 20% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PLO 81% NPD 18% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PLO 81% NPD 18% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PLO 81% NPD 19% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PLO 82% NPD 18% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PLO 87% NPD 12% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PLO 89% NPD 11% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PLO 82% NPD 17% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PLO 84% NPD 15% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PLO 84% NPD 15% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PLO 84% NPD 15% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PLO 81% NPD 17% PPCO 2% PVO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PLO 79% NPD 20% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PLO 89% NPD 10% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PLO 88% NPD 11% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PLO 85% NPD 13% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PLO 80% NPD 19% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PLO 80% NPD 19% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PLO 80% NPD 19% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PLO 71% NPD 28% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PLO 73% NPD 26% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PLO 74% NPD 25% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PLO 74% NPD 25% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PLO 73% NPD 26% PPCO 1% PVO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PLO 77% NPD 20% PPCO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PLO 78% NPD 19% PPCO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PLO 78% NPD 19% PPCO 3% PVO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PLO 76% NPD 20% PPCO 4% PVO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PLO 77% NPD 18% PPCO 5% PVO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PLO 87% NPD 13% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PLO 98% NPD 2% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PLO 99% NPD 1% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PLO 96% NPD 4% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PLO 91% NPD 9% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PLO 92% NPD 8% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PLO 93% NPD 7% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PLO 94% NPD 6% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PLO 95% NPD 5% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PLO 91% NPD 9% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PLO 89% NPD 11% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PLO 99% NPD 1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PLO >99% NPD <1% PVO <1% PPCO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PLO 94% NPD 6% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PLO 97% NPD 3% PPCO <1% PVO <1% 2024-11-11

Historique récent | Kingston and the Islands



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PLO 42,1% 27,5% 37,7% 38% ± 8% NPD 29,4% 39,3% 31,2% 29% ± 7% PPCO 20,8% 26,0% 24,6% 26% ± 7% PVO 7,2% 6,5% 3,3% 4% ± 3% PON 0,0% 0,0% 1,7% 1% ± 1% PNBO 0,0% 0,0% 0,9% 1% ± 1%