Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 23 avril 2025
| Chef | Mark Carney |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 42,8 % ± 4,6 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 188 [151-222] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 23 avril 2025
Projection de sièges | 23 avril 2025
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Acadie—Bathurst |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Scarborough-Nord |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Winnipeg-Nord |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Humber River—Black Creek | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Beaches—East York | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Cape Spear |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Hull—Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Orléans | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Vancouver Quadra |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Vimy | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Ajax | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Halifax-Ouest |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Waterloo | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Papineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Laval—Les Îles | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Halifax | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | Guelph | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | Davenport | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Outremont | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Vaudreuil | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Sherbrooke | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | Compton—Stanstead | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | London-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Brome—Missisquoi | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Surrey Newton | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Sudbury | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Nepean | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 91. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 92. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 93. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 94. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 95. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 96. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 97. | Avalon | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 98. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |  |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 99. | St. Catharines | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 100. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 101. | Cardigan |  |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 102. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 103. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 104. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | |
 |
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 105. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 106. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 107. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 108. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 109. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 110. | Willowdale | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 111. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 112. | Charlottetown | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 113. | Egmont | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 114. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 115. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
 |
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 116. | Kanata | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 117. | London-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 118. | Whitby | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 119. | Cambridge | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 120. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 121. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 122. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 123. | Labrador | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 124. | Québec-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 125. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 126. | Burlington | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 127. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 128. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 129. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 130. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 131. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 132. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 133. | Yukon |  |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 134. | Malpeque | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 135. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 136. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 137. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 138. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 139. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 140. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 141. | Shefford | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 142. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 143. | Calgary McKnight |  |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 144. | Rivière-des-Milles-Îles | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 145. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 146. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 147. | Delta | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 148. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 149. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 150. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
 |
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 151. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | |
|
PLC enclin | 84 % |
| 152. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | |
|
PLC enclin | 82 % |
| 153. | Victoria | |
|
PLC enclin | 81 % |
| 154. | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie | |
|
PLC enclin | 81 % |
| 155. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 156. | Burnaby Central | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 157. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 158. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 159. | Edmonton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 160. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 161. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PLC enclin | 74 % |
| 162. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
PLC enclin | 74 % |
| 163. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 73 % |
| 164. | Thérèse-De Blainville | |
|
PLC enclin | 72 % |
| 165. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 72 % |
| 166. | York-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 70 % |
| 167. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 168. | Peterborough | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 169. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 64 % |
| 170. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 64 % |
| 171. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 63 % |
| 172. | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 62 % |
| 173. | Nunavut |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 62 % |
| 174. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 62 % |
| 175. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 176. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 177. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 178. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 58 % |
| 179. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 58 % |
| 180. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 181. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 182. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 183. | La Prairie—Atateken | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 55 % |
| 184. | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 55 % |
| 185. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 186. | Trois-Rivières | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 51 % |
| 187. | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 51 % |
| 188. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 189. | Kelowna | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 190. | Winnipeg-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 49 % |
| 191. | Windsor-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 49 % |
| 192. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 193. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 194. | Central Newfoundland | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
| 195. | Vancouver Kingsway | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 46 % |
| 196. | Hamilton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 45 % |
| 197. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 45 % |
| 198. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 199. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 200. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 201. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 202. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 203. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 204. | Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 205. | Terrebonne | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 30 % |
| 206. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC enclin | 29 % |
| 207. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PCC enclin | 29 % |
| 208. | Les Pays-d’en-Haut | |
|
BQ enclin | 27 % |
| 209. | Repentigny | |
|
BQ enclin | 26 % |
| 210. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC enclin | 25 % |
| 211. | Vancouver-Est | |
|
NPD enclin | 25 % |
| 212. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 25 % |
| 213. | Saint-Jean | |
|
BQ enclin | 23 % |
| 214. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 215. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
PCC enclin | 21 % |
| 216. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 19 % |
| 217. | King—Vaughan | |
|
PCC enclin | 19 % |
| 218. | Acadie—Annapolis | |
|
PCC enclin | 19 % |
| 219. | Kitchener-Centre | |
 |
PVC enclin | 18 % |
| 220. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC enclin | 16 % |
| 221. | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères | |
|
BQ enclin | 16 % |
| 222. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 15 % |
| 223. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | |
|
BQ enclin | 15 % |
| 224. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 15 % |
| 225. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 226. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 227. | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton | |
|
BQ enclin | 11 % |
| 228. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 11 % |
| 229. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC enclin | 11 % |
| 230. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 10 % |
| 231. | Oshawa | |
|
PCC probable | 10 % |
| 232. | Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon | |
|
BQ probable | 9 % |
| 233. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 234. | Carleton | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 235. | Berthier—Maskinongé | |
|
BQ enclin | 8 % |
| 236. | Laurentides—Labelle | |
|
BQ probable | 7 % |
| 237. | New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 238. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 239. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 240. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 241. | Calgary-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 242. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 243. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 244. | Barrie-Sud—Innisfil | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 245. | Saskatoon-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 246. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 247. | Rimouski—La Matapédia | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 248. | Mirabel | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 249. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 250. | Chilliwack—Hope | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 251. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 252. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 253. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 254. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 255. | Rivière-du-Nord | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 256. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 257. | Beloeil—Chambly | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 258. | Dufferin—Caledon | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 259. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
PCC enclin | 2 % |
| 260. | Thornhill | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 261. | Abitibi—Témiscamingue | |
|
BQ probable | 1 % |
| 262. | Jonquière | |
|
Pivot PCC/BQ | 1 % |
| 263. | Provencher | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 264. | Tobique—Mactaquac | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |