Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 6 juillet 2025
| Chef | Mark Carney |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2025 | 43.8% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 45,2 % ± 4,6 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 169 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 185 [145-230] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2025.
Projection du vote | 6 juillet 2025
Projection de sièges | 6 juillet 2025
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2025 | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Lac-Saint-Louis |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Cape Spear |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Acadie—Bathurst |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Orléans |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Beaches—East York | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Charlottetown |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Hull—Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Nepean | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Halifax | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | Scarborough-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Vancouver Quadra |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Vaudreuil | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Kanata | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | Waterloo | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | Outremont | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Vimy | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Davenport | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | London-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | Papineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Guelph | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | Sherbrooke | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Laval—Les Îles | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | Victoria | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Brome—Missisquoi | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | Compton—Stanstead | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | Avalon | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Winnipeg-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Thérèse-De Blainville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Trois-Rivières | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Malpeque | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | Rivière-des-Milles-Îles | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 91. | Québec-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 92. | London-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 93. | Cardigan | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 94. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 95. | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 96. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 97. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 98. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 99. | Humber River—Black Creek | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 100. | Ajax | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 101. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 102. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 103. | La Prairie—Atateken | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 104. | Burlington | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 105. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 106. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 107. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 108. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 109. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 110. | Peterborough | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 111. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 112. | Edmonton-Centre |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 113. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 114. | Sudbury | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 115. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 116. | St. Catharines | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 117. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 118. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 119. | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 120. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 121. | Yukon |  |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 122. | Les Pays-d’en-Haut | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 123. | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 124. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 125. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 126. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 127. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 128. | Egmont | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 129. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 130. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 131. | Whitby | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 132. | Willowdale | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 133. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 134. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 135. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 136. | Labrador | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 137. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 138. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 139. | Delta | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 140. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 141. | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 142. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 143. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 144. | Carleton | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 145. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 146. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PLC enclin | 84 % |
| 147. | Terrebonne | |
|
PLC enclin | 82 % |
| 148. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 149. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
 |
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 150. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 151. | Shefford | |
 |
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 152. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 153. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 154. | Acadie—Annapolis | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 155. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 156. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 157. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PLC enclin | 74 % |
| 158. | Surrey Newton | |
|
PLC enclin | 74 % |
| 159. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 73 % |
| 160. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PLC enclin | 73 % |
| 161. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
PLC enclin | 72 % |
| 162. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 71 % |
| 163. | Hamilton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 71 % |
| 164. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PLC enclin | 71 % |
| 165. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 166. | Burnaby Central | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 167. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 168. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 169. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 170. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 171. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 172. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 65 % |
| 173. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 64 % |
| 174. | Repentigny | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 63 % |
| 175. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 63 % |
| 176. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 177. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 178. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 179. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 180. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 58 % |
| 181. | Kelowna | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 182. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 55 % |
| 183. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 184. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 185. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 49 % |
| 186. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 187. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 48 % |
| 188. | Cambridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 189. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 190. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 45 % |
| 191. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 192. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 193. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 194. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 195. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 196. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 197. | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 39 % |
| 198. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 199. | Mirabel | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 38 % |
| 200. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 38 % |
| 201. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 202. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 203. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 204. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 36 % |
| 205. | Nunavut |  |
 |
Pivot PLC/NPD | 34 % |
| 206. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 207. | Central Newfoundland | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 208. | Vancouver Kingsway | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 31 % |
| 209. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 31 % |
| 210. | Oshawa | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 211. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 212. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
PCC enclin | 29 % |
| 213. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 27 % |
| 214. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC enclin | 24 % |
| 215. | Winnipeg-Centre | |
|
NPD enclin | 24 % |
| 216. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 217. | Laurentides—Labelle | |
|
BQ enclin | 23 % |
| 218. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 219. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 220. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
PCC enclin | 22 % |
| 221. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC enclin | 22 % |
| 222. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC enclin | 22 % |
| 223. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC enclin | 21 % |
| 224. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 21 % |
| 225. | Saint-Jean | |
|
BQ enclin | 19 % |
| 226. | Rimouski—La Matapédia | |
|
BQ enclin | 19 % |
| 227. | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton | |
|
BQ enclin | 19 % |
| 228. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 229. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 17 % |
| 230. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 17 % |
| 231. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC enclin | 17 % |
| 232. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 15 % |
| 233. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 234. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 235. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 236. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 237. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 238. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 11 % |
| 239. | Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon | |
|
BQ enclin | 11 % |
| 240. | Rivière-du-Nord | |
|
BQ probable | 10 % |
| 241. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC probable | 10 % |
| 242. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC probable | 10 % |
| 243. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 244. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 245. | Windsor-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 8 % |
| 246. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 247. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 248. | Huron—Bruce | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 249. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 250. | Berthier—Maskinongé | |
|
BQ probable | 7 % |
| 251. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 252. | Beloeil—Chambly | |
|
BQ probable | 6 % |
| 253. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 254. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
 |
PVC probable | 6 % |
| 255. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 256. | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | |
|
NPD probable | 5 % |
| 257. | Kitchener-Centre | |
|
Pivot PCC/PVC | 5 % |
| 258. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 259. | Vancouver-Est | |
|
NPD probable | 5 % |
| 260. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 261. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
PCC enclin | 5 % |
| 262. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 263. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 264. | Drummond | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 265. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 266. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ probable | 3 % |
| 267. | Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan | |
|
BQ probable | 3 % |
| 268. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 269. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 270. | Oxford | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 271. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 272. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 273. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 274. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 275. | Joliette—Manawan | |
|
BQ probable | 1 % |
| 276. | Tobique—Mactaquac | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 277. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 278. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |