Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 19 janvier 2025
| Chef | Justin Trudeau |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 21,4 % ± 3,6 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 41 [21-68] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 19 janvier 2025
Projection de sièges | 19 janvier 2025
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Hull—Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Acadie—Bathurst |  |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 5. | Scarborough-Nord |  |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 6. | Winnipeg-Nord |  |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 7. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 8. | Beaches—East York | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 9. | Humber River—Black Creek | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 10. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 11. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 12. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 13. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 14. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 15. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 16. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 17. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 18. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 19. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 20. | Vimy | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 21. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 22. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 23. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 24. | Surrey Newton |  |
|
PLC enclin | 84 % |
| 25. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC enclin | 79 % |
| 26. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC enclin | 79 % |
| 27. | Papineau | |
|
PLC enclin | 79 % |
| 28. | Cape Spear |  |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 29. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 30. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC enclin | 70 % |
| 31. | Mont-Royal | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 70 % |
| 32. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 33. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 34. | Ajax | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 35. | Outremont | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 63 % |
| 36. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 37. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 38. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 53 % |
| 39. | Vaudreuil | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 50 % |
| 40. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 41. | St. John’s Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 48 % |
| 42. | Laval—Les Îles | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 43. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 44. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 45. | Orléans | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 46. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 47. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 48. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 43 % |
| 49. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 42 % |
| 50. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 51. | Brampton-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 52. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 53. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 39 % |
| 54. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
| 55. | Halifax | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 33 % |
| 56. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 57. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 32 % |
| 58. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
PCC enclin | 26 % |
| 59. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
PCC enclin | 25 % |
| 60. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
BQ enclin | 24 % |
| 61. | Davenport | |
|
NPD enclin | 23 % |
| 62. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 23 % |
| 63. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 20 % |
| 64. | Guelph | |
|
PCC enclin | 20 % |
| 65. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 19 % |
| 66. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 67. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | |
|
NPD enclin | 16 % |
| 68. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
PCC enclin | 16 % |
| 69. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 70. | Waterloo | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 71. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | |
|
NPD enclin | 11 % |
| 72. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD/BQ | 11 % |
| 73. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
PCC enclin | 11 % |
| 74. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 75. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 76. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
PCC probable | 10 % |
| 77. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 9 % |
| 78. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
BQ enclin | 8 % |
| 79. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 80. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 81. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 82. | Calgary McKnight |  |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 83. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
PCC enclin | 6 % |
| 84. | Cardigan |  |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 85. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 86. | Yukon |  |
|
PCC enclin | 4 % |
| 87. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 88. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 89. | Sherbrooke | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 90. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 91. | Labrador | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 92. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 93. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 94. | Charlottetown | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 95. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 96. | Egmont | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 97. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 98. | Québec-Centre | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 99. | Avalon | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 100. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 2 % |
| 101. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 102. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
BQ probable | 1 % |
| 103. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 104. | Nepean | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | PLC solide |
| 2. | Hull—Aylmer | PLC solide |
| 3. | Bourassa | PLC solide |
| 4. | Acadie—Bathurst | PLC probable |
| 5. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC probable |
| 6. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC probable |
| 7. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC probable |
| 8. | Beaches—East York | PLC probable |
| 9. | Humber River—Black Creek | PLC probable |
| 10. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | PLC probable |
| 11. | Saint-Laurent | PLC probable |
| 12. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | PLC probable |
| 13. | Toronto-Centre | PLC probable |
| 14. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 15. | Beauséjour | PLC probable |
| 16. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | PLC probable |
| 17. | Scarborough—Woburn | PLC enclin |
| 18. | Gatineau | PLC enclin |
| 19. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | PLC enclin |
| 20. | Vimy | PLC enclin |
| 21. | Markham—Thornhill | PLC enclin |
| 22. | University—Rosedale | PLC enclin |
| 23. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | PLC enclin |
| 24. | Surrey Newton | PLC enclin |
| 25. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | PLC enclin |
| 26. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC enclin |
| 27. | Papineau | PLC enclin |
| 28. | Cape Spear | PLC enclin |
| 29. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | PLC enclin |
| 30. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC enclin |
| 31. | Mont-Royal | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 32. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 33. | Etobicoke-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 34. | Ajax | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 35. | Outremont | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 36. | Brampton-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 37. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 38. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 39. | Vaudreuil | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 40. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 41. | St. John’s Est | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 42. | Laval—Les Îles | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 43. | Moncton—Dieppe | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 44. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 45. | Orléans | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 46. | Halifax-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 47. | Ottawa-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 48. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 49. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 50. | Mississauga-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 51. | Brampton-Est | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 52. | Brampton-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 53. | Ottawa-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 54. | Winnipeg-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 55. | Halifax | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 56. | Surrey-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 57. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 58. | Scarborough—Agincourt | PCC enclin |
| 59. | Mississauga—Malton | PCC enclin |
| 60. | Alfred-Pellan | BQ enclin |
| 61. | Davenport | NPD enclin |
| 62. | Toronto—Danforth | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 63. | Don Valley-Ouest | PCC enclin |
| 64. | Guelph | PCC enclin |
| 65. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | PCC enclin |
| 66. | Vancouver-Centre | PCC enclin |
| 67. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | NPD enclin |
| 68. | Madawaska—Restigouche | PCC enclin |
| 69. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | PCC enclin |
| 70. | Waterloo | PCC enclin |
| 71. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | NPD enclin |
| 72. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | Pivot PLC/NPD/BQ |
| 73. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | PCC enclin |
| 74. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | PCC enclin |
| 75. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | PCC enclin |
| 76. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | PCC probable |
| 77. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | PCC enclin |
| 78. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | BQ enclin |
| 79. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | PCC probable |
| 80. | Brampton-Centre | PCC probable |
| 81. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | PCC probable |
| 82. | Calgary McKnight | PCC probable |
| 83. | Kingston and the Islands | PCC enclin |
| 84. | Cardigan | PCC probable |
| 85. | Markham—Stouffville | PCC probable |
| 86. | Yukon | PCC enclin |
| 87. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | PCC probable |
| 88. | Don Valley-Nord | PCC probable |
| 89. | Sherbrooke | BQ probable |
| 90. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | BQ probable |
| 91. | Labrador | PCC probable |
| 92. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | PCC probable |
| 93. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | PCC probable |
| 94. | Charlottetown | PCC probable |
| 95. | Pickering—Brooklin | PCC probable |
| 96. | Egmont | PCC probable |
| 97. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | BQ probable |
| 98. | Québec-Centre | BQ probable |
| 99. | Avalon | PCC probable |
| 100. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 101. | Mississauga—Streetsville | PCC probable |
| 102. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | BQ probable |
| 103. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | PCC probable |
| 104. | Nepean | PCC probable |