Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 14 avril 2024
Chef | Justin Trudeau |
Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
Projection de vote actuelle | 25,5 % ± 3,0 % |
Nombre actuel de députés-es | 158 |
Projection de sièges actuelle | 72 [51-97] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Projection du vote | 14 avril 2024
Projection de sièges | 14 avril 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
Rang | Circonscription | Province | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
2. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
5. | Markham–Thornhill | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
6. | Bourassa | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
7. | Scarborough–Guildwood | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
8. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
9. | Saint-Laurent | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
10. | Humber River–Black Creek | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
12. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
13. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
15. | Beaches–East York | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
16. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
17. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
18. | Hull–Aylmer | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
19. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
20. | Surrey–Newton | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
21. | Laval–Les Îles | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
22. | Vimy | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
23. | Mont-Royal | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
24. | York-Sud–Weston | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
25. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
26. | Gatineau | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
27. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
28. | Papineau | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
29. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
30. | St. John’s-Sud–Mount Pearl | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
31. | Don Valley-Est | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
32. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | PLC solide | > 99 % | ||
33. | Beauséjour | PLC probable | 99 % | ||
34. | Alfred-Pellan | PLC probable | 99 % | ||
35. | Toronto-Centre | PLC probable | 99 % | ||
36. | Etobicoke-Nord | PLC probable | 98 % | ||
37. | Scarborough-Centre | PLC probable | 97 % | ||
38. | University–Rosedale | PLC probable | 97 % | ||
39. | Halifax-Ouest | PLC probable | 95 % | ||
40. | Vancouver-Sud | PLC probable | 94 % | ||
41. | Ajax | PLC probable | 94 % | ||
42. | Surrey-Centre | PLC probable | 93 % | ||
43. | Ottawa–Vanier | PLC probable | 92 % | ||
44. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC probable | 92 % | ||
45. | Outremont | PLC probable | 92 % | ||
46. | Pontiac | PLC enclin | 89 % | ||
47. | Saint-Boniface–Saint-Vital | PLC enclin | 88 % | ||
48. | Mississauga-Centre | PLC enclin | 85 % | ||
49. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | PLC enclin | 84 % | ||
50. | Madawaska–Restigouche | PLC enclin | 83 % | ||
51. | Ottawa-Centre | PLC enclin | 83 % | ||
52. | Brampton-Est | PLC enclin | 83 % | ||
53. | Brampton-Ouest | PLC enclin | 81 % | ||
54. | Winnipeg-Sud | PLC enclin | 80 % | ||
55. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | PLC enclin | 79 % | ||
56. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | PLC enclin | 78 % | ||
57. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | PLC enclin | 76 % | ||
58. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | PLC enclin | 76 % | ||
59. | Hochelaga | PLC enclin | 75 % | ||
60. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | PLC enclin | 71 % | ||
61. | Scarborough–Agincourt | PLC enclin | 70 % | ||
62. | Vancouver-Centre | PLC enclin | 70 % | ||
63. | St. John’s-Est | Pivot PLC/NPD | 68 % | ||
64. | Don Valley-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC | 64 % | ||
65. | Mississauga–Malton | Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % | ||
66. | Brampton-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % | ||
67. | Cardigan | Pivot PLC/PCC | 55 % | ||
68. | Spadina–Fort York | Pivot PLC/NPD | 55 % | ||
69. | Halifax | Pivot PLC/NPD | 52 % | ||
70. | Brampton-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % | ||
71. | Toronto–Danforth | Pivot PLC/NPD | 51 % | ||
72. | Ottawa-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % | ||
73. | Parkdale–High Park | Pivot PLC/NPD | 46 % | ||
74. | Sherbrooke | Pivot PLC/BQ | 46 % | ||
75. | Davenport | Pivot PLC/NPD | 41 % | ||
76. | Québec | Pivot PLC/BQ | 40 % | ||
77. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % | ||
78. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | Pivot PLC/NPD | 38 % | ||
79. | Milton | Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % | ||
80. | Orléans | Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % | ||
81. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Pivot PLC/BQ | 34 % | ||
82. | Vancouver Quadra | Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % | ||
83. | Charlottetown | Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % | ||
84. | Egmont | PCC enclin (gain) | 29 % | ||
85. | North Vancouver | PCC enclin (gain) | 28 % | ||
86. | Mississauga-Est–Cooksville | PCC enclin (gain) | 28 % | ||
87. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Pivot PLC/PCC | 27 % | ||
88. | Kingston et les Îles | Pivot PLC/PCC | 27 % | ||
89. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | BQ enclin (gain) | 27 % | ||
90. | Yukon | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 26 % | ||
91. | Louis-Hébert | Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 24 % | ||
92. | Kings–Hants | PCC enclin (gain) | 23 % | ||
93. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | PCC enclin (gain) | 21 % | ||
94. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | PCC enclin (gain) | 21 % | ||
95. | Labrador | PCC enclin (gain) | 19 % | ||
96. | Guelph | PCC enclin (gain) | 17 % | ||
97. | Brampton-Centre | PCC enclin (gain) | 16 % | ||
98. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | BQ enclin (gain) | 15 % | ||
99. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | PCC enclin (gain) | 15 % | ||
100. | Compton–Stanstead | BQ enclin (gain) | 15 % | ||
101. | Willowdale | PCC enclin (gain) | 14 % | ||
102. | Saint John–Rothesay | PCC enclin (gain) | 13 % | ||
103. | Don Valley-Ouest | PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % | ||
104. | Vancouver Granville | PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % | ||
105. | Nova-Centre | PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % | ||
106. | Avalon | PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % | ||
107. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | PCC enclin (gain) | 11 % | ||
108. | Markham–Stouffville | PCC enclin (gain) | 11 % | ||
109. | Waterloo | PCC enclin (gain) | 11 % | ||
110. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | PCC enclin (gain) | 11 % | ||
111. | Mississauga–Streetsville | PCC probable (gain) | 10 % | ||
112. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | PCC probable (gain) | 9 % | ||
113. | Cape Breton–Canso | PCC probable (gain) | 8 % | ||
114. | Delta | PCC probable (gain) | 8 % | ||
115. | Malpeque | PCC probable (gain) | 8 % | ||
116. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | PCC probable (gain) | 7 % | ||
117. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ probable (gain) | 7 % | ||
118. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | PCC probable (gain) | 6 % | ||
119. | Calgary Skyview | PCC probable (gain) | 5 % | ||
120. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ probable (gain) | 5 % | ||
121. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | PCC probable (gain) | 5 % | ||
122. | Etobicoke-Centre | PCC probable (gain) | 4 % | ||
123. | Eglinton–Lawrence | PCC probable (gain) | 4 % | ||
124. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | PCC probable (gain) | 4 % | ||
125. | Nepean | PCC probable (gain) | 4 % | ||
126. | London-Centre-Nord | PCC probable (gain) | 4 % | ||
127. | Pickering–Uxbridge | PCC probable (gain) | 3 % | ||
128. | York-Centre | PCC probable (gain) | 2 % | ||
129. | Hamilton Mountain | PCC enclin (gain) | 2 % | ||
130. | Whitby | PCC probable (gain) | 2 % | ||
131. | Richmond Hill | PCC probable (gain) | 1 % | ||
132. | Edmonton-Centre | PCC enclin (gain) | 1 % | ||
133. | Burlington | PCC probable (gain) | 1 % | ||
134. | Oakville-Nord–Burlington | PCC probable (gain) | 1 % | ||
135. | Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek | PCC probable (gain) | 1 % | ||
136. | Nickel Belt | PCC probable (gain) | 1 % |
Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | PLC solide |
2. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC solide |
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | PLC solide |
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | PLC solide |
5. | Markham–Thornhill | PLC solide |
6. | Bourassa | PLC solide |
7. | Scarborough–Guildwood | PLC solide |
8. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC solide |
9. | Saint-Laurent | PLC solide |
10. | Humber River–Black Creek | PLC solide |
11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | PLC solide |
12. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC solide |
13. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC solide |
14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | PLC solide |
15. | Beaches–East York | PLC solide |
16. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | PLC solide |
17. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | PLC solide |
18. | Hull–Aylmer | PLC solide |
19. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | PLC solide |
20. | Surrey–Newton | PLC solide |
21. | Laval–Les Îles | PLC solide |
22. | Vimy | PLC solide |
23. | Mont-Royal | PLC solide |
24. | York-Sud–Weston | PLC solide |
25. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | PLC solide |
26. | Gatineau | PLC solide |
27. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC solide |
28. | Papineau | PLC solide |
29. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | PLC solide |
30. | St. John’s-Sud–Mount Pearl | PLC solide |
31. | Don Valley-Est | PLC solide |
32. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | PLC solide |
33. | Beauséjour | PLC probable |
34. | Alfred-Pellan | PLC probable |
35. | Toronto-Centre | PLC probable |
36. | Etobicoke-Nord | PLC probable |
37. | Scarborough-Centre | PLC probable |
38. | University–Rosedale | PLC probable |
39. | Halifax-Ouest | PLC probable |
40. | Vancouver-Sud | PLC probable |
41. | Ajax | PLC probable |
42. | Surrey-Centre | PLC probable |
43. | Ottawa–Vanier | PLC probable |
44. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC probable |
45. | Outremont | PLC probable |
46. | Pontiac | PLC enclin |
47. | Saint-Boniface–Saint-Vital | PLC enclin |
48. | Mississauga-Centre | PLC enclin |
49. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | PLC enclin |
50. | Madawaska–Restigouche | PLC enclin |
51. | Ottawa-Centre | PLC enclin |
52. | Brampton-Est | PLC enclin |
53. | Brampton-Ouest | PLC enclin |
54. | Winnipeg-Sud | PLC enclin |
55. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | PLC enclin |
56. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | PLC enclin |
57. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | PLC enclin |
58. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | PLC enclin |
59. | Hochelaga | PLC enclin |
60. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | PLC enclin |
61. | Scarborough–Agincourt | PLC enclin |
62. | Vancouver-Centre | PLC enclin |
63. | St. John’s-Est | Pivot PLC/NPD |
64. | Don Valley-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC |
65. | Mississauga–Malton | Pivot PLC/PCC |
66. | Brampton-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC |
67. | Cardigan | Pivot PLC/PCC |
68. | Spadina–Fort York | Pivot PLC/NPD |
69. | Halifax | Pivot PLC/NPD |
70. | Brampton-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
71. | Toronto–Danforth | Pivot PLC/NPD |
72. | Ottawa-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
73. | Parkdale–High Park | Pivot PLC/NPD |
74. | Sherbrooke | Pivot PLC/BQ |
75. | Davenport | Pivot PLC/NPD |
76. | Québec | Pivot PLC/BQ |
77. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | Pivot PLC/PCC |
78. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | Pivot PLC/NPD |
79. | Milton | Pivot PLC/PCC |
80. | Orléans | Pivot PLC/PCC |
81. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Pivot PLC/BQ |
82. | Vancouver Quadra | Pivot PLC/PCC |
83. | Charlottetown | Pivot PLC/PCC |
84. | Egmont | PCC enclin (gain) |
85. | North Vancouver | PCC enclin (gain) |
86. | Mississauga-Est–Cooksville | PCC enclin (gain) |
87. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Pivot PLC/PCC |
88. | Kingston et les Îles | Pivot PLC/PCC |
89. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | BQ enclin (gain) |
90. | Yukon | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
91. | Louis-Hébert | Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ |
92. | Kings–Hants | PCC enclin (gain) |
93. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | PCC enclin (gain) |
94. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | PCC enclin (gain) |
95. | Labrador | PCC enclin (gain) |
96. | Guelph | PCC enclin (gain) |
97. | Brampton-Centre | PCC enclin (gain) |
98. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | BQ enclin (gain) |
99. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | PCC enclin (gain) |
100. | Compton–Stanstead | BQ enclin (gain) |
101. | Willowdale | PCC enclin (gain) |
102. | Saint John–Rothesay | PCC enclin (gain) |
103. | Don Valley-Ouest | PCC enclin (gain) |
104. | Vancouver Granville | PCC enclin (gain) |
105. | Nova-Centre | PCC enclin (gain) |
106. | Avalon | PCC enclin (gain) |
107. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | PCC enclin (gain) |
108. | Markham–Stouffville | PCC enclin (gain) |
109. | Waterloo | PCC enclin (gain) |
110. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | PCC enclin (gain) |
111. | Mississauga–Streetsville | PCC probable (gain) |
112. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | PCC probable (gain) |
113. | Cape Breton–Canso | PCC probable (gain) |
114. | Delta | PCC probable (gain) |
115. | Malpeque | PCC probable (gain) |
116. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | PCC probable (gain) |
117. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ probable (gain) |
118. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | PCC probable (gain) |
119. | Calgary Skyview | PCC probable (gain) |
120. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ probable (gain) |
121. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | PCC probable (gain) |
122. | Etobicoke-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
123. | Eglinton–Lawrence | PCC probable (gain) |
124. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | PCC probable (gain) |
125. | Nepean | PCC probable (gain) |
126. | London-Centre-Nord | PCC probable (gain) |
127. | Pickering–Uxbridge | PCC probable (gain) |
128. | York-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
129. | Hamilton Mountain | PCC enclin (gain) |
130. | Whitby | PCC probable (gain) |
131. | Richmond Hill | PCC probable (gain) |
132. | Edmonton-Centre | PCC enclin (gain) |
133. | Burlington | PCC probable (gain) |
134. | Oakville-Nord–Burlington | PCC probable (gain) |
135. | Hamilton-Est–Stoney Creek | PCC probable (gain) |
136. | Nickel Belt | PCC probable (gain) |