Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 3 décembre 2023
| Chef | Justin Trudeau |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 24,8 % ± 3,2 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 158 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 63 [43-86] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Projection du vote | 3 décembre 2023
Projection de sièges | 3 décembre 2023
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Scarborough-Nord |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Acadie–Bathurst |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Markham–Thornhill | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Scarborough–Guildwood | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Hull–Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Humber River–Black Creek | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Vimy | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Laval–Les Îles | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | York-Sud–Weston | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 28. | Papineau | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 29. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 30. | Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 31. | Beaches–East York | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 32. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 33. | Surrey–Newton |  |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 34. | St. John’s-Sud–Mount Pearl |  |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 35. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 36. | Pontiac | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 37. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 38. | Scarborough-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 39. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | |
|
PLC probable | 90 % |
| 40. | Vancouver-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 41. | Saint-Boniface–Saint-Vital | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 42. | Ajax | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 43. | Hochelaga | |
|
PLC enclin | 82 % |
| 44. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 82 % |
| 45. | Halifax-Ouest |  |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 46. | Winnipeg-Nord | |
|
PLC enclin | 79 % |
| 47. | Outremont | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 48. | Sherbrooke | |
|
PLC enclin | 72 % |
| 49. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 72 % |
| 50. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 69 % |
| 51. | Brampton-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 52. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 53. | Madawaska–Restigouche | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 54. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 55. | Ottawa–Vanier | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 64 % |
| 56. | University–Rosedale | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 64 % |
| 57. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 64 % |
| 58. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 63 % |
| 59. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 60. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 59 % |
| 61. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 55 % |
| 62. | Scarborough–Agincourt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 63. | Québec | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 52 % |
| 64. | Don Valley-Nord | |
 |
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 65. | Mississauga–Malton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 66. | Brampton-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 67. | Cardigan |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 68. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 38 % |
| 69. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
| 70. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % |
| 71. | Compton–Stanstead | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 35 % |
| 72. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 35 % |
| 73. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 28 % |
| 74. | North Vancouver | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 26 % |
| 75. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 23 % |
| 76. | Milton | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 23 % |
| 77. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | |
|
BQ enclin (gain) | 23 % |
| 78. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 23 % |
| 79. | Charlottetown | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 20 % |
| 80. | St. John’s-Est | |
|
NPD enclin (gain) | 19 % |
| 81. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 19 % |
| 82. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 19 % |
| 83. | Egmont | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 19 % |
| 84. | Brome–Missisquoi | |
|
BQ enclin (gain) | 19 % |
| 85. | Mississauga-Est–Cooksville | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 16 % |
| 86. | Orléans | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 15 % |
| 87. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 14 % |
| 88. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
NPD enclin (gain) | 13 % |
| 89. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % |
| 90. | Kings–Hants | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % |
| 91. | Labrador | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 11 % |
| 92. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 11 % |
| 93. | Halifax | |
|
NPD enclin (gain) | 10 % |
| 94. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 9 % |
| 95. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
NPD probable (gain) | 8 % |
| 96. | Spadina–Fort York | |
|
NPD probable (gain) | 8 % |
| 97. | Guelph | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 8 % |
| 98. | Willowdale | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 8 % |
| 99. | Delta | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 8 % |
| 100. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 7 % |
| 101. | Kingston et les Îles | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 7 % |
| 102. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
| 103. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 6 % |
| 104. | Saint John–Rothesay | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
| 105. | Waterloo | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
| 106. | Markham–Stouffville | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
| 107. | Toronto–Danforth | |
|
NPD probable (gain) | 6 % |
| 108. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
| 109. | Avalon | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 5 % |
| 110. | Mississauga–Streetsville | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 5 % |
| 111. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 5 % |
| 112. | Calgary Skyview |  |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 4 % |
| 113. | Malpeque | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 4 % |
| 114. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | |
 |
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 115. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 116. | Parkdale–High Park | |
|
NPD probable (gain) | 4 % |
| 117. | Cape Breton–Canso | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 4 % |
| 118. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 3 % |
| 119. | Davenport | |
|
NPD probable (gain) | 3 % |
| 120. | Thérèse-De Blainville | |
|
BQ probable | 3 % |
| 121. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 3 % |
| 122. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 3 % |
| 123. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 3 % |
| 124. | La Prairie | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 125. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
| 126. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 127. | Nepean | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
| 128. | Eglinton–Lawrence | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
| 129. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
| 130. | Montarville | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 131. | Pickering–Uxbridge | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 1 % |
| 132. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
NPD enclin (gain) | 1 % |
| 133. | Shefford | |
|
BQ probable | 1 % |
| 134. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC probable (gain) | 1 % |
| 135. | London-Centre-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin (gain) | 1 % |
| Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | PLC solide |
| 2. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC solide |
| 3. | Acadie–Bathurst | PLC solide |
| 4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | PLC solide |
| 5. | Bourassa | PLC solide |
| 6. | Markham–Thornhill | PLC solide |
| 7. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC solide |
| 8. | Scarborough–Guildwood | PLC solide |
| 9. | Saint-Laurent | PLC solide |
| 10. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | PLC solide |
| 11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | PLC solide |
| 12. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC solide |
| 13. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC solide |
| 14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | PLC solide |
| 15. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | PLC solide |
| 16. | Hull–Aylmer | PLC solide |
| 17. | Humber River–Black Creek | PLC solide |
| 18. | Vimy | PLC solide |
| 19. | Gatineau | PLC solide |
| 20. | Laval–Les Îles | PLC solide |
| 21. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | PLC solide |
| 22. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | PLC solide |
| 23. | Mont-Royal | PLC solide |
| 24. | Alfred-Pellan | PLC solide |
| 25. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | PLC solide |
| 26. | York-Sud–Weston | PLC solide |
| 27. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 28. | Papineau | PLC probable |
| 29. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | PLC probable |
| 30. | Don Valley-Est | PLC probable |
| 31. | Beaches–East York | PLC probable |
| 32. | Beauséjour | PLC probable |
| 33. | Surrey–Newton | PLC probable |
| 34. | St. John’s-Sud–Mount Pearl | PLC probable |
| 35. | Etobicoke-Nord | PLC probable |
| 36. | Pontiac | PLC probable |
| 37. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | PLC probable |
| 38. | Scarborough-Centre | PLC probable |
| 39. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | PLC probable |
| 40. | Vancouver-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 41. | Saint-Boniface–Saint-Vital | PLC enclin |
| 42. | Ajax | PLC enclin |
| 43. | Hochelaga | PLC enclin |
| 44. | Winnipeg-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 45. | Halifax-Ouest | PLC enclin |
| 46. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC enclin |
| 47. | Outremont | PLC enclin |
| 48. | Sherbrooke | PLC enclin |
| 49. | Mississauga-Centre | PLC enclin |
| 50. | Toronto-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 51. | Brampton-Est | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 52. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 53. | Madawaska–Restigouche | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 54. | Brampton-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 55. | Ottawa–Vanier | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 56. | University–Rosedale | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 57. | Surrey-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 58. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 59. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 60. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 61. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 62. | Scarborough–Agincourt | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 63. | Québec | Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ |
| 64. | Don Valley-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 65. | Mississauga–Malton | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 66. | Brampton-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 67. | Cardigan | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 68. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 69. | Louis-Hébert | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 70. | Brampton-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 71. | Compton–Stanstead | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 72. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 73. | Vancouver Quadra | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 74. | North Vancouver | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 75. | Vancouver-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 76. | Milton | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 77. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ enclin (gain) |
| 78. | Ottawa-Sud | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 79. | Charlottetown | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 80. | St. John’s-Est | NPD enclin (gain) |
| 81. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 82. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 83. | Egmont | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 84. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ enclin (gain) |
| 85. | Mississauga-Est–Cooksville | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 86. | Orléans | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 87. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 88. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | NPD enclin (gain) |
| 89. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 90. | Kings–Hants | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 91. | Labrador | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 92. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 93. | Halifax | NPD enclin (gain) |
| 94. | Brampton-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
| 95. | Ottawa-Centre | NPD probable (gain) |
| 96. | Spadina–Fort York | NPD probable (gain) |
| 97. | Guelph | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 98. | Willowdale | PCC probable (gain) |
| 99. | Delta | PCC probable (gain) |
| 100. | Yukon | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 101. | Kingston et les Îles | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 102. | Don Valley-Ouest | PCC probable (gain) |
| 103. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 104. | Saint John–Rothesay | PCC probable (gain) |
| 105. | Waterloo | PCC probable (gain) |
| 106. | Markham–Stouffville | PCC probable (gain) |
| 107. | Toronto–Danforth | NPD probable (gain) |
| 108. | Nova-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
| 109. | Avalon | PCC probable (gain) |
| 110. | Mississauga–Streetsville | PCC probable (gain) |
| 111. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | PCC probable (gain) |
| 112. | Calgary Skyview | PCC probable (gain) |
| 113. | Malpeque | PCC probable (gain) |
| 114. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | BQ probable |
| 115. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | BQ probable |
| 116. | Parkdale–High Park | NPD probable (gain) |
| 117. | Cape Breton–Canso | PCC probable (gain) |
| 118. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | PCC probable (gain) |
| 119. | Davenport | NPD probable (gain) |
| 120. | Thérèse-De Blainville | BQ probable |
| 121. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 122. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | PCC enclin (gain) |
| 123. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | PCC probable (gain) |
| 124. | La Prairie | BQ probable |
| 125. | Etobicoke-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
| 126. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | BQ probable |
| 127. | Nepean | PCC probable (gain) |
| 128. | Eglinton–Lawrence | PCC probable (gain) |
| 129. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | PCC probable (gain) |
| 130. | Montarville | BQ probable |
| 131. | Pickering–Uxbridge | PCC probable (gain) |
| 132. | Vancouver Granville | NPD enclin (gain) |
| 133. | Shefford | BQ probable |
| 134. | York-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
| 135. | London-Centre-Nord | PCC enclin (gain) |