Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 6 octobre 2024
| Chef | Justin Trudeau |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 22,5 % ± 3,1 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 53 [34-77] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 6 octobre 2024
Projection de sièges | 6 octobre 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Hull—Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Acadie—Bathurst |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Beaches—East York |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Scarborough-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Humber River—Black Creek | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Vimy | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 16. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 17. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 18. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 19. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 20. | Surrey Newton |  |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 21. | Winnipeg-Nord |  |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 22. | Cape Spear |  |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 23. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour |  |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 24. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 25. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 26. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 27. | Papineau | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 28. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC probable | 91 % |
| 29. | Vaudreuil | |
|
PLC enclin | 90 % |
| 30. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 31. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 32. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 33. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 34. | Laval—Les-Îles | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 35. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 81 % |
| 36. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 37. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 38. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 39. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 40. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 41. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
PLC enclin | 75 % |
| 42. | Halifax | |
|
PLC enclin | 73 % |
| 43. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
PLC enclin | 72 % |
| 44. | Ajax | |
|
PLC enclin | 71 % |
| 45. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 46. | Outremont | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 69 % |
| 47. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 48. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 49. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 65 % |
| 50. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 51. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 52. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 53. | Brampton-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 54. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 55. | Orléans | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 56. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 57. | Davenport | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 43 % |
| 58. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 37 % |
| 59. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 60. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 35 % |
| 61. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 62. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 63. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 64. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
BQ enclin | 27 % |
| 65. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 26 % |
| 66. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
BQ enclin | 26 % |
| 67. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 25 % |
| 68. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | |
|
NPD enclin | 24 % |
| 69. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
NPD enclin | 24 % |
| 70. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 71. | Sherbrooke | |
|
BQ enclin | 22 % |
| 72. | Québec-Centre | |
|
BQ enclin | 20 % |
| 73. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 19 % |
| 74. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | |
|
NPD enclin | 18 % |
| 75. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 76. | Guelph | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 77. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD/BQ | 17 % |
| 78. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
BQ enclin | 16 % |
| 79. | Waterloo | |
|
PCC enclin | 15 % |
| 80. | Cardigan |  |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 81. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 82. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 83. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 84. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 85. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 86. | Compton—Stanstead | |
|
BQ enclin | 11 % |
| 87. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | |
|
BQ enclin | 11 % |
| 88. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 89. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
PCC enclin | 9 % |
| 90. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 91. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 92. | Labrador | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 93. | Charlottetown | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 94. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
BQ probable | 7 % |
| 95. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 96. | Egmont | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 97. | Avalon | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 98. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 99. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 100. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 4 % |
| 101. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 4 % |
| 102. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 103. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 104. | Calgary McKnight |  |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 105. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 106. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 107. | Brome—Missisquoi | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 108. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | |
 |
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 109. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 110. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 111. | London-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 2 % |
| 112. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 113. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 114. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 115. | Nepean | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | PLC solide |
| 2. | Bourassa | PLC solide |
| 3. | Hull—Aylmer | PLC solide |
| 4. | Acadie—Bathurst | PLC solide |
| 5. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC solide |
| 6. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | PLC solide |
| 7. | Beaches—East York | PLC solide |
| 8. | Saint-Laurent | PLC solide |
| 9. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC solide |
| 10. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | PLC solide |
| 11. | Humber River—Black Creek | PLC solide |
| 12. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | PLC solide |
| 13. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | PLC solide |
| 14. | Gatineau | PLC solide |
| 15. | Vimy | PLC probable |
| 16. | Toronto-Centre | PLC probable |
| 17. | Beauséjour | PLC probable |
| 18. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 19. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | PLC probable |
| 20. | Surrey Newton | PLC probable |
| 21. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC probable |
| 22. | Cape Spear | PLC probable |
| 23. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | PLC probable |
| 24. | Scarborough—Woburn | PLC probable |
| 25. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC probable |
| 26. | Markham—Thornhill | PLC probable |
| 27. | Papineau | PLC probable |
| 28. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | PLC probable |
| 29. | Vaudreuil | PLC enclin |
| 30. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | PLC enclin |
| 31. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC enclin |
| 32. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | PLC enclin |
| 33. | University—Rosedale | PLC enclin |
| 34. | Laval—Les-Îles | PLC enclin |
| 35. | St. John’s Est | PLC enclin |
| 36. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | PLC enclin |
| 37. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 38. | Mont-Royal | PLC enclin |
| 39. | Etobicoke-Nord | PLC enclin |
| 40. | Moncton—Dieppe | PLC enclin |
| 41. | Halifax-Ouest | PLC enclin |
| 42. | Halifax | PLC enclin |
| 43. | Alfred-Pellan | PLC enclin |
| 44. | Ajax | PLC enclin |
| 45. | Brampton-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 46. | Outremont | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 47. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 48. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 49. | Ottawa-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 50. | Winnipeg-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 51. | Surrey-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 52. | Mississauga-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 53. | Brampton-Est | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 54. | Brampton-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 55. | Orléans | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 56. | Ottawa-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 57. | Davenport | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 58. | Toronto—Danforth | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 59. | Madawaska—Restigouche | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 60. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 61. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 62. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 63. | Mississauga—Malton | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 64. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | BQ enclin |
| 65. | Don Valley-Ouest | PCC enclin |
| 66. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | BQ enclin |
| 67. | Vancouver-Centre | PCC enclin |
| 68. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | NPD enclin |
| 69. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | NPD enclin |
| 70. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | PCC enclin |
| 71. | Sherbrooke | BQ enclin |
| 72. | Québec-Centre | BQ enclin |
| 73. | Louis-Hébert | Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ |
| 74. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | NPD enclin |
| 75. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | PCC enclin |
| 76. | Guelph | PCC enclin |
| 77. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | Pivot PLC/NPD/BQ |
| 78. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | BQ enclin |
| 79. | Waterloo | PCC enclin |
| 80. | Cardigan | PCC enclin |
| 81. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | PCC enclin |
| 82. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | PCC enclin |
| 83. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | PCC enclin |
| 84. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | PCC enclin |
| 85. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | PCC enclin |
| 86. | Compton—Stanstead | BQ enclin |
| 87. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | BQ enclin |
| 88. | Brampton-Centre | PCC probable |
| 89. | Kingston and the Islands | PCC enclin |
| 90. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | PCC probable |
| 91. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | PCC probable |
| 92. | Labrador | PCC probable |
| 93. | Charlottetown | PCC probable |
| 94. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | BQ probable |
| 95. | Markham—Stouffville | PCC probable |
| 96. | Egmont | PCC probable |
| 97. | Avalon | PCC probable |
| 98. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | PCC probable |
| 99. | Don Valley-Nord | PCC probable |
| 100. | Yukon | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 101. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 102. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | PCC probable |
| 103. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | PCC probable |
| 104. | Calgary McKnight | PCC probable |
| 105. | North Vancouver—Capilano | PCC probable |
| 106. | Pickering—Brooklin | PCC probable |
| 107. | Brome—Missisquoi | BQ probable |
| 108. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | BQ probable |
| 109. | Vancouver Granville | PCC probable |
| 110. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | BQ probable |
| 111. | London-Centre | PCC enclin |
| 112. | Vancouver Quadra | PCC probable |
| 113. | Kings—Hants | PCC probable |
| 114. | Mississauga—Streetsville | PCC probable |
| 115. | Nepean | PCC probable |