Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 17 novembre 2024
| Chef | Justin Trudeau |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 23,8 % ± 3,2 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 66 [43-93] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 17 novembre 2024
Projection de sièges | 17 novembre 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Scarborough-Nord |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Acadie—Bathurst |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Hull—Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Beaches—East York | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Humber River—Black Creek | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 14. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 15. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 16. | Winnipeg-Nord |  |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 17. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 18. | Cape Spear |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 19. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 20. | Surrey Newton |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 21. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 22. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 23. | Vimy | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 24. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 25. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 26. | Papineau | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 27. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour |  |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 28. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 29. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 30. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 31. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 94 % |
| 32. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 33. | Ajax | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 34. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 35. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 36. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 91 % |
| 37. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC probable | 90 % |
| 38. | Outremont | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 39. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 40. | Laval—Les-Îles | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 41. | Vaudreuil | |
|
PLC enclin | 87 % |
| 42. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 43. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC enclin | 83 % |
| 44. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 82 % |
| 45. | Orléans | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 46. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 47. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 48. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 49. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 50. | Halifax | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 51. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 75 % |
| 52. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 74 % |
| 53. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 74 % |
| 54. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 67 % |
| 55. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 67 % |
| 56. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 57. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 65 % |
| 58. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 65 % |
| 59. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 60. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 59 % |
| 61. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 59 % |
| 62. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 63. | Davenport | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 55 % |
| 64. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 65. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 50 % |
| 66. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 67. | Guelph | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 68. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 69. | Waterloo | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 70. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 71. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 42 % |
| 72. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 42 % |
| 73. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 74. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 40 % |
| 75. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 37 % |
| 76. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 37 % |
| 77. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 34 % |
| 78. | Cardigan |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 34 % |
| 79. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 80. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 81. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 31 % |
| 82. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PCC enclin | 28 % |
| 83. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 84. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
BQ enclin | 23 % |
| 85. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
BQ enclin | 23 % |
| 86. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD/BQ | 21 % |
| 87. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC enclin | 21 % |
| 88. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 21 % |
| 89. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 21 % |
| 90. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PCC enclin | 20 % |
| 91. | Charlottetown | |
|
PCC enclin | 20 % |
| 92. | Sherbrooke | |
|
BQ enclin | 18 % |
| 93. | Avalon | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 94. | Egmont | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 95. | Québec-Centre | |
|
BQ enclin | 17 % |
| 96. | Labrador | |
|
PCC enclin | 16 % |
| 97. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC enclin | 16 % |
| 98. | Calgary McKnight |  |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 99. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
BQ enclin | 13 % |
| 100. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 101. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 12 % |
| 102. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 103. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 12 % |
| 104. | London-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 11 % |
| 105. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PCC enclin | 11 % |
| 106. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 107. | Nepean | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 108. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 109. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 110. | Compton—Stanstead | |
|
BQ probable | 8 % |
| 111. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | |
|
BQ probable | 8 % |
| 112. | Whitby | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 113. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 114. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
BQ probable | 5 % |
| 115. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 116. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 117. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 118. | Malpeque | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 119. | Willowdale | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 120. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 121. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 122. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 2 % |
| 123. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 124. | Nunavut |  |
 |
NPD probable | 2 % |
| 125. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | |
 |
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 126. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 127. | Brome—Missisquoi | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 128. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 129. | Burlington | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 130. | Sudbury | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 131. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | PLC solide |
| 2. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC solide |
| 3. | Acadie—Bathurst | PLC solide |
| 4. | Hull—Aylmer | PLC solide |
| 5. | Beaches—East York | PLC solide |
| 6. | Bourassa | PLC solide |
| 7. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | PLC solide |
| 8. | Humber River—Black Creek | PLC solide |
| 9. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC solide |
| 10. | Saint-Laurent | PLC solide |
| 11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | PLC solide |
| 12. | Beauséjour | PLC solide |
| 13. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | PLC probable |
| 14. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 15. | Toronto-Centre | PLC probable |
| 16. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC probable |
| 17. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | PLC probable |
| 18. | Cape Spear | PLC probable |
| 19. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | PLC probable |
| 20. | Surrey Newton | PLC probable |
| 21. | Gatineau | PLC probable |
| 22. | Scarborough—Woburn | PLC probable |
| 23. | Vimy | PLC probable |
| 24. | Markham—Thornhill | PLC probable |
| 25. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | PLC probable |
| 26. | Papineau | PLC probable |
| 27. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | PLC probable |
| 28. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | PLC probable |
| 29. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC probable |
| 30. | University—Rosedale | PLC probable |
| 31. | Etobicoke-Nord | PLC probable |
| 32. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | PLC probable |
| 33. | Ajax | PLC probable |
| 34. | Moncton—Dieppe | PLC probable |
| 35. | Halifax-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 36. | Brampton-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 37. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | PLC probable |
| 38. | Outremont | PLC enclin |
| 39. | St. John’s Est | PLC enclin |
| 40. | Laval—Les-Îles | PLC enclin |
| 41. | Vaudreuil | PLC enclin |
| 42. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC enclin |
| 43. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | PLC enclin |
| 44. | Mississauga-Centre | PLC enclin |
| 45. | Orléans | PLC enclin |
| 46. | Brampton-Est | PLC enclin |
| 47. | Brampton-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 48. | Mont-Royal | PLC enclin |
| 49. | Ottawa-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 50. | Halifax | PLC enclin |
| 51. | Ottawa-Centre | PLC enclin |
| 52. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 53. | Surrey-Centre | PLC enclin |
| 54. | Alfred-Pellan | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 55. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 56. | Madawaska—Restigouche | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 57. | Mississauga—Malton | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 58. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 59. | Don Valley-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 60. | Toronto—Danforth | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 61. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 62. | Winnipeg-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 63. | Davenport | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 64. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 65. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 66. | Vancouver-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 67. | Guelph | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 68. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 69. | Waterloo | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 70. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 71. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 72. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 73. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 74. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 75. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 76. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 77. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 78. | Cardigan | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 79. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 80. | Brampton-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 81. | Kingston and the Islands | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 82. | Markham—Stouffville | PCC enclin |
| 83. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | PCC enclin |
| 84. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | BQ enclin |
| 85. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | BQ enclin |
| 86. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | Pivot PLC/NPD/BQ |
| 87. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | PCC enclin |
| 88. | Louis-Hébert | Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ |
| 89. | Don Valley-Nord | PCC enclin |
| 90. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | PCC enclin |
| 91. | Charlottetown | PCC enclin |
| 92. | Sherbrooke | BQ enclin |
| 93. | Avalon | PCC enclin |
| 94. | Egmont | PCC enclin |
| 95. | Québec-Centre | BQ enclin |
| 96. | Labrador | PCC enclin |
| 97. | Pickering—Brooklin | PCC enclin |
| 98. | Calgary McKnight | PCC enclin |
| 99. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | BQ enclin |
| 100. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | PCC enclin |
| 101. | Yukon | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 102. | Mississauga—Streetsville | PCC enclin |
| 103. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 104. | London-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 105. | Kings—Hants | PCC enclin |
| 106. | North Vancouver—Capilano | PCC enclin |
| 107. | Nepean | PCC enclin |
| 108. | Vancouver Granville | PCC enclin |
| 109. | Vancouver Quadra | PCC probable |
| 110. | Compton—Stanstead | BQ probable |
| 111. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | BQ probable |
| 112. | Whitby | PCC probable |
| 113. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | PCC probable |
| 114. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | BQ probable |
| 115. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PCC probable |
| 116. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | PCC probable |
| 117. | Nova-Centre | PCC probable |
| 118. | Malpeque | PCC probable |
| 119. | Willowdale | PCC probable |
| 120. | Oakville-Ouest | PCC probable |
| 121. | Richmond Hill-Sud | PCC probable |
| 122. | Hamilton Mountain | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 123. | Etobicoke-Centre | PCC probable |
| 124. | Nunavut | NPD probable |
| 125. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | BQ probable |
| 126. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | BQ probable |
| 127. | Brome—Missisquoi | BQ probable |
| 128. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | PCC probable |
| 129. | Burlington | PCC probable |
| 130. | Sudbury | PCC probable |
| 131. | Oakville-Est | PCC probable |