Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 21 juillet 2024
| Chef | Justin Trudeau |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 24,2 % ± 3,2 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | À venir |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 74 [51-101] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2021 transposés sur la nouvelle carte électorale.
Projection du vote | 21 juillet 2024
Projection de sièges | 21 juillet 2024
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2021 (Redécoupage) |
Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Acadie—Bathurst |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Winnipeg-Nord |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Hull—Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Scarborough-Nord |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Beaches—East York | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Vimy | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Cape Spear |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Humber River—Black Creek | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Papineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Vaudreuil | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Surrey Newton |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 27. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 28. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 29. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 30. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 31. | Halifax-Ouest |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 32. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 33. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 34. | Outremont | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 35. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 36. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 37. | Lac-Saint-Louis | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 38. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 39. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 40. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
PLC probable | 95 % |
| 41. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC probable | 93 % |
| 42. | Ajax | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 43. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC probable | 91 % |
| 44. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PLC probable | 90 % |
| 45. | Laval—Les-Îles | |
|
PLC enclin | 90 % |
| 46. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 47. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 48. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 49. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 50. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 84 % |
| 51. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
PLC enclin | 82 % |
| 52. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 53. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |  |
|
PLC enclin | 79 % |
| 54. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | |
|
PLC enclin | 79 % |
| 55. | Orléans | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 56. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 57. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 58. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 59. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 75 % |
| 60. | Cardigan |  |
|
PLC enclin | 73 % |
| 61. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
PLC enclin | 72 % |
| 62. | Davenport | |
|
PLC enclin | 71 % |
| 63. | Halifax | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 70 % |
| 64. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 67 % |
| 65. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 64 % |
| 66. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 63 % |
| 67. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 62 % |
| 68. | Avalon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 69. | Charlottetown | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
| 70. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 53 % |
| 71. | Egmont | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 72. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 73. | Kings—Hants | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 74. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 50 % |
| 75. | Guelph | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 76. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 77. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 78. | Waterloo | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 79. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 41 % |
| 80. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 81. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 39 % |
| 82. | Labrador | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
| 83. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 36 % |
| 84. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 36 % |
| 85. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 35 % |
| 86. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 35 % |
| 87. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
 |
Pivot PLC/PCC | 33 % |
| 88. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 89. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 90. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 30 % |
| 91. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 30 % |
| 92. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 28 % |
| 93. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PCC enclin | 26 % |
| 94. | Québec-Centre | |
|
BQ enclin | 26 % |
| 95. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PCC enclin | 22 % |
| 96. | Malpeque | |
|
PCC enclin | 20 % |
| 97. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
BQ enclin | 20 % |
| 98. | Sherbrooke | |
|
BQ enclin | 20 % |
| 99. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PCC enclin | 19 % |
| 100. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 101. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 102. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 14 % |
| 103. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 104. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
PCC enclin | 14 % |
| 105. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 106. | Calgary McKnight |  |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 107. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PCC enclin | 11 % |
| 108. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PCC enclin | 11 % |
| 109. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 110. | London-Centre | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 10 % |
| 111. | Nepean | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 112. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | |
|
BQ probable | 9 % |
| 113. | Compton—Stanstead | |
|
BQ probable | 9 % |
| 114. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 115. | Yukon |  |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 8 % |
| 116. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 117. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 118. | Vancouver Quadra | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 119. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PCC enclin | 7 % |
| 120. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PCC probable | 6 % |
| 121. | Whitby | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 122. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 123. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 124. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | |
 |
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 125. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | |
 |
NPD probable | 4 % |
| 126. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 127. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 128. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 129. | Brome—Missisquoi | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 130. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 131. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 132. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 2 % |
| 133. | Winnipeg-Centre | |
|
NPD probable | 2 % |
| 134. | Willowdale | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 135. | Burlington | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 136. | Central Newfoundland | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| 137. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |
| Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Acadie—Bathurst | PLC solide |
| 2. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | PLC solide |
| 3. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC solide |
| 4. | Bourassa | PLC solide |
| 5. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC solide |
| 6. | Hull—Aylmer | PLC solide |
| 7. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | PLC solide |
| 8. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | PLC solide |
| 9. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC solide |
| 10. | Beauséjour | PLC solide |
| 11. | Beaches—East York | PLC solide |
| 12. | Vimy | PLC solide |
| 13. | Saint-Laurent | PLC solide |
| 14. | Cape Spear | PLC solide |
| 15. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC solide |
| 16. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | PLC solide |
| 17. | Humber River—Black Creek | PLC solide |
| 18. | Toronto-Centre | PLC solide |
| 19. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | PLC solide |
| 20. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | PLC solide |
| 21. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | PLC solide |
| 22. | Papineau | PLC solide |
| 23. | Vaudreuil | PLC solide |
| 24. | Surrey Newton | PLC solide |
| 25. | Moncton—Dieppe | PLC solide |
| 26. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 27. | Alfred-Pellan | PLC probable |
| 28. | Winnipeg-Sud | PLC probable |
| 29. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | PLC probable |
| 30. | Gatineau | PLC probable |
| 31. | Halifax-Ouest | PLC probable |
| 32. | Markham—Thornhill | PLC probable |
| 33. | Scarborough—Woburn | PLC probable |
| 34. | Outremont | PLC probable |
| 35. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | PLC probable |
| 36. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | PLC probable |
| 37. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC probable |
| 38. | University—Rosedale | PLC probable |
| 39. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | PLC probable |
| 40. | Madawaska—Restigouche | PLC probable |
| 41. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | PLC probable |
| 42. | Ajax | PLC probable |
| 43. | Mont-Royal | PLC probable |
| 44. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | PLC probable |
| 45. | Laval—Les-Îles | PLC enclin |
| 46. | Etobicoke-Nord | PLC enclin |
| 47. | Brampton-Ouest | PLC enclin |
| 48. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | PLC enclin |
| 49. | St. John’s Est | PLC enclin |
| 50. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | PLC enclin |
| 51. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | PLC enclin |
| 52. | Mississauga-Centre | PLC enclin |
| 53. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | PLC enclin |
| 54. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | PLC enclin |
| 55. | Orléans | PLC enclin |
| 56. | Brampton-Est | PLC enclin |
| 57. | Surrey-Centre | PLC enclin |
| 58. | Brampton-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 59. | Ottawa-Sud | PLC enclin |
| 60. | Cardigan | PLC enclin |
| 61. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | PLC enclin |
| 62. | Davenport | PLC enclin |
| 63. | Halifax | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 64. | Ottawa-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 65. | Toronto—Danforth | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 66. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 67. | Mississauga—Malton | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 68. | Avalon | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 69. | Charlottetown | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 70. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 71. | Egmont | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 72. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 73. | Kings—Hants | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 74. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 75. | Guelph | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 76. | Don Valley-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 77. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 78. | Waterloo | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 79. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 80. | Vancouver-Centre | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 81. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 82. | Labrador | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 83. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | Pivot PLC/NPD |
| 84. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 85. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | Pivot PLC/BQ |
| 86. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 87. | Winnipeg-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 88. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 89. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Pivot PLC/PCC |
| 90. | Kingston and the Islands | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 91. | Brampton-Centre | PCC enclin |
| 92. | Nova-Centre | PCC enclin |
| 93. | Markham—Stouffville | PCC enclin |
| 94. | Québec-Centre | BQ enclin |
| 95. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | PCC enclin |
| 96. | Malpeque | PCC enclin |
| 97. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | BQ enclin |
| 98. | Sherbrooke | BQ enclin |
| 99. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | PCC enclin |
| 100. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | PCC enclin |
| 101. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | PCC enclin |
| 102. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
| 103. | Pickering—Brooklin | PCC enclin |
| 104. | Louis-Hébert | PCC enclin |
| 105. | Don Valley-Nord | PCC enclin |
| 106. | Calgary McKnight | PCC enclin |
| 107. | Sydney—Glace Bay | PCC enclin |
| 108. | Mississauga—Streetsville | PCC enclin |
| 109. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | PCC enclin |
| 110. | London-Centre | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 111. | Nepean | PCC probable |
| 112. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | BQ probable |
| 113. | Compton—Stanstead | BQ probable |
| 114. | North Vancouver—Capilano | PCC probable |
| 115. | Yukon | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 116. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | PCC probable |
| 117. | Fredericton—Oromocto | PCC probable |
| 118. | Vancouver Quadra | PCC probable |
| 119. | Vancouver Granville | PCC enclin |
| 120. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | PCC probable |
| 121. | Whitby | PCC probable |
| 122. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | PCC probable |
| 123. | Long Range Mountains | PCC probable |
| 124. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | BQ probable |
| 125. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | NPD probable |
| 126. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | PCC probable |
| 127. | Oakville-Ouest | PCC probable |
| 128. | Richmond Hill-Sud | PCC probable |
| 129. | Brome—Missisquoi | BQ probable |
| 130. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | BQ probable |
| 131. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PCC probable |
| 132. | Hamilton Mountain | Pivot PCC/NPD |
| 133. | Winnipeg-Centre | NPD probable |
| 134. | Willowdale | PCC probable |
| 135. | Burlington | PCC probable |
| 136. | Central Newfoundland | PCC probable |
| 137. | Oakville-Est | PCC probable |