Parti libéral du Canada

Dernière mise à jour: 3 décembre 2023
Chef | Justin Trudeau |
Proportion du suffrage national en 2021 | 32.6% |
Projection de vote actuelle | 24,8 % ± 3,2 % |
Nombre actuel de députés-es | 158 |
Projection de sièges actuelle | 63 [43-86] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Projection du vote | 3 décembre 2023
Projection de sièges | 3 décembre 2023
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
Rang | Circonscription | Province | Parti actuel | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
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1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
2. | Scarborough-Nord | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
5. | Bourassa | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
6. | Markham–Thornhill | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
7. | Honoré-Mercier | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
8. | Scarborough–Guildwood | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
9. | Saint-Laurent | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
10. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
12. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
13. | Lac-Saint-Louis | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
15. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
16. | Hull–Aylmer | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
17. | Humber River–Black Creek | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
18. | Vimy | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
19. | Gatineau | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
20. | Laval–Les Îles | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
21. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
22. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
23. | Mont-Royal | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
24. | Alfred-Pellan | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
25. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
26. | York-Sud–Weston | ![]() |
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PLC solide | > 99 % |
27. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 99 % |
28. | Papineau | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 99 % |
29. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 99 % |
30. | Don Valley-Est | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 99 % |
31. | Beaches–East York | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 98 % |
32. | Beauséjour | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 97 % |
33. | Surrey–Newton | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 96 % |
34. | St. John’s-Sud–Mount Pearl | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 96 % |
35. | Etobicoke-Nord | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 94 % |
36. | Pontiac | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 93 % |
37. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 93 % |
38. | Scarborough-Centre | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 92 % |
39. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | ![]() |
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PLC probable | 90 % |
40. | Vancouver-Sud | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 88 % |
41. | Saint-Boniface–Saint-Vital | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 88 % |
42. | Ajax | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 85 % |
43. | Hochelaga | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 82 % |
44. | Winnipeg-Sud | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 82 % |
45. | Halifax-Ouest | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 80 % |
46. | Winnipeg-Nord | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 79 % |
47. | Outremont | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 78 % |
48. | Sherbrooke | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 72 % |
49. | Mississauga-Centre | ![]() |
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PLC enclin | 72 % |
50. | Toronto-Centre | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 69 % |
51. | Brampton-Est | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
52. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
53. | Madawaska–Restigouche | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
54. | Brampton-Ouest | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
55. | Ottawa–Vanier | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 64 % |
56. | University–Rosedale | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 64 % |
57. | Surrey-Centre | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 64 % |
58. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/BQ | 63 % |
59. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
60. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 59 % |
61. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/BQ | 55 % |
62. | Scarborough–Agincourt | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 54 % |
63. | Québec | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 52 % |
64. | Don Valley-Nord | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
65. | Mississauga–Malton | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
66. | Brampton-Nord | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
67. | Cardigan | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
68. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/BQ | 38 % |
69. | Louis-Hébert | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
70. | Brampton-Sud | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % |
71. | Compton–Stanstead | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/BQ | 35 % |
72. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 35 % |
73. | Vancouver Quadra | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 28 % |
74. | North Vancouver | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 26 % |
75. | Vancouver-Centre | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/NPD | 23 % |
76. | Milton | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 23 % |
77. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | ![]() |
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BQ enclin (gain) | 23 % |
78. | Ottawa-Sud | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 23 % |
79. | Charlottetown | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 20 % |
80. | St. John’s-Est | ![]() |
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NPD enclin (gain) | 19 % |
81. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 19 % |
82. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 19 % |
83. | Egmont | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 19 % |
84. | Brome–Missisquoi | ![]() |
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BQ enclin (gain) | 19 % |
85. | Mississauga-Est–Cooksville | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 16 % |
86. | Orléans | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 15 % |
87. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 14 % |
88. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | ![]() |
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NPD enclin (gain) | 13 % |
89. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % |
90. | Kings–Hants | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 12 % |
91. | Labrador | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 11 % |
92. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | ![]() |
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Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 11 % |
93. | Halifax | ![]() |
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NPD enclin (gain) | 10 % |
94. | Brampton-Centre | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 9 % |
95. | Ottawa-Centre | ![]() |
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NPD probable (gain) | 8 % |
96. | Spadina–Fort York | ![]() |
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NPD probable (gain) | 8 % |
97. | Guelph | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 8 % |
98. | Willowdale | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 8 % |
99. | Delta | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 8 % |
100. | Yukon | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD | 7 % |
101. | Kingston et les Îles | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD | 7 % |
102. | Don Valley-Ouest | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
103. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 6 % |
104. | Saint John–Rothesay | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
105. | Waterloo | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
106. | Markham–Stouffville | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
107. | Toronto–Danforth | ![]() |
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NPD probable (gain) | 6 % |
108. | Nova-Centre | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 6 % |
109. | Avalon | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 5 % |
110. | Mississauga–Streetsville | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 5 % |
111. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 5 % |
112. | Calgary Skyview | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 4 % |
113. | Malpeque | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 4 % |
114. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 4 % |
115. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 4 % |
116. | Parkdale–High Park | ![]() |
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NPD probable (gain) | 4 % |
117. | Cape Breton–Canso | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 4 % |
118. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 3 % |
119. | Davenport | ![]() |
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NPD probable (gain) | 3 % |
120. | Thérèse-De Blainville | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 3 % |
121. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | ![]() |
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Pivot PCC/NPD | 3 % |
122. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 3 % |
123. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 3 % |
124. | La Prairie | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 2 % |
125. | Etobicoke-Centre | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
126. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 2 % |
127. | Nepean | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
128. | Eglinton–Lawrence | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
129. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 2 % |
130. | Montarville | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 2 % |
131. | Pickering–Uxbridge | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 1 % |
132. | Vancouver Granville | ![]() |
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NPD enclin (gain) | 1 % |
133. | Shefford | ![]() |
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BQ probable | 1 % |
134. | York-Centre | ![]() |
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PCC probable (gain) | 1 % |
135. | London-Centre-Nord | ![]() |
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PCC enclin (gain) | 1 % |
Rang | Circonscription | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel | PLC solide |
2. | Scarborough-Nord | PLC solide |
3. | Acadie–Bathurst | PLC solide |
4. | Scarborough–Rouge Park | PLC solide |
5. | Bourassa | PLC solide |
6. | Markham–Thornhill | PLC solide |
7. | Honoré-Mercier | PLC solide |
8. | Scarborough–Guildwood | PLC solide |
9. | Saint-Laurent | PLC solide |
10. | Pierrefonds–Dollard | PLC solide |
11. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount | PLC solide |
12. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | PLC solide |
13. | Lac-Saint-Louis | PLC solide |
14. | Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle | PLC solide |
15. | Brossard–Saint-Lambert | PLC solide |
16. | Hull–Aylmer | PLC solide |
17. | Humber River–Black Creek | PLC solide |
18. | Vimy | PLC solide |
19. | Gatineau | PLC solide |
20. | Laval–Les Îles | PLC solide |
21. | Vaudreuil–Soulanges | PLC solide |
22. | Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs | PLC solide |
23. | Mont-Royal | PLC solide |
24. | Alfred-Pellan | PLC solide |
25. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud | PLC solide |
26. | York-Sud–Weston | PLC solide |
27. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | PLC probable |
28. | Papineau | PLC probable |
29. | LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | PLC probable |
30. | Don Valley-Est | PLC probable |
31. | Beaches–East York | PLC probable |
32. | Beauséjour | PLC probable |
33. | Surrey–Newton | PLC probable |
34. | St. John’s-Sud–Mount Pearl | PLC probable |
35. | Etobicoke-Nord | PLC probable |
36. | Pontiac | PLC probable |
37. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | PLC probable |
38. | Scarborough-Centre | PLC probable |
39. | Saint-Maurice–Champlain | PLC probable |
40. | Vancouver-Sud | PLC enclin |
41. | Saint-Boniface–Saint-Vital | PLC enclin |
42. | Ajax | PLC enclin |
43. | Hochelaga | PLC enclin |
44. | Winnipeg-Sud | PLC enclin |
45. | Halifax-Ouest | PLC enclin |
46. | Winnipeg-Nord | PLC enclin |
47. | Outremont | PLC enclin |
48. | Sherbrooke | PLC enclin |
49. | Mississauga-Centre | PLC enclin |
50. | Toronto-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
51. | Brampton-Est | Pivot PLC/PCC |
52. | Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe | Pivot PLC/PCC |
53. | Madawaska–Restigouche | Pivot PLC/PCC |
54. | Brampton-Ouest | Pivot PLC/PCC |
55. | Ottawa–Vanier | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
56. | University–Rosedale | Pivot PLC/NPD |
57. | Surrey-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
58. | Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Pivot PLC/BQ |
59. | Toronto–St. Paul’s | Pivot PLC/PCC |
60. | Laurier–Sainte-Marie | Pivot PLC/NPD |
61. | Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne | Pivot PLC/BQ |
62. | Scarborough–Agincourt | Pivot PLC/PCC |
63. | Québec | Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ |
64. | Don Valley-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC |
65. | Mississauga–Malton | Pivot PLC/PCC |
66. | Brampton-Nord | Pivot PLC/PCC |
67. | Cardigan | Pivot PLC/PCC |
68. | Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation | Pivot PLC/BQ |
69. | Louis-Hébert | Pivot PLC/PCC |
70. | Brampton-Sud | Pivot PLC/PCC |
71. | Compton–Stanstead | Pivot PLC/BQ |
72. | Dartmouth–Cole Harbour | Pivot PLC/NPD |
73. | Vancouver Quadra | PCC enclin (gain) |
74. | North Vancouver | PCC enclin (gain) |
75. | Vancouver-Centre | Pivot PLC/NPD |
76. | Milton | PCC enclin (gain) |
77. | Châteauguay–Lacolle | BQ enclin (gain) |
78. | Ottawa-Sud | PCC enclin (gain) |
79. | Charlottetown | PCC enclin (gain) |
80. | St. John’s-Est | NPD enclin (gain) |
81. | Fleetwood–Port Kells | PCC enclin (gain) |
82. | Burnaby-Nord–Seymour | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
83. | Egmont | PCC enclin (gain) |
84. | Brome–Missisquoi | BQ enclin (gain) |
85. | Mississauga-Est–Cooksville | PCC enclin (gain) |
86. | Orléans | PCC enclin (gain) |
87. | Steveston–Richmond-Est | PCC enclin (gain) |
88. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest | NPD enclin (gain) |
89. | Mississauga–Erin Mills | PCC enclin (gain) |
90. | Kings–Hants | PCC enclin (gain) |
91. | Labrador | PCC enclin (gain) |
92. | Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook | Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD |
93. | Halifax | NPD enclin (gain) |
94. | Brampton-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
95. | Ottawa-Centre | NPD probable (gain) |
96. | Spadina–Fort York | NPD probable (gain) |
97. | Guelph | PCC enclin (gain) |
98. | Willowdale | PCC probable (gain) |
99. | Delta | PCC probable (gain) |
100. | Yukon | Pivot PCC/NPD |
101. | Kingston et les Îles | Pivot PCC/NPD |
102. | Don Valley-Ouest | PCC probable (gain) |
103. | Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam | PCC enclin (gain) |
104. | Saint John–Rothesay | PCC probable (gain) |
105. | Waterloo | PCC probable (gain) |
106. | Markham–Stouffville | PCC probable (gain) |
107. | Toronto–Danforth | NPD probable (gain) |
108. | Nova-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
109. | Avalon | PCC probable (gain) |
110. | Mississauga–Streetsville | PCC probable (gain) |
111. | Etobicoke–Lakeshore | PCC probable (gain) |
112. | Calgary Skyview | PCC probable (gain) |
113. | Malpeque | PCC probable (gain) |
114. | Longueuil–Saint-Hubert | BQ probable |
115. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | BQ probable |
116. | Parkdale–High Park | NPD probable (gain) |
117. | Cape Breton–Canso | PCC probable (gain) |
118. | Ottawa-Ouest–Nepean | PCC probable (gain) |
119. | Davenport | NPD probable (gain) |
120. | Thérèse-De Blainville | BQ probable |
121. | Thunder Bay–Supérieur-Nord | Pivot PCC/NPD |
122. | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | PCC enclin (gain) |
123. | Hamilton-Ouest–Ancaster–Dundas | PCC probable (gain) |
124. | La Prairie | BQ probable |
125. | Etobicoke-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
126. | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | BQ probable |
127. | Nepean | PCC probable (gain) |
128. | Eglinton–Lawrence | PCC probable (gain) |
129. | Mississauga–Lakeshore | PCC probable (gain) |
130. | Montarville | BQ probable |
131. | Pickering–Uxbridge | PCC probable (gain) |
132. | Vancouver Granville | NPD enclin (gain) |
133. | Shefford | BQ probable |
134. | York-Centre | PCC probable (gain) |
135. | London-Centre-Nord | PCC enclin (gain) |