Parti libéral du Canada
Dernière mise à jour: 13 juillet 2025
| Chef | Mark Carney |
| Proportion du suffrage national en 2025 | 43.8% |
| Projection de vote actuelle | 45,7 % ± 4,6 % |
| Nombre actuel de députés-es | 169 |
| Projection de sièges actuelle | 193 [151-238] |
L'efficacité du vote (sièges vs vote) n'est pas une fonction linéaire, mais peut être approximée comme une fonction linéaire sur des intervalles de vote restreints.
Gains et pertes projetés comparés aux résultats de 2025.
Projection du vote | 13 juillet 2025
Projection de sièges | 13 juillet 2025
Liste des circonscriptions favorables | Parti libéral du Canada
| Rang | Circonscription | Province | Vainqueur 2025 | Dernière projection | Probabilité de victoire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Lac-Saint-Louis |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 2. | Cape Spear |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 3. | Acadie—Bathurst |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 4. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 5. | Orléans |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 6. | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 7. | Beaches—East York | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 8. | Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 9. | Halifax-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 10. | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 11. | Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 12. | Charlottetown |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 13. | Winnipeg-Centre-Sud |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 14. | Brossard—Saint-Lambert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 15. | Toronto—Danforth | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 16. | Ottawa-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 17. | Hull—Aylmer | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 18. | Moncton—Dieppe | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 19. | Nepean | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 20. | Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 21. | Gatineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 22. | Sackville—Bedford—Preston | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 23. | Pierrefonds—Dollard | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 24. | Ahuntsic-Cartierville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 25. | Scarborough-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 26. | Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 27. | Kingston and the Islands | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 28. | Honoré-Mercier | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 29. | University—Rosedale | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 30. | Toronto-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 31. | Don Valley-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 32. | Fredericton—Oromocto | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 33. | St. John’s Est | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 34. | Vancouver Quadra |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 35. | Halifax | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 36. | Beauséjour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 37. | Kings—Hants | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 38. | Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 39. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 40. | Saint-Boniface—St. Vital | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 41. | Saint-Laurent | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 42. | Winnipeg-Sud | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 43. | Vancouver Granville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 44. | Scarborough-Sud-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 45. | Bourassa | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 46. | Kanata | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 47. | Vaudreuil | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 48. | Scarborough—Woburn | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 49. | Ottawa-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 50. | Avalon | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 51. | Winnipeg-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 52. | Spadina—Harbourfront | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 53. | Waterloo | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 54. | Louis-Hébert | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 55. | Alfred-Pellan | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 56. | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 57. | Outremont | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 58. | Vimy | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 59. | London-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 60. | Davenport | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 61. | Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 62. | Vancouver-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 63. | Papineau | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 64. | Guelph | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 65. | Sherbrooke | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 66. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 67. | Saint-Maurice—Champlain | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 68. | Laval—Les Îles | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 69. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 70. | Victoria | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 71. | LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 72. | Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 73. | Brome—Missisquoi | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 74. | Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 75. | Compton—Stanstead | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 76. | Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 77. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |  |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 78. | North Vancouver—Capilano | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 79. | Burnaby-Nord—Seymour | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 80. | Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 81. | West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 82. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 83. | Saint John—Kennebecasis | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 84. | Trois-Rivières | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 85. | Thérèse-De Blainville | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 86. | Hamilton-Ouest—Ancaster—Dundas | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 87. | Rivière-des-Milles-Îles | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 88. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 89. | Malpeque | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 90. | London-Ouest | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 91. | Québec-Centre | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 92. | Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 93. | Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 94. | Sydney—Glace Bay | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 95. | Humber River—Black Creek | |
|
PLC solide | > 99 % |
| 96. | Ajax | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 97. | Winnipeg-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 98. | Scarborough-Centre—Don Valley-Est | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 99. | Cardigan | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 100. | Madawaska—Restigouche | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 101. | Burlington | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 102. | Mont-Royal | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 103. | South Shore—St. Margarets | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 104. | La Prairie—Atateken | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 105. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 106. | Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 107. | Vancouver Fraserview—Burnaby-Sud | |
|
PLC probable | > 99 % |
| 108. | York-Sud—Weston—Etobicoke | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 109. | Peterborough | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 110. | Pickering—Brooklin | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 111. | Territoires du Nord-Ouest |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 112. | Sudbury | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 113. | Edmonton-Centre |  |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 114. | St. Catharines | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 115. | Markham—Thornhill | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 116. | Beauport—Limoilou | |
|
PLC probable | 99 % |
| 117. | Mississauga-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 118. | Nova-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 119. | Scarborough—Agincourt | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 120. | Mississauga—Malton | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 121. | Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 122. | Etobicoke-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 123. | Don Valley-Nord | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 124. | Yukon |  |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 125. | Les Pays-d’en-Haut | |
|
PLC probable | 98 % |
| 126. | Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 127. | Etobicoke-Centre | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 128. | Churchill—Keewatinook Aski | |
|
PLC probable | 97 % |
| 129. | Whitby | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 130. | Egmont | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 131. | Burlington-Nord—Milton-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 132. | Willowdale | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 133. | Oakville-Ouest | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 134. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | |
|
PLC probable | 96 % |
| 135. | Labrador | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 136. | Mississauga—Streetsville | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 137. | Delta | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 138. | Oakville-Est | |
|
PLC probable | 92 % |
| 139. | Markham—Stouffville | |
|
PLC probable | 91 % |
| 140. | Bay of Quinte | |
|
PLC probable | 91 % |
| 141. | Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | |
|
PLC probable | 90 % |
| 142. | Carleton | |
|
PLC enclin | 90 % |
| 143. | Mississauga-Est—Cooksville | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 144. | Cumberland—Colchester | |
|
PLC enclin | 89 % |
| 145. | Thunder Bay—Rainy River | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 146. | Calgary Confederation | |
|
PLC enclin | 88 % |
| 147. | Hamilton Mountain | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 148. | Terrebonne | |
|
PLC enclin | 86 % |
| 149. | Brampton—Chinguacousy Park | |
|
PLC enclin | 85 % |
| 150. | Brampton-Est | |
|
PLC enclin | 84 % |
| 151. | Shefford | |
 |
PLC enclin | 83 % |
| 152. | Surrey Newton | |
|
PLC enclin | 81 % |
| 153. | Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma | |
|
PLC enclin | 81 % |
| 154. | Nipissing—Timiskaming | |
|
PLC enclin | 81 % |
| 155. | Surrey-Sud—White Rock | |
|
PLC enclin | 81 % |
| 156. | Terra Nova—Les Péninsules | |
 |
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 157. | Surrey-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 80 % |
| 158. | Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam | |
|
PLC enclin | 79 % |
| 159. | Kildonan—St. Paul | |
|
PLC enclin | 78 % |
| 160. | Acadie—Annapolis | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 161. | Burnaby Central | |
|
PLC enclin | 77 % |
| 162. | Miramichi—Grand Lake | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 163. | Eglinton—Lawrence | |
|
PLC enclin | 76 % |
| 164. | Fleetwood—Port Kells | |
|
PLC enclin | 75 % |
| 165. | Brampton-Sud | |
|
PLC enclin | 75 % |
| 166. | Brampton-Nord—Caledon | |
|
PLC enclin | 75 % |
| 167. | Port Moody—Coquitlam | |
|
PLC enclin | 75 % |
| 168. | Brampton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 74 % |
| 169. | Kitchener—Conestoga | |
|
PLC enclin | 73 % |
| 170. | Hamilton-Centre | |
|
PLC enclin | 71 % |
| 171. | Milton-Est—Halton Hills-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 70 % |
| 172. | Repentigny | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 69 % |
| 173. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 69 % |
| 174. | Chicoutimi—Le Fjord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 68 % |
| 175. | Richmond-Est—Steveston | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 68 % |
| 176. | Richmond—Arthabaska | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 177. | Kelowna | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 66 % |
| 178. | Edmonton Riverbend | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 61 % |
| 179. | Calgary McKnight | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 180. | Kitchener-Sud—Hespeler | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 60 % |
| 181. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 59 % |
| 182. | Hamilton-Est—Stoney Creek | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 58 % |
| 183. | Brampton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 58 % |
| 184. | Cambridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 57 % |
| 185. | La Pointe-de-l’Île | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 56 % |
| 186. | Regina—Wascana | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 56 % |
| 187. | Calgary-Centre | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 55 % |
| 188. | Northumberland—Clarke | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 189. | Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 52 % |
| 190. | Regina—Lewvan | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 51 % |
| 191. | Newmarket—Aurora | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 192. | Markham—Unionville | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 50 % |
| 193. | Cloverdale—Langley City | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 49 % |
| 194. | Simcoe-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 48 % |
| 195. | Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
| 196. | Niagara-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 47 % |
| 197. | Saskatoon—University | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 198. | Bowmanville—Oshawa Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 199. | Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 46 % |
| 200. | Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 46 % |
| 201. | Mirabel | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 45 % |
| 202. | Saskatoon-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 45 % |
| 203. | Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj | |
|
Pivot PLC/BQ | 44 % |
| 204. | Long Range Mountains | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 44 % |
| 205. | Lanark—Frontenac | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 43 % |
| 206. | Oshawa | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 40 % |
| 207. | Vancouver Kingsway | |
 |
Pivot PLC/NPD | 39 % |
| 208. | Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 38 % |
| 209. | Montmorency—Charlevoix | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/BQ | 38 % |
| 210. | Edmonton-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 36 % |
| 211. | Wellington—Halton Hills-Nord | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 35 % |
| 212. | Nunavut |  |
|
Pivot PLC/NPD | 35 % |
| 213. | Richmond-Centre—Marpole | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 32 % |
| 214. | Central Newfoundland | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 215. | Elgin—St. Thomas—London-Sud | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 216. | Sudbury-Est—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 31 % |
| 217. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC | 30 % |
| 218. | Laurentides—Labelle | |
|
BQ enclin | 28 % |
| 219. | Richmond Hill-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 28 % |
| 220. | Edmonton Gateway | |
|
PCC enclin | 27 % |
| 221. | Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk | |
|
PCC enclin | 27 % |
| 222. | Edmonton-Sud-Est | |
|
PCC enclin | 26 % |
| 223. | Saint John—St. Croix | |
|
PCC enclin | 25 % |
| 224. | Rimouski—La Matapédia | |
|
BQ enclin | 25 % |
| 225. | Saint-Jean | |
|
BQ enclin | 24 % |
| 226. | Niagara-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 227. | Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton | |
|
BQ enclin | 23 % |
| 228. | Simcoe—Grey | |
|
PCC enclin | 23 % |
| 229. | Okanagan Lake Ouest—Kelowna-Sud | |
|
PCC enclin | 22 % |
| 230. | Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant-Nord | |
|
PCC enclin | 21 % |
| 231. | Edmonton-Nord-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 20 % |
| 232. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | |
|
PCC enclin | 20 % |
| 233. | Middlesex—London | |
|
PCC enclin | 19 % |
| 234. | Winnipeg-Centre | |
|
NPD enclin | 18 % |
| 235. | Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 236. | Similkameen—Okanagan-Sud—Kootenay-Ouest | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 237. | Fundy Royal | |
|
PCC enclin | 18 % |
| 238. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | |
|
PCC enclin | 17 % |
| 239. | Langley Township—Fraser Heights | |
|
PCC enclin | 16 % |
| 240. | Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon | |
|
BQ enclin | 14 % |
| 241. | York-Centre | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 242. | Rivière-du-Nord | |
|
BQ enclin | 13 % |
| 243. | Brantford—Brant-Sud—Six Nations | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 244. | Huron—Bruce | |
|
PCC enclin | 13 % |
| 245. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 246. | Calgary Skyview | |
|
PCC enclin | 12 % |
| 247. | Windsor-Ouest | |
|
Pivot PLC/PCC/NPD | 11 % |
| 248. | Edmonton Manning | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 249. | Perth—Wellington | |
|
PCC enclin | 10 % |
| 250. | Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata | |
|
PCC probable | 10 % |
| 251. | Abbotsford—Langley-Sud | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 252. | Kenora—Kiiwetinoong | |
|
PCC probable | 9 % |
| 253. | Beloeil—Chambly | |
|
BQ probable | 9 % |
| 254. | Berthier—Maskinongé | |
|
BQ enclin | 8 % |
| 255. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 256. | Nanaimo—Ladysmith | |
|
PCC probable | 8 % |
| 257. | Vancouver-Est | |
|
NPD probable | 8 % |
| 258. | Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 259. | London—Fanshawe | |
|
PCC enclin | 7 % |
| 260. | Saanich—Gulf Islands | |
 |
PVC probable | 7 % |
| 261. | Kitchener-Centre | |
|
Pivot PCC/PVC | 7 % |
| 262. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | |
|
PCC probable | 7 % |
| 263. | Drummond | |
|
BQ probable | 5 % |
| 264. | Calgary Crowfoot | |
|
PCC probable | 5 % |
| 265. | Jonquière | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 266. | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | |
|
NPD probable | 4 % |
| 267. | Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan | |
|
BQ probable | 4 % |
| 268. | Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 269. | Lévis—Lotbinière | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 270. | Oxford | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 271. | York—Durham | |
|
PCC probable | 4 % |
| 272. | Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 273. | Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 274. | Calgary Nose Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 3 % |
| 275. | Joliette—Manawan | |
|
BQ probable | 2 % |
| 276. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | |
|
Pivot PCC/NPD | 2 % |
| 277. | Calgary Signal Hill | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 278. | Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 279. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 280. | Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 281. | Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | |
|
PCC probable | 2 % |
| 282. | Tobique—Mactaquac | |
|
PCC probable | 1 % |